Small bet on the river from very loose (passive) fish. Pot odd is 6.25. Very good board for bluffing, so I thought this is just an attempt to steal the pot. Help me to do some calculations.


iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 195.25 BB (VPIP: 25.53, PFR: 17.02, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 96)
Hero (SB): 242.5 BB
BB: 126.75 BB (VPIP: 26.28, PFR: 16.34, 3Bet Preflop: 3.66, Hands: 735)
UTG: 125 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 3.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
CO: 84 BB (VPIP: 53.70, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♣ A♦

fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, CO calls 4 BB

Flop: (11 BB, 2 players) 6♦ 2♠ Q♣
Hero bets 7.5 BB, CO calls 7.5 BB

Turn: (26 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (26 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero checks, CO bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

CO shows Q♥ 9♠ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 42%, Flop 88%, Turn 93%)
Hero mucks 8♣ A♦ (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 58%, Flop 12%, Turn 7%)
CO wins 31.25 BB

Yes

It is profitable because the price is very cheap (15% of the boat) and also considering the characteristics you mention.
And if the bet on the river were 80% of the pot?
I think that in that case some aspects should be considered:
You block ax color and that is good, but not very good, since that villain could represent him through several combos that defeat you (Qx; Jx).
Do not forget that a phantom line opens for the villain with 9-T, which could be another possibility, although more faraway.
Even any weak double pair would make the villain winner at this time.

Probably yes but im not a fan of the iso it's a tiny bit loose for me.

As he played it, it looks like villain has a small pair here. Since he limp called pre, it could be 56, 67, maybe A6s.

On the flop of course a queen would call, but they'd bet out on the turn (they'd try to make a little more money than this guy)

For the price it's ok, because there are believable worse hands. Though you'd have to figure you're probably beat, its ok because you are getting a good price to call.

Preflop I prefer to just complete with this hand to keep the pot as small as possible. I dont expect a fish to limp-fold very often, and being out of position with A8 offsuit suck. As played flop and turn is fine. On the river I dont think, we are good very often. But he is giving us such a good price, that we have to call and pay him off, even it sucks.

Be wary of playing mediocre hands so aggressively when out of position vs bad players