This is a discussion on $400 NLHE 6-max: JKo With Second Nuts! within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; NL Holdem 2/4
BB ($1236) [VPIP: 44.7% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 17.6% | Flop Agg: 24.5% | Turn Agg: 6.1% | River Agg: 19.2% |
Standard 3x open from hero and BB Recretional player with a wide cold call range defends BB (reads so far on villian he 4bet rejam 100BB eff with AA pre).
Flop is 9hkhQh, villian donk leads 20 into 40 pot. hero calls with TP, flush draw, gutshot sd.
on Jc turn villian bets 1/3rd of pot. the reason i decided to call here was because the villians weak bet sizing was telling me that villian might be doing that with lot of Tx hands and Two pairs Q9,J9 etc (i could be wrong).
Now intresting 3h falls on river giving hero Second Nutflush, Villian comes out and bets super small on River?
What do u think?
I would probably make a very big increase on the turn since the board texture is favorable to our range. We're blocking the absolute nuts and neutralizing the V-rank bluffs. Then on the river I would call donk with any bet size. If the villain had the Ah it was just a bad beat.
Your recap at the bottom seems a bit off. According to the HH V donk leads huge on this flop for almost 80% pot, $20 into $26 instead of into $40 as you state. Since we have top pair, decent kicker, and a combo draw I agree that even vs this sizing we cant really fold and raising should only get called by better hands. Turn he slows down a bit betting just 1/2 pot and we've improved a little so we are kind of stuck calling again. River could be a small bet to induce but with the second nuts I think we still have to raise here for value. Not a lot of hands can continue though so I wouldn't make it more than $70. And if we get 3 bet it will be gross but there's a ton of Tx and smaller hearts and perhaps a set of 9s that can put another $40 or $50 on this river. We may even get action from 2 pair. Sometimes we'll run into the Ace and fold to the 3 bet, sometimes V will fold to our raise but I'd like to give V a chance to make a mistake with Tx especially the T of hearts. Also if they fold a strong hand and don't get to see if we had a heart it may get us more action in the future as players tend to only be able to make a few big lay downs before they get sticky or spew it off.