$400 NLHE 6-max: $2/$5 Nuts on turn vs. very good LAG, he checks out of turn

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baudib1

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2-5 game 7-handed

3 limps from passives and I complete SB with QTss. Very good LAG internet pro in BB checks.

Flop (pot $25): :kh4: :6h4: :js4:
I lead for $20, BB raises to $60, everyone folds. I have $650 and he has me well covered with about 3 racks in front of him ($1,500).

I call

Turn ($145): :ad4:

I check, he bets $100, I call

River ($345): :5s4:
He checks out of turn.

My plan was to instashove the river if the flush draw missed to totally polarize my range. Now I'm pretty sure he's not going got call a shove, so obviously I have to bet but how much?

BTW, I would C-R the turn against a lot of people but I feel pretty confident that he would instamuck because he knows what he's doing, it's hard for him to have Aces up or better having checked in the BB (He'd raise AJ+ over limps for sure) and turn check-raise is obviously the nuts most of the time.
 
bgomez89

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I'd prob pot river, makes it look like you're just trying to take down the pot since he checked out of turn
 
CuttleFish

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I think it comes down to how he checked out of turn. If it was clearly a mistake then he's pretty much going to lay it down no matter what you bet in which case I would take bgomez advice and make it an obvious attempt to steal with all the right "ah ha! you checked out of turn and now Im going to steal it" type moves.

On the other hand, if he is a pro, how likely is it that he has genuinely checked out of turn??? He could be angle shooting in which case he has no intention of checking and most likely thinks he is trapping you. In that case I would make a weak bet and let him come over the top.
 
JOEBOB69

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Yeah first make it very clear verbally that you seen him check out of turn.Maybe with a question.Then shove
Edit :nah shove
 
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baudib1

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Cuttlefish, that's like super triple range-merge leveling, you're overthinking it.

He obviously has very good showdown value and not a bricked draw (which he would bet) but his range is severely capped (probably KJ is the best hand he can have) so do we go for a value bet, which he can obviously call, or a bigger bet since our perceived range is much more polarized.

JoeB: I definitely made it clear, I said, "IT'S NOT YOUR TURN!"

then took a long time to do anything.
 
CuttleFish

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Cuttlefish, that's like super triple range-merge leveling, you're overthinking it.

He obviously has very good showdown value and not a bricked draw (which he would bet) but his range is severely capped (probably KJ is the best hand he can have) so do we go for a value bet, which he can obviously call, or a bigger bet since our perceived range is much more polarized.

That was wierd reading for me. I understood what each of the individual words meant but when you put them all together it might as well have been double-dutch. :)

I dont have all the poker terminology but this would be my thinking: All I know is that in the BB chances are he doesn't have a premium hand otherwise he would have raised pre-flop. His raise to $60 post flop means either he has percieved you as weak and is trying to steal, or else he hit some portion of the board. Flush draw, a set of 6's , maybe KJ or even QT.

Now, he is not checking out of turn on the flop or turn, but on the river. This is wierd for two reasons, firstly because he seems to know what he is doing, secondly becase there have already been 2 streets played so he is well aware you act before him so why check out of turn now?

Two scenarios, genuine mistake or angle shot. The rest of the thinking as per above post.
 
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baudib1

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It would just be incredible to think you could fool someone by checking KJ+ on the river when I could easily just check all my showdown-value hands behind (technically before him). I'm pretty sure he would never check back a flush draw here.
 
WVHillbilly

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Pot it or close to it. You're probably still going to get lots of folds but with the check out of turn he'll have to at least think about calling with all his hands that have some SD value.
 
JusSumguy

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I'm putting out a pot bet here.


-
 
Poker Orifice

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$350 (but be sure to say 'tree-fiddy')
 
CuttleFish

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i know its not good for the hand analysis, but when its done can you let me know what happened please? my thinking is so far off everyone elses i think.
 
CuttleFish

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It would just be incredible to think you could fool someone by checking KJ+ on the river when I could easily just check all my showdown-value hands behind (technically before him). I'm pretty sure he would never check back a flush draw here.

But wasn't that the point, he didnt check KJ on the river. He gave an indication that he would check on the river by checking out fo turn. He gave you information, the thing i am interested in is did he give it to you accidentally or on purpose.
 
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baudib1

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If I check his check has to stand so there's 0 chance he could be faking out by pretend checking. Just accept his check at face value.
 
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baudib1

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He thinks I'm the best player at the table other than himself and has pretty much told me this on multiple occasions. Also he would probably figure I'm the only person capable of making a huge bluff in this spot.
 
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baudib1

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So it sounds like I might have missed some value but not sure really. I don't think he liked the turn or the turn action at all.

I'm not sure he checks AT or better but he may have perceived my range to have a lot of nut hands after calling the turn.

I bet $175, which I thought was a good bet at the time. It probably looks too valuey but it'd be hard for him to fold any real hand given that the flush draw missed and his out-of-turn check obviously looks like weakness.
 
tenbob

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When I read the OP my initial thought was to bet $200. But if he will call that much why not a bit more, it also makes the bet look a little more bluffy.

I'd prob bet $200 in game, but if i thought about it a little more, i'd prob bet $325 or something.
 
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baudib1

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He tanked with K6. How much do you call there, given action?
 
tenbob

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Yea, i'd prob call close to pot given action w/2 pair.
 
WVHillbilly

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He tanked with K6. How much do you call there, given action?
I think if you bet pot he kicks himself in the ass for checking out of turn and talks himself into calling.
 
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baudib1

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I told him I was going to shove if he hadn't done that, and all he said was,"WOW."

He said he was definitely folding to a turn raise.
 
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