€4 NLHE 6-max: UTG vs BTN, missed flush draw with 2nd pair on turn/river AA runout

Q

quant1986

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€4 NLHE 6-max: UTG vs BTN, missed flush draw with 2nd pair on turn/river AA runout

Run It Once Poker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG (Hero): €4.57 (114 bb)
MP: €6.36 (159 bb)
CO: €4.00 (100 bb)
BU: €7.03 (176 bb)
SB: €5.32 (133 bb)
BB: €12.95 (324 bb)

Pre-Flop: (€0.06) Hero is UTG with Q K
Hero raises to €0.10, 2 players fold, BTN calls €0.10, 2 players fold

Flop: (€0.26) 4 Q 8 (2 players)
Hero bets €0.15, BTN calls €0.15

Turn: (€0.56) A (2 players)
Hero bets €0.38, BTN calls €0.38

River: (€1.32) A (2 players)
Hero bets €0.83, BU folds

My river plan is a bet-fold, target values from sticky QJ,QT.
Villain could have some AhXh combos - but I would need to pay anyway as most would bet river if I check back.

Also unlikely villain would raise-bluff as I can have all the boats in this spot as well.

Villain is slightly loose preflop - no other read

How would you play?
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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Great river value bet.

I like pre-flop and flop a lot too. Generally I check turn in this spot, because it will usually be tough to get 3 streets of value from worse hands. So by checking the turn, we allow him to bluff / bet his floats, and can then try to get paid off on the river if he checks back turn. We also don't have to worry much about giving a free card with this particular combo.
 
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fundiver199

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I would also check-call this turn. I think, you are focusing to much on the hands, that are just worse than yours like QJ/QT. How often does he really have exactly that? Probably not very often, especially since you block them, and if he called with anything other than the suited combos, that would be extremely loose and frankly bad.
 
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quant1986

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Plugged this hand into solver. It agrees turn should be a check-call for this specific hand if BTN pre-flop calling range is 17.5% or tighter

Villain had Th8c in this hand so wider than normal
 
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