$5 NL HE 6-max: bluff catching?

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Jarud

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Hero??

villians line seems odd to me. should we hero with a 4/5ths pot river bet?
 
Aballinamion

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Hero??

villians line seems odd to me. should we hero with a 4/5ths pot river bet?
Thanks for sharing your hand. Preflop we are opening these pocket pairs almost a 100% of times from the CO. Villain calls, which means most of times that it doesn’t hold 88+ or KQ+, for these hands usually 3-bet preflop more than flat, to play a heads-up pot IP and not to give excellent odds for the players in the blinds.
Although isn’t common, yet this possibility of villain calling preflop with 99, TT, JJ exists. We can only have more certainty if we have more information about villain.
On the flop our check is almost standard with great part of our range, and on the turn comes a very weird move of villain, when it elects to check behind to get a free river card:
Maybe villain had a 9x and decided to call because of the Queen on the turn. Maybe he had a flush draw and decided to see a free river. We don’t expect villain to bet flop with 5x or 2x, we expect villain to be betting OTT in a high frequency in order to protect its value range... so it’s really strange.
The river hasn’t changed the board configuration and, as played, I think we could call this large bet to protect part of our value range of bluffs, such as possible missed SDs and FDs.
The hero call on the river is fine. Nonetheless, if we had elected to raise river I think we would be turning a strong value hand into a bluff. It was well played by both players, in spite of the showdown.
Thanks a lot for submitting this awesome hand to our community, and keep posting, is a great pleasure to be able to help!
Best regards;
 
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Jarud

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Thanks for sharing your hand. Preflop we are opening these pocket pairs almost a 100% of times from the CO. Villain calls, which means most of times that it doesn’t hold 88+ or KQ+, for these hands usually 3-bet preflop more than flat, to play a heads-up pot IP and not to give excellent odds for the players in the blinds.
Although isn’t common, yet this possibility of villain calling preflop with 99, TT, JJ exists. We can only have more certainty if we have more information about villain.
On the flop our check is almost standard with great part of our range, and on the turn comes a very weird move of villain, when it elects to check behind to get a free river card:
Maybe villain had a 9x and decided to call because of the Queen on the turn. Maybe he had a flush draw and decided to see a free river. We don’t expect villain to bet flop with 5x or 2x, we expect villain to be betting OTT in a high frequency in order to protect its value range... so it’s really strange.
The river hasn’t changed the board configuration and, as played, I think we could call this large bet to protect part of our value range of bluffs, such as possible missed SDs and FDs.
The hero call on the river is fine. Nonetheless, if we had elected to raise river I think we would be turning a strong value hand into a bluff. It was well played by both players, in spite of the showdown.
Thanks a lot for submitting this awesome hand to our community, and keep posting, is a great pleasure to be able to help!
Best regards;
Great lengthy analysis, thankyou!
 
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EarnDAStack

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Thanks for sharing your hand. Preflop we are opening these pocket pairs almost a 100% of times from the CO. Villain calls, which means most of times that it doesn’t hold 88+ or KQ+, for these hands usually 3-bet preflop more than flat, to play a heads-up pot IP and not to give excellent odds for the players in the blinds.
Although isn’t common, yet this possibility of villain calling preflop with 99, TT, JJ exists. We can only have more certainty if we have more information about villain.
On the flop our check is almost standard with great part of our range, and on the turn comes a very weird move of villain, when it elects to check behind to get a free river card:
Maybe villain had a 9x and decided to call because of the Queen on the turn. Maybe he had a flush draw and decided to see a free river. We don’t expect villain to bet flop with 5x or 2x, we expect villain to be betting OTT in a high frequency in order to protect its value range... so it’s really strange.
The river hasn’t changed the board configuration and, as played, I think we could call this large bet to protect part of our value range of bluffs, such as possible missed SDs and FDs.
The hero call on the river is fine. Nonetheless, if we had elected to raise river I think we would be turning a strong value hand into a bluff. It was well played by both players, in spite of the showdown.
Thanks a lot for submitting this awesome hand to our community, and keep posting, is a great pleasure to be able to help!
Best regards;

That is an absolutely brilliant analysis of the hand Aballinamion

"Maybe villain had a 9x and decided to call because of the Queen on the turn." For this part I assume you mean decided to check on the turn right? As villain was the one who took the aggressive line on both the flop and the rive.

I also agree with the River call, As said above the board texture doesn't change much with the river 9. He still has a wide range when he gets here on the river and you were beat with the 9 on the flop so I think it's a call.

Maybe my replay isn't working properly but I can't see what villain ended up having... Not that it matters, we're not supposed to be results oriented and I think the river call is the right play.


One side note I will add is I think people just stab a lot here as an exploit, villain will get a lot of folds after the check because most people won't protect their checking range properly and after PRF checks they are basically saying they have nothing. (But checking at a high frequency in your spot on the flop is the correct play but most people at low stakes wont know that and will bet blindly or bet their good hands and check everything else)
 
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Villains line is very consistent with 9x. I dont agree that the river doesnt change anything as it changes the relative hand strength of 9x and villains big river bet is consistent with that.

Having said that there are so many bluffs available and our hand looks fairly weak. So I think a call is a fine play.
 
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Villains line is very consistent with 9x. I dont agree that the river doesnt change anything as it changes the relative hand strength of 9x and villains big river bet is consistent with that.

Having said that there are so many bluffs available and our hand looks fairly weak. So I think a call is a fine play.
9x doesn't make up much of Button's cold calling range vs Cut Off
1678536169369
Hands with a Q aren't much of Hero's OOP flop floating range vs villains' stab
1678537189791

"Villains line is very consistent with 9x"

All of the 9x Button should be calling with are suited and there really aren't many of them, so the 9c on the river significantly reduces the number of value combos with a 9 in it, that's what we mean by it doesn't change the relative hand strength,

"I dont agree that the river doesnt change anything as it changes the relative hand strength of 9x and villains big river bet is consistent with that."

1678537370472

Button should only be betting small on the river, not to mention his large flop sizing is non-existent.

If you want to play poker this face up you're more than welcome at my table any time but please don't try and dissuade people from the theoretically sound way of approaching the game with comments like "Villains line is very consistent with 9x" 9x makes up some of his value range, he should also have some bluffs and some thinner value hands with the sizing he's supposed to be using.

You're free to then point out exploits but the "They always have it" mentality isn't going to help anyone
 
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9x doesn't make up much of Button's cold calling range vs Cut Off
View attachment 326487
Hands with a Q aren't much of Hero's OOP flop floating range vs villains' stab
View attachment 326488

"Villains line is very consistent with 9x"

All of the 9x Button should be calling with are suited and there really aren't many of them, so the 9c on the river significantly reduces the number of value combos with a 9 in it, that's what we mean by it doesn't change the relative hand strength,

"I dont agree that the river doesnt change anything as it changes the relative hand strength of 9x and villains big river bet is consistent with that."

View attachment 326489

Button should only be betting small on the river, not to mention his large flop sizing is non-existent.

If you want to play poker this face up you're more than welcome at my table any time but please don't try and dissuade people from the theoretically sound way of approaching the game with comments like "Villains line is very consistent with 9x" 9x makes up some of his value range, he should also have some bluffs and some thinner value hands with the sizing he's supposed to be using.

You're free to then point out exploits but the "They always have it" mentality isn't going to help anyone

Pretty sure I didnt say they always have it. I said it a call was fine as there are loads of bluffs.
 
Aballinamion

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Maybe villain had a 9x and decided to call because of the Queen on the turn." For this part I assume you mean decided to check on the turn right?
Yes, it was an errata. Indeed, I meant to say check, not call. Thanks for your observation! :)
 
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Pretty sure I didnt say they always have it. I said it a call was fine as there are loads of bluffs.
I just proved to you his line isn't consistent with 9x, it's just what YOU think it's consistent with. We know what his nutted hands are, villain played this hand poorly so his flop and river bet aren't consistent with anything. You saying it is and that the 9 on the river changes the board dynamic also isn't true. Hero's better hands than 9x on the flop that fall behind on the river 9 should have already taken a more aggressive check raise line on the flop as we should pretty much be checking our whole range leaving hands like AA KK QQ and JJ and 55 as our check raise value hands and we still have more 9x in our range than he does so the river 9 doesn't change much of anything. It means TT which we don't check raise often and the minimal amount of Qx hands we float with fall behind but that's a tiny portion of our range. You're seeing the river 9 hit and assuming that the Qx and TT we floated the flop with, hit on the turn (or was still ahead) is now behind again on the river but that's a tiny segment of the game tree where the river 9 has you seeing ghosts
 
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I just proved to you his line isn't consistent with 9x, it's just what YOU think it's consistent with. We know what his nutted hands are, villain played this hand poorly so his flop and river bet aren't consistent with anything. You saying it is and that the 9 on the river changes the board dynamic also isn't true. Hero's better hands than 9x on the flop that fall behind on the river 9 should have already taken a more aggressive check raise line on the flop as we should pretty much be checking our whole range leaving hands like AA KK QQ and JJ and 55 as our check raise value hands and we still have more 9x in our range than he does so the river 9 doesn't change much of anything. It means TT which we don't check raise often and the minimal amount of Qx hands we float with fall behind but that's a tiny portion of our range. You're seeing the river 9 hit and assuming that the Qx and TT we floated the flop with, hit on the turn (or was still ahead) is now behind again on the river but that's a tiny segment of the game tree where the river 9 has you seeing ghosts
You havent proved anything as this is 5NL and villain isn't playing GTO.

I am not sure why you are inferring that I think 'they always have it'.

My point was if he had 9x then this would be a typical line by villain at 5NL. So I think his line is consistent with what he is representing. That's not the same as saying he has lots of 9x in his range. He shouldn't do and hence I think a good spot to bluff catch.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Standard open. There is some argument for going smaller like 2,5BB, but at 5NL I think, its still fine to use 3BB, since more players are going to make calling mistakes on average compared to higher limits.

Flop
You can C-bet or check-call here. In order to be more difficult to play against its a good idea to mix it up and do a bit of both.

Turn
Happy to see it get checked through.

River
I have only glossed over the previous discussion, but to me the opponents line makes a lot of sense with a 9. On the flop he bet for value, on the turn he gets a little scared, because the Q is an overcard, and then on the river he improve to trips, and he go large for value. Its less likely, that a Q play this way, and much less likely that TT-JJ or a flopped set or two pair play this way. So his value range is kind of thin, and he can definitely have some bluffs, since you have not shown any aggression in the hand, and all the draws missed. So I hero call here and take a mental note on, what he shows up with.
 
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fundiver199

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Just want to add, that we dont need to attempt to play some perfect GTO like game in the micros. But its still important to at least be a little bit aware, if we are creating spots, where we end up folding almost 100% of our range. Most players will C-bet their best hands on the flop, so after check-calling Heros range is already kind of capped with 88 probably being one of the best if not the best made hand, we can have. On the turn Hero can sometimes have a Q, but many QX hands cant check-call the flop. Hands like KQ, QJ or QT are either C-bet or check-folded, unless they are of diamonds specifically. So when we arrive to the river, this hand is high in Heros range, and folding it to a less than pot sized bet would be very exploitable.
 
loafaBREAD

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I agree with @Station_Master here. V can have a ton of 9x (even though according to GTO he shouldn't... it's 5nl...). and his play is exactly consistent with a 9x.

V likely xs back many 5x as they beat fds.

Further more, your 8s don't block vs 89s, making this a poor hand to call with. I think we can fold and move on. If V is turning weak pairs into a bluff with a bxb line, we will soon find out and adjust.
 
rastapapolos

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I think that @EarnDAStack is right, there are only 2 nines out there compared to his whole range.
@Station_Master pointed that his line is consistant with 9, I'll add that Villain is trying to represent the nine but he could have some Ax/Kx of diamond for a busted FD, pocket 66/77/TT some Qx and A5s.
Hero triple checked this board which isn't optimal IMO and it opened the door for villain to take the initiative, and by doing so he gave the information that he has no Q or 9 nor AA/KK/QQ/JJ which IMO charge the draws OTF/T or value bet river.
Hero induced the bluff so calling OTR is mondatory.
 
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fundiver199

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Hero triple checked this board which isn't optimal IMO and it opened the door for villain to take the initiative, and by doing so he gave the information that he has no Q or 9 nor AA/KK/QQ/JJ which IMO charge the draws OTF/T or value bet river. Hero induced the bluff so calling OTR is mandatory.
Another point is, that when we check-call on the flop, then which better runout and action are we hoping for than this? Sure the best thing would be, that we spike a set on the turn, but that will only happen 1 in 22 times. The second best thing is, that Villain check back both turn and river. But that will also not happen very often in a cash game, when someone has called us on BTN. Typically a big part of the idea behind such a call is to use position to outplay the opponent postflop. Which by the way we should also regularly do ourselfes.

And next to these ideal but rare scenarios this is just about the best, we can hope for. The runout did not complete any draws, and while another overcard came, the board also paired with top card reducing the likelyhood, Villain has that. Plus he takes a line, which indicate, he probably has a least trips, which from pure combinatorics is far more difficult than having nothing, when he has not faced any aggression postflop.
 
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