$4 NLHE Full Ring: 77 with SD on flop and facing aggression multiway.

[pruten]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18.5/7.4/1.4

Villain likes to call blinds but raise LP for the small sample. I put the villain on 22+ and any BW.

Flop c/r multiway I was thinking FD because of the size of the raise.

Turn I stopped thinking and was praying to hit my double gutshot SD or 7s.

How bad (equity) is this by street versus his range?

I felt dirty after this hand.

Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $4.62
BB: $4.68
UTG: $3.96
UTG+1: $4.00
MP: $1.20
MP+1: $4.09
Hero (CO): $4.30
BTN: $3.22

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 7:diamond: 7:club:

UTG raises to $0.12, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.12, fold, fold, BB calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.38, 3 players) 6:heart: 3:club: 5:heart:
BB checks, UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, BB raises to $1.18, fold, Hero calls $0.98

Turn: ($2.94, 2 players) 9:diamond:
BB bets $1.96, Hero calls $1.96

River: ($6.86, 2 players) 7:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets $1.04 and is all-in, BB calls $1.04

 

[bgomez89]

this is spew. Calling the flop raise is bad because you're pretty much toast. I highly doubt this type of player will c/r his FDs very often.

 

[acky100]

And if calling the flop raise was bad (which it is) calling a $2 turn bet when the pot is $5 in hope of hitting your draw is bad too, You have at very best 10 outs giving you a 20% chance of hitting, If you were calling $2 and the pot was $10 then you would have the odds to call but as it stands you are essentially paying 40% of the pot when you're only going to win < 20% of the time.

 

[pruten]

Thanks

Had to quit for the day after this hand. 20% equity is awful with the few outs. The more I think about it the FD thinking is just bad. No way it is a FD and probably over pair at best for me. Still same outs on both streets. c/f flop?

 

[ben_rhyno]

Nooo, you can't call a raise with 77 IP and fold on one of the only dream flops without a set. The BB can easily do this with a pair and FD or pair and SD and we have blockers to the straight draw aswell as an overpair. Pre, I think BB would 3-bet TT+ so we only need to worry about 88-99, sets, 2-pairs and draws, all of which we have good equity against on this flop. The turn changes nothing and actually gives us more equity so I don't mind the call, Infact I don't mind just getting the rest in here. As played, the river is pretty sick, but I think you have to check back. I don't have access to stove atm but I'm pretty sure if you input 77 vs 33,44,55,66,88,99 and all 1 pair +FD and all 1 pair +SD hands aswell as 35,36,56,67 we have the equity to call this turn and probably the river

Obv you lost and this will serve well for people saying to fold to the flop raise

 

[palmerd2]

Based on Villian's smooth call preflop we can assume that he has a speculative hand such as fours or fives, suited King Jack, a weak suited ace, or maybe even a suited one-gapper like Ten Eight.

It is an extremely wet, lowball flop. So when he check-raises the flop, we have to think of what hands he will do this with. Two overcards that are hearts, I would think he would just smoothcall. He may do this with a set but I would personally be more inclined to trap if I flopped a set of fives or sixes. So I am going to say he has any low suited Ace or some connector/gapper, and he is trying to push off the made hands so that he can take the flop without having to showdown. I think the smoothcall is ok here, because if the turn and river come high cards, you probably have him beat as I am putting him on a draw.

The turn changes little except that Seven-Eight just got there. You may consider shipping over his raise here on the turn, or just call and see if he will shut down on the river. I am not folding in this spot, though, as neither his baby aces nor his draws have hit.

The river is the worst card in the deck for you because your hand improves just enough to get you in trouble. I am probably reluctantly calling here just because the pot is so huge and you are beating two pair or a lower flopped set. Personally, I see the pot to big to fold even though pretty much every straight and flush possibility just got there. You are getting 7.7 to 1...

 

[ben_rhyno]

It's hero who bets the river. You can check behind and still win a large pot without investing your last 26BB, or lose the pot and have saved 26BB if you were beat. Nothing calls that you beat on the river. I am inclined to ship the turn tbh. We have blockers to 78 too. On the flop we are probably slightly behind or even in terms of equity vs something like A4hh or 84hh but on the turn those kinds of hands are unimproved and it is more +EV to get it in there.

 

[palmerd2]

You are right, Hero did ship the river. The error was mine.

I think that Villian's turn bet is so large that it polarizes his range. Am I correct that this is a spot where we are WA/WB?

 

[watchtowel]

Fold flop and fold turn I can't see how you could be ahead and you are getting bad odds. The flop action is a clear signal you are behind.

 

[ben_rhyno]

You are right, Hero did ship the river. The error was mine.

I think that Villian's turn bet is so large that it polarizes his range. Am I correct that this is a spot where we are WA/WB?

Are we ever WB on the turn though with a double gutter and 2nd pair? Against any of the lower sets we have at least 8 doublegutshot outs + 2 7's to hit, vs 99 we have 8 double gutshot outs, against 47 we have 7 outs to chop. I suppose we are Way behind here in that we could have just 14-15% to chop, or 16-22% vs the other sets. There are situations where we are actually ahead vs combo draws on the turn aswell or vs smaller 2 pair's where we still have many outs. I don't think we are ever way ahead though, but it's not a spot I enjoy folding

 

[ben_rhyno]

Fold flop and fold turn I can't see how you could be ahead and you are getting bad odds. The flop action is a clear signal you are behind.

If we are behind it's never by that much

 

[baudib1]

[] turn bet is big
[] NL4 villains polarize their range

if we're calling the flop I'm shoving the turn, undecided if flop call is good or not.

 

[ben_rhyno]

[] turn bet is big
[] NL4 villains polarize their range

if we're calling the flop I'm shoving the turn, undecided if flop call is good or not.

I think the flop call is the only contentious issue. Once we get past the flop and see a blank-ish turn we can get it in. I think the flop call is fine btw.

 

[bgomez89]

[ ] dream flop

 

[ben_rhyno]

Name a better flop except one with a 7 or 456, that post offered no advice to OP or an explanation to me

 

[bgomez89]

You made it sound like the flop is amazing for us when really we only have a gutterball. I dont see a player who is this passive ever raising a6 in this situation or anything worse than 77. Saying its a dream flop sounds like you're trying to justify making a call with such a weak draw(because I highly doubt we're ahead so we're drawing) even though we aren't deep and we may not be getting the correct odds(unless you add in implied odds I guess)

 

[ben_rhyno]

We don't just have a draw, we have an overpair + gutshot, unless villains range is solely 88+ containing no combo's of A-10hh, KQ-Thh

 

[bgomez89]

I'm not including FDs because I don't think he has those

 

[ben_rhyno]

A4hh, A3hh? Neither will ever fold

 

[bgomez89]

That would be such a small part of his range it might not even be relevant. Could you stove it for me? I'm at work. Something like 88-jj sets and a4/3hh

 

[watchtowel]

There is no way I am putting this guy on draws or overcards, I think that's wishful thinking. Giving his flop actions He looks like he has a set or 88+ overpair. We are way behind these.

When there is a bet and a call on the flop why would big draws want to chase away action? They love multiway pots. Ax pairs look unlikely to me, they would be worried on the flop and wouldn't normally be confident in their hand. A hand like A3 of hearts maybe but am I right in thinking you are flipping against.

 

[ben_rhyno]

ok:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
40,590 games 0.001 secs 40,590,000 games/sec
Board: 6h 3s 5h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.376% 32.09% 00.29% 13024 117.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 67.624% 67.33% 00.29% 27331 117.50 { JJ-88, 66-33, Ah4h, Ah3h }

Adding in more likely hands:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
99,990 games 0.002 secs 49,995,000 games/sec
Board: 6h 3s 5h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.892% 40.08% 00.81% 40073 814.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 59.108% 58.29% 00.81% 58288 814.50 { JJ-88, 66-33, Ah4h, Ah3h, 74s, 64s, 54s, 42s+, 74o, 64o, 54o, 42o+ }

 

[bgomez89]

Hm. I think I can agree with that range you gave except I don't think he raises 44 or 54

 

[ben_rhyno]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
82,170 games 0.002 secs 41,085,000 games/sec
Board: 6h 5h 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.373% 33.44% 00.93% 27478 766.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 65.627% 64.69% 00.93% 53159 766.50 { JJ-88, 66-55, 33, Ah4h, Ah3h, 74s, 64s, 42s+, 74o, 64o, 42o+ }

Then on the turn:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
3,520 games 0.001 secs 3,520,000 games/sec
Board: 6h 5h 3s 9d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.599% 36.82% 00.78% 1296 27.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 62.401% 61.62% 00.78% 2169 27.50 { JJ-88, 66-55, 33, Ah4h, Ah3h, 74s, 64s, 42s+, 74o, 64o, 42o+ }

And River:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
76 games 0.005 secs 15,200 games/sec
Board: 6h 5h 3s 9d 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.632% 27.63% 00.00% 21 0.00 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 72.368% 72.37% 00.00% 55 0.00 { JJ-88, 66-55, 33, Ah4h, Ah3h, 74s, 64s, 42s+, 74o, 64o, 42o+ }

River is a clear check, but I'm happy getting it in on the turn given the money in the pot