$4 NLHE 6-max: folding a boat

[Jarud]

iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat
Astou18 (UTG): €1.15 (29 bb)
vanko1979 (MP): €0.93 (23 bb)
MARKOBII (CO): €4.48 (112 bb)
TheDreadLlama (BU): €16.62 (416 bb)
LOUBANEZ (SB): €8.00 (200 bb)
BETTOPADHER (BB): €4.55 (114 bb)

main villian playing 53/13/2 vpip/pfr/ag (68hands)
I took so long to decide what to do on the river the clock ran out. I think folding was correct (maybe) what do you guys think?
I decided to just call in the sb pre flop as I was getting a good price to hit my set with probably enough implied odds.
I lead the flop to try and get value from draws and kings, I didn't want the flop to check round for free and another card to peel off completing some draws.
not the best turn card but still ahead of villians range at this point I think?
Basically betting for value on this river, what does villians range look like at this point?
does a random Ace call my flop bet? (worth noting villains fold to flop Cbet is only 44)
does a random Ace Jam this river?
The only logical hands that I can think of are AJ and A7, unless this guy was slowplaying a hand like JJ.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Fine with just calling and taking a setmine out of position.

Flop
The SPR is around 10, and for that reason I prefer a check-raise rather than a donk bet. You want to try and get stacks inside here, and being in the SB is ideal for a check-raise, because everyone behind has a chance to fall in the trap.

Turn
As played nothing else to do here than bet for value again. Sizing looks fine. QT got there, so if he raise, you are probably only calling rather than stacking off, and hoping for the board to pair.

River
Board did pair but with an ace, which is not the absolute greatest thing, because now some better boats are possible. Still betting for value though, and I think, you have to call it off as well. Its important to remember, that you are not calling to win the pot. You are calling to win it often enough, which is somewhere between one out of four or five times.

And while I dont think, this is ever a bluff, there are some hands, he might be overplaying. The turned straight with QT. AQ or AT, which called on the flop with a gutshot and turned top pair. These hands are possible, and some of he boats like AA, KK, AK and even JJ would often have 3-bet pre.

Very few players just call a mini-raise with these hands to take a multiway flop. So realistically you lose to AJ (6), A7 (2) and maybe JJ (3), which is only 8-11 combos. Your hand is simply "to strong to fold". A live player might say something like "you probably have me beat, but I dont think, I can fold this hand - I call".

Just as a general rule if you never fold a full house for 100BB or less on a single paired board like this, you will be completely fine. Just as you will also be completely fine, if you auto stack KK pre for 100BB. If he did if fact have for instance AJ, this runout is just a massive cooler, and its a mistake to not go broke.

However if you check-raise flop, then this is not even an issue. Because then he either fold, or he call, and then you bet turn and jam river. And get the bad news, but you also win the max, when he has for instance QT, AQ or AT and call you down.

 

[Jarud]

Preflop
Fine with just calling and taking a setmine out of position.

Flop
The SPR is around 10, and for that reason I prefer a check-raise rather than a donk bet. You want to try and get stacks inside here, and being in the SB is ideal for a check-raise, because everyone behind has a chance to fall in the trap.

Turn
As played nothing else to do here than bet for value again. Sizing looks fine. QT got there, so if he raise, you are probably only calling rather than stacking off, and hoping for the board to pair.

River
Board did pair but with an ace, which is not the absolute greatest thing, because now some better boats are possible. Still betting for value though, and I think, you have to call it off as well. Its important to remember, that you are not calling to win the pot. You are calling to win it often enough, which is somewhere between one out of four or five times.

And while I dont think, this is ever a bluff, there are some hands, he might be overplaying. The turned straight with QT. AQ or AT, which called on the flop with a gutshot and turned top pair. These hands are possible, and some of he boats like AA, KK, AK and even JJ would often have 3-bet pre.

Very few players just call a mini-raise with these hands to take a multiway flop. So realistically you lose to AJ (6), A7 (2) and maybe JJ (3), which is only 8-11 combos. Your hand is simply "to strong to fold". A live player might say something like "you probably have me beat, but I dont think, I can fold this hand - I call".

Just as a general rule if you never fold a full house for 100BB or less on a single paired board like this, you will be completely fine. Just as you will also be completely fine, if you auto stack KK pre for 100BB. If he did if fact have for instance AJ, this runout is just a massive cooler, and its a mistake to not go broke.

However if you check-raise flop, then this is not even an issue. Because then he either fold, or he call, and then you bet turn and jam river. And get the bad news, but you also win the max, when he has for instance QT, AQ or AT and call you down.

Thanks for taking the time to analyze this hand and give such a detailed response,

 

[pokeherface]

iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat
Astou18 (UTG): €1.15 (29 bb)
vanko1979 (MP): €0.93 (23 bb)
MARKOBII (CO): €4.48 (112 bb)
TheDreadLlama (BU): €16.62 (416 bb)
LOUBANEZ (SB): €8.00 (200 bb)
BETTOPADHER (BB): €4.55 (114 bb)

main villian playing 53/13/2 vpip/pfr/ag (68hands)
I took so long to decide what to do on the river the clock ran out. I think folding was correct (maybe) what do you guys think?
I decided to just call in the sb pre flop as I was getting a good price to hit my set with probably enough implied odds.
I lead the flop to try and get value from draws and kings, I didn't want the flop to check round for free and another card to peel off completing some draws.
not the best turn card but still ahead of villians range at this point I think?
Basically betting for value on this river, what does villians range look like at this point?
does a random Ace call my flop bet? (worth noting villains fold to flop Cbet is only 44)
does a random Ace Jam this river?
The only logical hands that I can think of are AJ and A7, unless this guy was slowplaying a hand like JJ.

pre flop is fine

flop I like how big the sizing is

turn I think you want to be betting bigger here you have a lot of hands that call you with an UTG open (KJo/s AKo/s KQs sticky 89s with and without Diamonds sometimes QQ and TT's )

river I think were not behind on his range but it does look very value heavy I know worst case scenario we have 17% thats all boats and QTs for the straight
if we even add in AQs/o in here which I think he will call flop with some of the time we have 38% which gives way enough equity to call if he calls with worst Ax like ATo/s were 50%
now if he's ever bluffing some of the hands we wanted to call on turn were way ahead I think a x/c can work just fine here too give him a chance to bluff some of his hands I mentioned on turn

I know why you did fold it and I would be wincing too because its almost never a bluff but its not time to be folding full houses when there's made straights on the board too

 

[ibetmyho]

It should 100% be a call on the river. AK and JJ will be raising pre flop, you block A7. So the most likely combo of full houses is AJ. Seeing how you bet on small on every street he could feasibly have Q10 and A10 and decide to shove river.

 

[Jarud]

This is probably one of the nitiest folds I've made although my win rate at nl4 has skyrocketed since I've started making these big folds. With all that said I might just be running good at the moment!

 

[fundiver199]

This is probably one of the nitiest folds I've made although my win rate at nl4 has skyrocketed since I've started making these big folds. With all that said I might just be running good at the moment!

Not paying off in spots, where people tend to rarely bluff, is certainly a way to get ahead in the micros. So your line of thought is correct. If for instance you had AQ, I would be completely fine with bet-folding the river.

The issue with this particular fold is, you might become the victim of an accidental value bluff. Fish are often bad at judging their relative hand strength, so some percentage of the time he will jam a straight or trips and think, its for value.

Just as a purely subjective judgement, I dont think, you are good here more than 50% of the time. But I do think, you are good more than those 20-25%, which is the break even point. So we are not happy, that he raised, but calling is the least bad option.

 

[Aballinamion]

iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat
Astou18 (UTG): €1.15 (29 bb)
vanko1979 (MP): €0.93 (23 bb)
MARKOBII (CO): €4.48 (112 bb)
TheDreadLlama (BU): €16.62 (416 bb)
LOUBANEZ (SB): €8.00 (200 bb)
BETTOPADHER (BB): €4.55 (114 bb)

main villian playing 53/13/2 vpip/pfr/ag (68hands)
I took so long to decide what to do on the river the clock ran out. I think folding was correct (maybe) what do you guys think?
I decided to just call in the sb pre flop as I was getting a good price to hit my set with probably enough implied odds.
I lead the flop to try and get value from draws and kings, I didn't want the flop to check round for free and another card to peel off completing some draws.
not the best turn card but still ahead of villians range at this point I think?
Basically betting for value on this river, what does villians range look like at this point?
does a random Ace call my flop bet? (worth noting villains fold to flop Cbet is only 44)
does a random Ace Jam this river?
The only logical hands that I can think of are AJ and A7, unless this guy was slowplaying a hand like JJ.

Given these facts "main villian playing 53/13/2 vpip/pfr/ag (68hands)", you should never be folding OTR, by any means! It is not very likely SB to present A7 because we are blocking and some of the stronger hands would not be flatting preflop oop versus many players, I mean, hands like AK, AJ, AA, KK and JJ would most likely be Squeezing preflop, so Villain will not have these hands. And if Villain has it, good for it because we are never folding a boat in situations like this at the micros, simply because Villain can have much more KJ that could be doing the same line and a naked Ax, because now it has a trips than the stronger hands, which we believe, they would be 3-betting preflop.
IMO, the fold OTR was a huge mistake and we should avoid it, also to avoid tilt.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa