€4 NLHE 6-max: Stinky 5bet pot

[ventrolloquist]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.04(BB)
SB ($4.02) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | hands: 13]
BB ($9.63) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 10.8% | AGG: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
UTG ($3.51) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 30% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($4.38) [VPIP: 33.6% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 30.7% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Hands: 417]
CO ($4.36) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.4% | 3-Bet: 8.6% | Hands: 175]
BTN ($7.39) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 34.8% | 3-Bet: 4.7% | Hands: 106]

Dealt to Hero: A:diamond: K:heart:

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.12, CO Raises To $0.36, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.34, BB Calls $0.32, HERO Raises To $1.36, CO Raises To $4.36 (allin), SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $3

Flop ($9.44): T:club: Q:spade: 4:heart:

Turn ($9.44): T:club: Q:spade: 4:heart: K:club:

River ($9.44): T:club: Q:spade: 4:heart: K:club: 7:club:

Spoiler

CO shows: Q:heart: Q:diamond:

CO wins: $9.32

So I equilabbed this and I barely had odds to call (Something like half a percent equity edge vs a 5bet range of AKo, AKs, AA, KK, QQ.

I feel like I made a huge mistake calling here, any advice on how to approach situations like this? What % Pot Size Bet Shove should I be willing to call preflop with AKo vs. typical 5bet shove ranges? Is his QQ shove a bit loose?

Also, I realize I should have 4bet squeezed bigger, just wondering how much bigger?

 

[LSTBrand]

AK

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.04(BB)
SB ($4.02) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 13]
BB ($9.63) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 10.8% | AGG: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
UTG ($3.51) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 30% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($4.38) [VPIP: 33.6% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 30.7% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Hands: 417]
CO ($4.36) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.4% | 3-Bet: 8.6% | Hands: 175]
BTN ($7.39) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 34.8% | 3-Bet: 4.7% | Hands: 106]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ K♥

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.12, CO Raises To $0.36, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.34, BB Calls $0.32, HERO Raises To $1.36, CO Raises To $4.36 (allin), SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $3

Flop ($9.44): T♣ Q♠ 4♥

Turn ($9.44): T♣ Q♠ 4♥ K♣

River ($9.44): T♣ Q♠ 4♥ K♣ 7♣

Spoiler

CO shows: Q♥ Q♦

CO wins: $9.32

So I equilabbed this and I barely had odds to call (Something like half a percent equity edge vs a 5bet range of AKo, AKs, AA, KK, QQ.

I feel like I made a huge mistake calling here, any advice on how to approach situations like this? What % Pot Size Bet Shove should I be willing to call preflop with AKo vs. typical 5bet shove ranges? Is his QQ shove a bit loose?

Also, I realize I should have 4bet squeezed bigger, just wondering how much bigger?

AK, looks good but play worth

 

[ventrolloquist]

AK, looks good but play worth

I know, it didn't feel like a comfortable call at all. I don't usually put much value in AK, but it felt like with all the money in the pot I would have decent pot odds. Just don't have the mathematical prowess to calculate on the fly lol

If I had 4bet bigger I would have had more fold equity and I would have actually had good odds to call a shove vs. a loose 5bet range

 

[Aballinamion]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.04(BB)
SB ($4.02) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 13]
BB ($9.63) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 10.8% | AGG: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
UTG ($3.51) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 30% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($4.38) [VPIP: 33.6% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 30.7% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Hands: 417]
CO ($4.36) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.4% | 3-Bet: 8.6% | Hands: 175]
BTN ($7.39) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 34.8% | 3-Bet: 4.7% | Hands: 106]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ K♥

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.12, CO Raises To $0.36, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.34, BB Calls $0.32, HERO Raises To $1.36, CO Raises To $4.36 (allin), SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $3

Flop ($9.44): T♣ Q♠ 4♥

Turn ($9.44): T♣ Q♠ 4♥ K♣

River ($9.44): T♣ Q♠ 4♥ K♣ 7♣

Spoiler

CO shows: Q♥ Q♦

CO wins: $9.32

So I equilabbed this and I barely had odds to call (Something like half a percent equity edge vs a 5bet range of AKo, AKs, AA, KK, QQ.

I feel like I made a huge mistake calling here, any advice on how to approach situations like this? What % Pot Size Bet Shove should I be willing to call preflop with AKo vs. typical 5bet shove ranges? Is his QQ shove a bit loose?

Also, I realize I should have 4bet squeezed bigger, just wondering how much bigger?

Hello there Nick. Well, considering your own stats, which is something we should never forget, our own image at the table/tables, and the data you provided us HERO ($4.38) [VPIP: 33.6% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 30.7% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Hands: 417], we must assume that at the micros, your opponents that also have HUD display are going to level quite a bit versus your ranges.
If this is a 6-MAX table game you are overlimping, overcalling, over doing anything, that in the long run cannot be profitable, because we open many doors and windows for our opponents to exploit our ranges.
VPIP of 33% for a 6-MAX table will not get too much respect. If this is your intention, try to look like a weak player to get exploited, well, be prepared for high variance journeys! Not saying anywhere that it is right or wrong, just trying to widen the prisma.
PFR of nearly 29%, which, pheeew, player can 3-bet you with you 72o in some situations and you will be forced to fold a good portion of your 29% preflop raise range and 33% preflop calling range.
Consider your own stats, 3-bet of 8%, 99+, A9s+, KJs+, AJo+, give or take, so your game is very straightforward.
I am not god to have information of what Villain was thinking, or if it really has some HUD display, whatever, shoving QQ is versus your range is kindda standard.
If you really have 8% 3-bet range, many hands will find themselves in trouble, or to find a call here, and those hads are exactly 99, A9s, ATs, AJs, AQs, AKo, AQo, AJo, TT and JJ.
Of course we are almost never folding to a 5-bet jam at the micros holding QQ+ but with all the hands listed above our hands shake and we think we are playing MTTs, going all-in PF in a coin flip (best scenario) situation.
So, we are never winning here, unless Villain is bluff-shoving AQ, AJ, whatever. Any other hand, such as a PP, has huge ammount of value against AK, and it is better to be holding 22 in a situation like this than AK, because AK needs to hit 30% of boards to get good, and 22 doesn't need to hit anything, it is already winning of all broadways.
Calling all-in preflop, at a 6-MAX table, out of position, 100 blinds es, holding AKo, we are simply paying more rake, IMO. I guess that even at 100 NLHE is not healthy to be going in a high frequency, of course, calling all-in preflop mostly dominated. Why? Because the rake structure is heavy and we are always paying.
I don't know what some guys have on their minds when they speak like Doug Polk when it comes to mid and low stakes: 'we should try to get more flops'. No!!!
Even at 200 NLHE, the rake structure is very heavy, which does not allow us to take many flops, because we know we are going to miss a fair chunk of them, no matter how good we think we play, so we must look for the most optimal spots and try to steal the blinds a lot to compensate this high rake structure, not taking a lot of flops and going all-in preflop as if we were playing 5000 NLHE.
I ask you a very simple question: considering your actual winrate, how many hands/hours would/do you need to play in order to make 100 blinds? If takes only seconds, okay, if it starts to take minutes to recover such a dispensable loss, we should know what the hell are we doing.
I like AKo when I am Hero and I am jamming for bluff. However, I know very well that many players at the micros would never fold to a 5-bet jam with a of pocket pairs, so I avoid doing it. Our edge is trying to make the game postflop, when we go all-in preflop we give ourselves up to the high swings of variance, and it is hard to recover 100 blinds, perpads not at 4 NLHE, 2 NLHE, but at 100 NLHE it takes quite a few hours for a regular to make 100 blinds, in the long run.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I think I like the 4bet sizing as it's large enough to punish the cold callers but small enough to set up a trivial flop jam vs CO if he continues. It's also small enough to find a fold if we get 5 bet jammed on. I think I would continue with my AKs and fold my AKo here until I have better reads. 5 bets are incredibly strong in the micros and usually KK+, AK. This guy is a bit wider with QQ in there but even if we do a range analysis our equity vs QQ+, AK is 39%. Our $3 call is 32% of the $9.44 pot but in real time this is super close to estimate. Technically your call was correct since he had QQ in his range but with 175 hands and that action where there were 4 players in the hand after the 3 bet I think some of our A and K outs are dead so I'm folding.

 

[quant1986]

I think I like the 4bet sizing as it's large enough to punish the cold callers but small enough to set up a trivial flop jam vs CO if he continues. It's also small enough to find a fold if we get 5 bet jammed on. I think I would continue with my AKs and fold my AKo here until I have better reads. 5 bets are incredibly strong in the micros and usually KK+, AK. This guy is a bit wider with QQ in there but even if we do a range analysis our equity vs QQ+, AK is 39%. Our $3 call is 32% of the $9.44 pot but in real time this is super close to estimate. Technically your call was correct since he had QQ in his range but with 175 hands and that action where there were 4 players in the hand after the 3 bet I think some of our A and K outs are dead so I'm folding.

This should be a -EV call as played even without rake consideration.
Yes the equity is 38.8% [AdKh vs QQ+,AKs,AKo]
But hero win % is 18.14% and tie % is 20.7% with pot size 9.44
EV = 9.44*0.1814 + 9.44*0.5*0.2068 - 3 = -0.31

 

[c0rnBr34d]

This should be a -EV call as played even without rake consideration.
Yes the equity is 38.8% [AdKh vs QQ+,AKs,AKo]
But hero win % is 18.14% and tie % is 20.7% with pot size 9.44
EV = 9.44*0.1814 + 9.44*0.5*0.2068 - 3 = -0.31

Excellent point! EV >>> Equity.

 

[quant1986]

Excellent point! EV >>> Equity.

Interesting with AdKd, the EV is positive (without rake) so you are spot on

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Interesting with AdKd, the EV is positive (without rake) so you are spot on

That's pretty cool. I should have taken it to the next level like you did and done EV calcs for both cases but I just kind of winged it based on the AKo equity. Not sure if it was a lucky guess or finally getting a feel for in game EV dynamics. Probably a lucky guess lol.

 

[fundiver199]

It is somewhat marginal but given the following factors I am also getting it in with AKo here:

* You are playing 6-max
* The opponent is a LAG
* There is 18BB of dead money in the pot

 

[ventrolloquist]

Hello there Nick. Well, considering your own stats, which is something we should never forget, our own image at the table/tables, and the data you provided us HERO ($4.38) [VPIP: 33.6% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 30.7% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Hands: 417], we must assume that at the micros, your opponents that also have HUD display are going to level quite a bit versus your ranges.
If this is a 6-MAX table game you are overlimping, overcalling, over doing anything, that in the long run cannot be profitable, because we open many doors and windows for our opponents to exploit our ranges.
VPIP of 33% for a 6-MAX table will not get too much respect. If this is your intention, try to look like a weak player to get exploited, well, be prepared for high variance journeys! Not saying anywhere that it is right or wrong, just trying to widen the prisma.
PFR of nearly 29%, which, pheeew, player can 3-bet you with you 72o in some situations and you will be forced to fold a good portion of your 29% preflop raise range and 33% preflop calling range.
Consider your own stats, 3-bet of 8%, 99+, A9s+, KJs+, AJo+, give or take, so your game is very straightforward.
I am not god to have information of what Villain was thinking, or if it really has some HUD display, whatever, shoving QQ is versus your range is kindda standard.
If you really have 8% 3-bet range, many hands will find themselves in trouble, or to find a call here, and those hads are exactly 99, A9s, ATs, AJs, AQs, AKo, AQo, AJo, TT and JJ.
Of course we are almost never folding to a 5-bet jam at the micros holding QQ+ but with all the hands listed above our hands shake and we think we are playing MTTs, going all-in PF in a coin flip (best scenario) situation.
So, we are never winning here, unless Villain is bluff-shoving AQ, AJ, whatever. Any other hand, such as a PP, has huge ammount of value against AK, and it is better to be holding 22 in a situation like this than AK, because AK needs to hit 30% of boards to get good, and 22 doesn't need to hit anything, it is already winning of all broadways.
Calling all-in preflop, at a 6-MAX table, out of position, 100 blinds es, holding AKo, we are simply paying more rake, IMO. I guess that even at 100 NLHE is not healthy to be going in a high frequency, of course, calling all-in preflop mostly dominated. Why? Because the rake structure is heavy and we are always paying.
I don't know what some guys have on their minds when they speak like Doug Polk when it comes to mid and low stakes: 'we should try to get more flops'. No!!!
Even at 200 NLHE, the rake structure is very heavy, which does not allow us to take many flops, because we know we are going to miss a fair chunk of them, no matter how good we think we play, so we must look for the most optimal spots and try to steal the blinds a lot to compensate this high rake structure, not taking a lot of flops and going all-in preflop as if we were playing 5000 NLHE.
I ask you a very simple question: considering your actual winrate, how many hands/hours would/do you need to play in order to make 100 blinds? If takes only seconds, okay, if it starts to take minutes to recover such a dispensable loss, we should know what the hell are we doing.
I like AKo when I am Hero and I am jamming for bluff. However, I know very well that many players at the micros would never fold to a 5-bet jam with a of pocket pairs, so I avoid doing it. Our edge is trying to make the game postflop, when we go all-in preflop we give ourselves up to the high swings of variance, and it is hard to recover 100 blinds, perpads not at 4 NLHE, 2 NLHE, but at 100 NLHE it takes quite a few hours for a regular to make 100 blinds, in the long run.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Hi Carlos, thanks for taking the time to reply and offer your insight . Will go over it in more detail soon. As for my own stats, they are skewed by heads up and shorthanded games since I played a lot at wierd times of the day when traffic is low (especially fast fold which often has 3 players per table). And then I hadn't played a large enough sample to get my stats down. I play more like 23/20 at most

Gotta consider table size before you evaluate vpip pfr [emoji4]

I never overlimp or call much at NL4 because there are a lot of squeezers. I also call pretty tight from BB due to rake

 

[ventrolloquist]

I think I like the 4bet sizing as it's large enough to punish the cold callers but small enough to set up a trivial flop jam vs CO if he continues. It's also small enough to find a fold if we get 5 bet jammed on. I think I would continue with my AKs and fold my AKo here until I have better reads. 5 bets are incredibly strong in the micros and usually KK+, AK. This guy is a bit wider with QQ in there but even if we do a range analysis our equity vs QQ+, AK is 39%. Our $3 call is 32% of the $9.44 pot but in real time this is super close to estimate. Technically your call was correct since he had QQ in his range but with 175 hands and that action where there were 4 players in the hand after the 3 bet I think some of our A and K outs are dead so I'm folding.

Thanks for explaining, I had a gut feeling I was going to get wrecked by an all in range and 2 callers but I guess I tried finding a reason to call (basically because the pot was juicy from the two 3 bet callers, who I didn't expect to be calling with too strong a range given I'd seen them limping, but who really knows, if they call a 3 bet they might actually hold an ace so you're right)

I sometimes need to trust my gut feeling more than overthink spots like this. This happened to me once in a tournament when somone who hadn't limped even once suddenly limped UTG and I shoved with 99 because it was "correct", and he flipped over AA.

 

[ventrolloquist]

That's pretty cool. I should have taken it to the next level like you did and done EV calcs for both cases but I just kind of winged it based on the AKo equity. Not sure if it was a lucky guess or finally getting a feel for in game EV dynamics. Probably a lucky guess lol.

Hi guys, can somone explain this EV equity discrepanacy you are discussing?

Also, how would I factor rake into the calculation?