NL Holdem $2(BB)
HERO ($475.15) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 31.2% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | Hands: 10879]
SB ($114.25) [VPIP: 7.7% | PFR: 5.1% | AGG: 50% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
BB ($475.11) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 20.5% | 3-Bet: 4.3% | Hands: 149]
STRDL ($247.46) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 17.9% | 3-Bet: 1.7% | Hands: 194]
EP ($380) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 25.8% | 3-Bet: 2.1% | Hands: 112]
MP ($457.96) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 21]
HJ ($412.71) [VPIP: 20.7% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 34.8% | 3-Bet: 10% | Hands: 58]
CO ($1117.67) [VPIP: 17.7% | PFR: 10.6% | AGG: 36.6% | 3-Bet: 4.8% | Hands: 141]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ Q♣

EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To $11, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $30, SB Folds, BB Folds, STRDL Folds, HJ Calls $19

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.71 effective]
Flop ($67): Q♥ T♦ 8♠
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $22 (Rem. Stack: 423.15), HJ Calls $22 (Rem. Stack: 360.71)

Turn ($111): Q♥ T♦ 8♠ J♣
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

River ($111): Q♥ T♦ 8♠ J♣ 4♦
HJ Bets $360.71 (allin), HERO Calls $360.71 (Rem. Stack: 62.44)

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

HJ shows: J♠ K♠

HERO wins: $832.42

I don't think anyone will be able to tell you if the call is profitable or not given only 58 hands of history. I haven't played 200NL online so my opinion may be off but given population tendencies from live poker and micros online I do not think this is a profitable call. Your call represents over 43% of the pot. I do not think the average player overbet jams on a bluff 43% of the time. If I had to guess I would say that this may happen maybe 1 in 4 times at the most. If it was that common, and almost half of unknown Vs were overbet jamming river on a bluff then you would not have posted the thread. You would have known that this was a common bluff spot. The fact that you did I think shows that this is not a common occurrence and you weren't sure what to make of the polarized overbet. You made your best guess and you were correct this time. But in my opinion if you make this call 10 times you will not win more than 4 of them. You will get shown straights and two pair and AQ and sets more than 60% of the time.

Great game, I congratulate you. You induced from the beginning the aggressiveness of a looser posture. From the preflop, the 3-bet size is completely correct from the last position. Then on the flop, simply control your terrain in the best way. Now the villain could call you with some semi/ lines of gutshots, and maybe some smaller couples. I think the turn check was a great idea, since you induced bluffs on the river. On the other hand, your king protected you 85% of the time + an upper straight block. I think it was a great job on your part.
Greetings.

Since this is a high stakes game, and the Villain is an unknown, I think, we should simply follow game theory and call at our minimum defense frequenzy (MDF). Nothing less but also nothing more. We have no reason to assume, he is bluffing to often or to rarely, so if we do anything else, we are just playing a guessing game.

He bet around 3x the pot, so our MDF is around 25%. Is this among the best 25% of hands to call with? Almost certainly no, since we also have sets, sometimes even a straight, we have some two pair, we have AA, KK and we have AQ. All those hands are better to call with than KQ, so this should have been a fold on the river.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

Since this is a high stakes game, and the Villain is an unknown, I think, we should simply follow game theory and call at our minimum defense frequenzy (MDF). Nothing less but also nothing more. We have no reason to assume, he is bluffing to often or to rarely, so if we do anything else, we are just playing a guessing game.

He bet around 3x the pot, so our MDF is around 25%. Is this among the best 25% of hands to call with? Almost certainly no, since we also have sets, sometimes even a straight, we have some two pair, we have AA, KK and we have AQ. All those hands are better to call with than KQ, so this should have been a fold on the river.

The bluff catching is an art in poker and sometimes surpasses conventional math. In this hand you can see how the villain was motivated, to bluff on the river. Why would a villain neglect so much a line formed, betting so hard and with the risk that we make an easy fold? + we have an major straight block that might want to fool us ÷ an 85% kicker protection + an appropriate size of adjustment in preflop, to show that we have some value in the flop and finally give up on the turn.

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

The bluff catching is an art in poker and sometimes surpasses conventional math. In this hand you can see how the villain was motivated, to bluff on the river. Why would a villain neglect so much a line formed, betting so hard and with the risk that we make an easy fold? + we have an major straight block that might want to fool us ÷ an 85% kicker protection + an appropriate size of adjustment in preflop, to show that we have some value in the flop and finally give up on the turn.

If you actually have a read, that someone is going abeshit crazy on the river, whenever you check back turn, and the runout is scary, sure you try to exploit that person by being a calling station. But if you actually have that read, you probably dont share the hand to a forum and ask, if it was profitable, because you already know.

Is the general poker population overbluffing in this spot? I dont think so. Does it matter, that we block AK? Actually not, because Villain dont have AK in his range, since he would have 4-bet preflop, at least most of the time. Also we have a ton of other hands, that block AK, like AA, KK and AQ, and if we call with all of these, we are almost certainly calling to much.

Was this a good bluff by Villain? Not really in my opinion, because his hand had at least some showdown value. So if he is bluffing with this hand, he is probably bluffing way to much. The funny thing is, sometimes high stakes poker players are surpricingly similar to fish in the sense, that they fight to much for pots. This hand should have gone check-check on the river. That is my honest opinion

I don't know what kind of art it is but I'm folding to a 4x riv overbet jam here without any reads at all
it's just stupid play by both players imo
unless you are rich af & having fun
btw in which software are these games played?

Originally Posted by Alucard

I don't know what kind of art it is but I'm folding to a 4x riv overbet jam here without any reads at all
it's just stupid play by both players imo
unless you are rich af & having fun
btw in which software are these games played?

I think this hand is a standard fold. I don't think it's stupid to catch a J of hj turned into a bluff. Rather, I think it was a fine reading, which a great player can have.

Originally Posted by Alucard

I don't know what kind of art it is but I'm folding to a 4x riv overbet jam here without any reads at all
it's just stupid play by both players imo
unless you are rich af & having fun
btw in which software are these games played?

This was played on Poker King - where a lot of chinese playing overly agressive.

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

I think this hand is a standard fold. I don't think it's stupid to catch a J of hj turned into a bluff. Rather, I think it was a fine reading, which a great player can have.

Thanks man,
Actually for any games other than this game and this kind of player pool this is a standard fold. As i dont have enough equity to catch a required equity of 43% , it just mean the opp need to bluff so much.

But on this board it just so tempting to have a bluff on the river. And with this sizing is very polarize, i can have AK here more than him. I just think a normal Tx straight will not bet with this size.


Actually i have experienced this kind of play in this site. Give another example here, which i cannot call and it is turn out to be somewhat similar situation.
Note: this is auto - stradle game so this time i was in stradle position.

NL Holdem $4(BB)
HERO ($660) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 27.6% | 3-Bet: 9.2% | Hands: 229]
MP ($825) [VPIP: 53.8% | PFR: 25.6% | AGG: 46.2% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 39]
HJ ($1079) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 47.6% | 3-Bet: 7% | Hands: 173]
CO ($1626) [VPIP: 19% | PFR: 7.6% | AGG: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 2.9% | Hands: 79]
BTN ($1018) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 22.2% | 3-Bet: 2.1% | Hands: 135]
SB ($2673) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 13.5% | AGG: 80% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
BB ($788) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 5.6% | AGG: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 73]

Dealt to Hero: J♥ Q♦

MP Raises To $28, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $19

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.43 effective]
Flop ($67): 7♠ 3♥ J♠
HERO Checks, MP Bets $45 (Rem. Stack: 752), HERO Calls $45 (Rem. Stack: 587)

Turn ($157): 7♠ 3♥ J♠ T♠
HERO Checks, MP Bets $79 (Rem. Stack: 673), HERO Calls $79 (Rem. Stack: 508)

River ($315): 7♠ 3♥ J♠ T♠ 2♦
HERO Checks, MP Bets $320 (Rem. Stack: 353), HERO Folds

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

MP shows Q♠ T♣
MP wins: $315

Originally Posted by ethan_tran82

Thanks man,
Actually for any games other than this game and this kind of player pool this is a standard fold. As i dont have enough equity to catch a required equity of 43% , it just mean the opp need to bluff so much.

But on this board it just so tempting to have a bluff on the river. And with this sizing is very polarize, i can have AK here more than him. I just think a normal Tx straight will not bet with this size.


Actually i have experienced this kind of play in this site. Give another example here, which i cannot call and it is turn out to be somewhat similar situation.
Note: this is auto - stradle game so this time i was in stradle position.

NL Holdem $4(BB)
HERO ($660) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 27.6% | 3-Bet: 9.2% | Hands: 229]
MP ($825) [VPIP: 53.8% | PFR: 25.6% | AGG: 46.2% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 39]
HJ ($1079) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 47.6% | 3-Bet: 7% | Hands: 173]
CO ($1626) [VPIP: 19% | PFR: 7.6% | AGG: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 2.9% | Hands: 79]
BTN ($1018) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 22.2% | 3-Bet: 2.1% | Hands: 135]
SB ($2673) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 13.5% | AGG: 80% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
BB ($788) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 5.6% | AGG: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 73]

Dealt to Hero: J♥ Q♦

MP Raises To $28, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $19

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.43 effective]
Flop ($67): 7♠ 3♥ J♠
HERO Checks, MP Bets $45 (Rem. Stack: 752), HERO Calls $45 (Rem. Stack: 587)

Turn ($157): 7♠ 3♥ J♠ T♠
HERO Checks, MP Bets $79 (Rem. Stack: 673), HERO Calls $79 (Rem. Stack: 508)

River ($315): 7♠ 3♥ J♠ T♠ 2♦
HERO Checks, MP Bets $320 (Rem. Stack: 353), HERO Folds

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

MP shows Q♠ T♣
MP wins: $315

I have never played there, but what are very aggressive Asian friends. 7x pre QTo? Is variance really the best drink out there? xD

Originally Posted by ethan_tran82

This was played on Poker King - where a lot of chinese playing overly agressive.

Is poker king not just an americas cardroom skin?

If not are all the players the kind of aggromaniacs you get at Freerolls?

Sounds very juicy

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

I have never played there, but what are very aggressive Asian friends. 7x pre QTo? Is variance really the best drink out there? xD

It is indeed .
Btw it is auto-stradle game so BB is 4 but with auto-stradle is 8 so the open size is still ok.

Originally Posted by ethan_tran82

NL Holdem $2(BB)
HERO ($475.15) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 31.2% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | Hands: 10879]
SB ($114.25) [VPIP: 7.7% | PFR: 5.1% | AGG: 50% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
BB ($475.11) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 20.5% | 3-Bet: 4.3% | Hands: 149]
STRDL ($247.46) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 17.9% | 3-Bet: 1.7% | Hands: 194]
EP ($380) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 25.8% | 3-Bet: 2.1% | Hands: 112]
MP ($457.96) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 21]
HJ ($412.71) [VPIP: 20.7% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 34.8% | 3-Bet: 10% | Hands: 58]
CO ($1117.67) [VPIP: 17.7% | PFR: 10.6% | AGG: 36.6% | 3-Bet: 4.8% | Hands: 141]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ Q♣

EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To $11, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $30, SB Folds, BB Folds, STRDL Folds, HJ Calls $19

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.71 effective]
Flop ($67): Q♥ T♦ 8♠
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $22 (Rem. Stack: 423.15), HJ Calls $22 (Rem. Stack: 360.71)

Turn ($111): Q♥ T♦ 8♠ J♣
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

River ($111): Q♥ T♦ 8♠ J♣ 4♦
HJ Bets $360.71 (allin), HERO Calls $360.71 (Rem. Stack: 62.44)

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

HJ shows: J♠ K♠

HERO wins: $832.42

Opponent dependent ofc.

If it's an opponent who's capable of running a bluff and attacking a capped range then it looks like yes. Also there aren't many hands he would be valueshoving like this (AK likely 4-bets preflop) so it's just the 9x hands of which there aren't all that many.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

Since this is a high stakes game, and the Villain is an unknown, I think, we should simply follow game theory and call at our minimum defense frequenzy (MDF). Nothing less but also nothing more. We have no reason to assume, he is bluffing to often or to rarely, so if we do anything else, we are just playing a guessing game.

He bet around 3x the pot, so our MDF is around 25%. Is this among the best 25% of hands to call with? Almost certainly no, since we also have sets, sometimes even a straight, we have some two pair, we have AA, KK and we have AQ. All those hands are better to call with than KQ, so this should have been a fold on the river.

This hand is infinitely better to call a super polarized shove like this than a set. When villain shoves for 3x pot on a 4 straight board he is repping a straight, and really repping AK or K9 trying to get a call out of 9x. I'd imagine a solver fold a set here 100% and is only bluff catching with 9x hands and hands that block AK/K9. Considering we're 200bbs deep and the 3bet is very small HJ has a wider than normal range.

If we're going to bluff catch here, this is a hand we should be doing it with some % of the time, although KT may be better since it also blocks T9 and villain is probably more likely to have T9s than he is to have Q9s.

Originally Posted by Kmason531

This hand is infinitely better to call a super polarized shove like this than a set. When villain shoves for 3x pot on a 4 straight board he is repping a straight, and really repping AK or K9 trying to get a call out of 9x. I'd imagine a solver fold a set here 100% and is only bluff catching with 9x hands and hands that block AK/K9. Considering we're 200bbs deep and the 3bet is very small HJ has a wider than normal range.


If we're going to bluff catch here, this is a hand we should be doing it with some % of the time, although KT may be better since it also blocks T9 and villain is probably more likely to have T9s than he is to have Q9s.

That is true, but the problem is, that if you assume, the Villain either has K9 or a bluff, then you assume, he is playing perfect poker. But in this situation Villain should never overbet jam the river with any hand, because he can not have the nuts (AK), and Hero can. So per definition this Villain is not playing perfect poker, and then only god knows, what he might be doing this with. Maybe he is going crazy with two pair for no reason, and then its obviously better to call with a set than just a pair.

But at the end of the day I fold anything less than K9 here, because its just not worth the risk getting 200BB in only hoping to catch someone in a wild bluff, he should not be making. If he is overbluffing in general, you will figure that out, as you play with him, and then you can find some better spots to hero call than this.

Originally Posted by Alucard

I don't know what kind of art it is but I'm folding to a 4x riv overbet jam here without any reads at all
it's just stupid play by both players imo
unless you are rich af & having fun
btw in which software are these games played?

I agree. This is so often the nuts, that without a read I just snapfold. Very hard to be good here 80% of the time.