$400 NLHE Full Ring: Bttm set on wet board

TenJack

TenJack

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Decided to test the waters of 2/5 today, ran into this hand. (Note this is not 2/4, there was no 2/5 option)

Hero, as usual, has LAG image. :D:D stack 175ish BB

Villain has been playing TAG, pretty much ABC poker, comes in raising with strong holdings. That is why this confused me so much. Stack: covers hero, i think around 300ish?

Villain tanks, limps from UTG
Action folds to hero in MP2
Hero raises to 20 with Js Jh
Action folds back around to villain.
Villain raises to 80.
Hero calls.

Flop: Ad Ks Jc pot: 172

Villain bets 150
Hero?


UGH! I don’t know what to think after the EP. Limp raise. I feel like that is aces a lot, maybe kings sometimes? Both of those have me crushed with 1 out or runners for Broadway on the board. I feel like this is a raise or fold already. It seems like this will end up being played for my entire stack, and is bottom set on such a wet board really good enough?
I fold, is that bad?
 
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quant1986

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If UTG has aces, I would expect UTG bets smaller or check/raise.
So I believe he is more likely to have KK,AK or QQ.


Yes I would raise the flop here, if villain shoves then I fold.
If called then I would hope to get a cheap showdown.
 
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Gildog89

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I actually don't mind folding your set here. The type of villain you described pretty much only check/3-bets AA. Maybe KK, but that has you crushed too. When you called pre, did you feel like you were set mining against a better pair? I think you were, and Villain isn't leading that flop with QQ imo.
 
TenJack

TenJack

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I was pretty sure i was set mining. If i hit a jack, i was gonna get a lot of action from AA or KK, and easy dump if i don't hit or a bunch of overs show up. I am not getting imediate odds, but i think this is a case in which our implied odds are through the roof.

The guy has been opening to 3-4 BB from UTG with most of his big aces and pairs, so it was really sorta suspicious preflop.
 
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RakeMyLife

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Villain's range conservatively: AA, KK, AK

Given his line and the combination of AK hands, I think you have to shove here. Rarely, if ever, should you try to sniff out a set over set.

Also, you shouldn't have ~$300 in 2/5. Try to stay above 100BB, and I certainly wouldn't go folding a flopped set while playing short.
 
TenJack

TenJack

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IDK what you mean? I was playing a 175bb stack, so around $875. Villain had a 300bbstack, which is $1500

I guess his range with AK included is 12 combos of AA, KK, and 16 combos of AK, but idk if he can do this with AK
 
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Gildog89

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I just think villain turned his hand face up pre flop. He knows hero is LAG, so he mixed things up with limp/raise with his premium pocket pair. If he mixed it up and has less, then good for him, next hand. I just doubt he's capable of it. Always good to be aware of your own image and how others will try to exploit you. I generally agree that you don't want to try to sniff out set over set, but here, with the table dynamics, I think its a good play.
 
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RakeMyLife

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IDK what you mean? I was playing a 175bb stack, so around $875. Villain had a 300bbstack, which is $1500

I guess his range with AK included is 12 combos of AA, KK, and 16 combos of AK, but idk if he can do this with AK


Ah, misread ur stack size bit. No problem.

So if villain has ~300, then he effectively has around $50 left in his stack. I'm not folding with that little behind. Like I said before, I think you lose money trying to fold set over set in the long run. If he does turn over AA or KK, then I'm thankful he was playing short!
 
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MrTerek

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Decided to test the waters of 2/5 today, ran into this hand. (Note this is not 2/4, there was no 2/5 option)

Hero, as usual, has LAG image. :D:D stack 175ish BB

Villain has been playing TAG, pretty much ABC poker, comes in raising with strong holdings. That is why this confused me so much. Stack: covers hero, i think around 300ish?

Villain tanks, limps from UTG
Action folds to hero in MP2
Hero raises to 20 with Js Jh
Action folds back around to villain.
Villain raises to 80.
Hero calls.

Flop: Ad Ks Jc pot: 172

Villain bets 150
Hero?


UGH! I don’t know what to think after the EP. Limp raise. I feel like that is aces a lot, maybe kings sometimes? Both of those have me crushed with 1 out or runners for Broadway on the board. I feel like this is a raise or fold already. It seems like this will end up being played for my entire stack, and is bottom set on such a wet board really good enough?
I fold, is that bad?


Depends is he EV+ reg or not. With LAG image he shoud let u bluff him, so AA KK 150 in 172 ?) AK AQ AJs or QQ. U cant fold JJ on AKJ, dude or fold Pre
 
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