This is a discussion on $400 NLHE 6-max: ATo Commited by the turn! within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 2/4(BB)
BTN ($313) [VPIP: 25.4% | PFR: 8.1% | AGG: 33.5% | Hands:
Turn ($130): 2♥ 7♣ T♠ 2♠
HERO Bets $65 (Rem. Stack: $272), CO Raises To $130 (Rem. Stack: $77), HERO Raises To $337 (allin), CO Calls $77 (allin)
River ($674): 2♥ 7♣ T♠ 2♠ Q♦
CO shows: 8♦ 2♣
is the turn sizing good? or check is in play? and when villian min pops on the turn i had a soul read that villian turned trips but still question i ask is are we commited here or we can still find a fold?
In my opinion the flop bet was too big for this texture. I see you have taken an obtaining the optimal value line, but this is very risky because we have no information on this villain. Also this board is very dry, so we will only get many profitable folds from OOP and balanced calls. And this will be so, most of the time for NL400.
I'm not sure which hands we expect to be called to our push on the turn. It is true that we are committed, but that does not necessarily imply that we always have to give all our money to the villain. Let's not forget that we are defending strongly from preflop. We also have a pretty tight picture, and the villain's min raise is showing strong value on the turn. Even in the most optimistic scenario, we should have a higher value like J-J to bluff here, since it allows us to include the combos: AK; A-T and K-T in rank V. While thatblocking the least important combinations: J-Q; K-J; A-J. Instead A-T unlocks the combos: K-K; Q-Q and J-J. I think in this case we could consider the possibility making a profitable fold of exploitation on the river, if the villain decides to jam.
I agree that the flop bet might have been too much in this scenario against that board, unless your expectation is to take down the hand. You could have perhaps saved yourself some coin that would have made you less committed by the turn. The turn bet is understandable, but the re-raise to his min raise is what confuses me when your gut told you his hand strength. A call there would have left fold equity on the river after having some time to process the information on the final stage of the hand.