$4 NLHE Full Ring: this was during my shot to 4NL. not sure about my play though

[Babyface2194]

888 Poker - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: $4.24 (VPIP: 50.94, PFR: 18.87, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 53)
MP: $10.94 (VPIP: 70.91, PFR: 14.55, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 55)
MP+1: $6.82 (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP+2: $4.60 (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 14.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
CO: $4.00 (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (BTN): $5.31
SB: $4.00 (VPIP: 13.99, PFR: 8.39, 3Bet Preflop: 4.84, Hands: 143)
BB: $8.13 (VPIP: 20.75, PFR: 5.66, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
UTG: $1.38 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has K<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='black'>♣</font>

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.04, fold, MP+1 calls $0.04, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.16, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.12, MP+1 raises to $0.28, Hero calls $0.12, UTG+1 calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.90, 3 players) K<font color='red'>♥</font> 5<font color='black'>♠</font> 6<font color='red'>♦</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP+1 bets $0.08, Hero raises to $0.87, fold, MP+1 calls $0.79

Turn: ($2.64, 2 players) Q<font color='black'>♠</font>
MP+1 bets $0.04, Hero raises to $2.76, MP+1 calls $2.72

River: ($8.16, 2 players) 7<font color='red'>♦</font>
MP+1 bets $0.04, Hero raises to $1.40 and is all-in, MP+1 calls $1.36

MP+1 shows A<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='black'>♠</font> (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 82%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows K<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='black'>♣</font> (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 18%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins $10.32

 

[MinhANguyen]

Pre is okay given such good pot odds, but you need to be ready to fold even right away if he starts going nuts/potting it when you pair your K/Q. He has a PFR of 0, plays half his hands, and then limp-reraises. Going to be AA/some KK a lot here. Flop just call. He's not calling with a worse hand to your raise, and if he has AA, you're getting good odds to suck out and take his stack. It's unlikely UTG is going to make a move.

 

[John A]

Pre is okay given such good pot odds, but you need to be ready to fold even right away if he starts going nuts/potting it when you pair your K/Q. He has a PFR of 0, plays half his hands, and then limp-reraises. Going to be AA/some KK a lot here. Flop just call. He's not calling with a worse hand to your raise, and if he has AA, you're getting good odds to suck out and take his stack. It's unlikely UTG is going to make a move.

I don't about pre. You have odds to call if you were all-in, but what range are we giving someone who hasn't raised and is making a really small 3-bet here? Is it anything less than AQ+/QQ+? And if not, then pre to flop odds to hit something without reverse implied odds are super low. If he did have say AQ/QQ and had a pair on a K high flop, are you always stacking him? I think I'd rather have 89s or something in spots where we're trying to justifying calling based on pre-flop odds. At least that will translate into higher equity spots w/o reverse implied odds. Just never been a big fan of that pre-flop odds argument.

 

[teepack]

This is the danger of using HUDs. You guys are making an awful lot of assumptions about a guy based on a hand history of 11 hands!! His PFR raise was 0.0. So what? You've got 11 hands of data!

I think you played it well. You could have gotten overly aggressive pre-flop and upped his re-raise, but you didn't. I think he messed up when he didn't jam you after your post-flop re-raise. Would have been curious to see what you would have done if he jammed all-in after your post-flop raise.

Once the turn hit you weren't going anywhere. It was well played. You got max value.

 

[Trabendo_daze]

Given that KQs is a SC, and we have such good odds and we are position, I'm defffffinitely calling pre. Sure there are reverse implied odds for the K and the Q but even if we just keep in mind that he likely has QQ+ we can tread lightly when we make a pair. We're mostly looking for a straight or a flush here, and we can make judgments otherwise. For this reason I'm not raising flop. We're folding out any of his underpairs such as JJ/QQ and we are value-owning ourself against AK, KK, AA. Just call for the moment. Q is a decent card because now we beat AA but we don't beat much of his other range. Again I don't even know if we can raise that card. I'm just calling this down and getting to showdown as none of our flush and straight options have hit. You could make a case for raising turn as we block all sets that beat us, but otherwise there ya go.

 

[John A]

This is the danger of using HUDs. You guys are making an awful lot of assumptions about a guy based on a hand history of 11 hands!! His PFR raise was 0.0. So what? You've got 11 hands of data!

I think you played it well. You could have gotten overly aggressive pre-flop and upped his re-raise, but you didn't. I think he messed up when he didn't jam you after your post-flop re-raise. Would have been curious to see what you would have done if he jammed all-in after your post-flop raise.

Once the turn hit you weren't going anywhere. It was well played. You got max value.

You mean the danger of having extra information available? That's all you're doing in poker is making logical assumptions. Here we have someone that here only has 11 hands on, but has played 43% of his hands and not raised once. Logical assumption = likely a fish.

I don't think anyone cares about 0%. That's not the point. The point is, what hands is a fish going to raise this small OOP with? Usually strong hands. Every one in awhile some donkish hand.

KQs doesn't make straights as often as middle connectors. I used to have people run filters on this kinds of hands where they went, ya, I have great pre-flop odds so I'm calling here in this 3 or 4-bet pot. I've yet to see anyone lose less than their opening raise amount (say -300bb/100) in a decent sample. The reason being is because you're usually in bad shape, you don't have initiative, and you usually have a ton of reverse implied odds, or spots that even if you hit your hand you won't get paid. You're not playing limit poker, and you're not all-in. You need to be thinking in terms of longterm EV in these spots. I think this is a closer spot than some getting 5.8:1 pre, but I'd bet a nickle that for most players that aren't losing less than -300bb/100 (or in this case -400bb/100).

 

[Aces2w1n]

Calling 3bets is not a good habbit with kq. We often get dominated.

Id b folding

 

[newbie in training]

if you determine a fish...you can raise as much as youd like but be wary of cards completing draws also be VERY wary of a reraise

 

[Trabendo_daze]

Fair enough John, the data speaks volumes

 

[IPlay]

Grunching here, didn't read replies yet. This is an annoying spot pre but I think calling in position for this price is fine.

I really don't get why you are raising so large when he min bets flop and turn? What are you trying to get value from? Raising flop and turn is fine because his bets are basically checks but only raise to about 65% pot which leaves you a decent amount to shove river. You should read up about pot geometry. I tried to post an article but all I could find was videos and idk how CC feels about those being posted.

 

[John A]

Fair enough John, the data speaks volumes

Well I didn't present any data , but I'm going to put together some filters so people can look at this info. I'm not sure it can be done in HM2 though. I think only PT4.

For whatever reason a lot of people in no-limit began talking as if they were calling all-ins on tournaments or playing limit holdem. I'm not sure, but I assume it carried over from TV stuff. People didn't use to speak this way about these spots. We talked about it in terms of long term EV of calling. Which in some spots like this can be hard to quantify, but I mean even when you hit your hand, you're getting paid probably less than 6:1 versus the times you're behind or dominated. So you win a small pot in those times, and lose a big one most of the time (except the rare times you out turn or flop a monster). If we know for sure we're heads up in this spot, then it can make more sense. MW though, I just can't see it as being long term +EV.

 

[Trabendo_daze]

Oh I thought you said that you had people run filters and people usually lose in this exact spot. I'm curious to see what you come up with when you run the numbers. I had a pretty similar spot where I called a 3b squeeze IP with KQs and won on a K high board...very anecdotal but there's a data point.

 

[lukeellul92]

Since his 3bet was kinda small and you raised in position its fine to see a flop, but is it just me or are your bet sizes when you 3bet him horrendous?

Villain bets 8c so you pop to 87c? Why? don't you see how bluffy that looks.

The turn card saved you, because what's he calling you with preflop and then calling your ridiculous 3bet with on the flop that you beat? AK,KK,KQ,KJ at the very most I'd say. So you draw with one, beat one and are dominated by 2!

I think you played it badly, got lucky on the turn and ran into someone who can't get away from AA but thats just my 2c.

 

[MinhANguyen]

I don't about pre. You have odds to call if you were all-in, but what range are we giving someone who hasn't raised and is making a really small 3-bet here? Is it anything less than AQ+/QQ+? And if not, then pre to flop odds to hit something without reverse implied odds are super low. If he did have say AQ/QQ and had a pair on a K high flop, are you always stacking him? I think I'd rather have 89s or something in spots where we're trying to justifying calling based on pre-flop odds. At least that will translate into higher equity spots w/o reverse implied odds. Just never been a big fan of that pre-flop odds argument.

I call min 3-bets with hands like KQs because min 3-bets (not min limp-reraises) aren't always AA/KK but sometimes random hands. But I think you're right that this should have been a fold pre to a limp-reraise. He's going to hold a lot of our outs to our straights/possibly K outs, so I think folding is superior. I do think however we should call with any PP to set-mine and maybe decent SCs that make disguised hands and aren't blocked by his premiums.

 

[teepack]

You mean the danger of having extra information available? That's all you're doing in poker is making logical assumptions. Here we have someone that here only has 11 hands on, but has played 43% of his hands and not raised once. Logical assumption = likely a fish.

I don't think anyone cares about 0%. That's not the point. The point is, what hands is a fish going to raise this small OOP with? Usually strong hands. Every one in awhile some donkish hand.

KQs doesn't make straights as often as middle connectors. I used to have people run filters on this kinds of hands where they went, ya, I have great pre-flop odds so I'm calling here in this 3 or 4-bet pot. I've yet to see anyone lose less than their opening raise amount (say -300bb/100) in a decent sample. The reason being is because you're usually in bad shape, you don't have initiative, and you usually have a ton of reverse implied odds, or spots that even if you hit your hand you won't get paid. You're not playing limit poker, and you're not all-in. You need to be thinking in terms of longterm EV in these spots. I think this is a closer spot than some getting 5.8:1 pre, but I'd bet a nickle that for most players that aren't losing less than -300bb/100 (or in this case -400bb/100).

Statistically speaking, making assumptions about a player based on 11 hands of data is just not a real good idea, in my opinion. If I were to use a HUD, I would want to see a lot more hands before I start making decisions based on the data.

So are you guys saying he should have folded pre-flop because the other player's data indicated that he would only limp-re-raise with a monster?

 

[IPlay]

You know as much as I want to say calling cant be bad. KQ is the only premiumish hand that im actually losing money with long term. Been going through my database extensively and was pretty surprised to see that.

Maybe I just overvalue it in general. Have started folding it UTG in 6 max even.

 

[John A]

Statistically speaking, making assumptions about a player based on 11 hands of data is just not a real good idea, in my opinion. If I were to use a HUD, I would want to see a lot more hands before I start making decisions based on the data.

So are you guys saying he should have folded pre-flop because the other player's data indicated that he would only limp-re-raise with a monster?

You're always making logical assumptions based on whole field statistical norms. How many regs have you seen after 10-12 hands that are 43/0? I think I've seen 0 in my 11 years of playing online. So my logical conclusion is, he's not a reg. I'm not sure why this is even controversial to be honest.

Now we're calling someone who over limped and made a small re-raise that is likely a fish. He's either donking around or he has a monster. At this point with KQs, after calling all of this money pre-flop, your SPR isn't going to be good going to the flop. So you're in a spot like I said from the beginning where you're winning a small pot or losing your stack. You flop 2 pair ~ 2% of the time. And even when you flop hands like and the money goes in, your opponent will have re-draws sometimes too.

I think people are always looking for reasons to justify a call in no-limit, but if you think about the times you whiff, the fact you have no initiative in the hand, and the times you hit but are behind vs the time you actually outflop your opponent... if we really do the math with that SPR, it can't be long term +EV. The only thing OP has going for him is position, but it's a MW 3-bet pot which neutralizes that to a large degree.

 

[Babyface2194]

thanks so much for the replies guys. I do see now that my bet sizing was pretty horrible and i could have been crushed with some of his range. I will try and work on it. Yes 11 hands is a tiny sample but i had seen him call down monster pots with 7 high before that hand so i was of the genuine belief that i had him beat. calling on the turn was probably my best bet instead of massively over raising the pot. Could have probably let him bet all his chips away if i had just called.
You have all been of a great help and i would like to say thank you. I look forward to your comments on my future hands.