33 in MP. where does the madness stop?!

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Villain is 51/1.

pokerstars 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Bet The Pot)

Preflop: Hero is MP with [3h], [3c].
UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) [2s], [Qd], [3s] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) [6d] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, UTG calls.

River: (16 BB) [Jc] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero...

Is there a cap to be made here? What kind of hand 3-bets this river? Do I have the best hand more than half the time?
 
DESSERTLADY

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FP,

I don't know if I am the one to answer this but I want to try to give it a shot.

With no preflop raise for pocket Qs or Js, I think UTG either has hit a set of 2s or paired his Q on the flop and then maybe hit 2 pair on the river with the J?
Edit: unless he's holding a 4 5 for a straight that he may have hit on the turn. My first choice before I reread the hand after I posted. I said cap it thinking you may have the best hand. But after rereading the hand again, you could save a few more bucks just calling with the straight potential out there.
 
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ChuckTs

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45s? that or 22 like Tina suggested...
Either that or he's really o.v.'ing AQ, or maybe he tried to limpraise with QQ and hit his set (though I can't see him trying to limpraise in 5-handed).

ps whats with the flop smooth-call? Multiway pot, there's more of a chance of a flush draw, no?
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Any reads on villain aside from the PT numbers?

If you're convinced he's capable of doing this with AQ (or even chip spewing with something like QsTs) or a random 2-pair, then there's value in capping as you're probably around 70:30 against his range. If you're unsure at all, there doesn't seem to be value in capping, just call and note that he overplays <insert hand> and move on. Because he's so loose/passive preflop he has a very wide possible range.

This hand actually absolutely stinks of an awfully played AA/KK to me though. Dunno why, it just does.
 
twizzybop

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I doubt you are against QQ's unless some donk loves to slow play the over pair then so be it.. definatly cap it cause some donk callled wit 2,5 and hit his straight.. not his fault the over pair of JJ's QQ's or AA's didn't pre flop bet with them.. most here I would be afraid of most is the straight.. other then that you are in the lead unless a donk is actually afraid to lose with QQ's... then note him down as such if he is.
 
Stick66

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Since the villian is 51/1, I'd put him on 2 pair like Q2, Q3, or maybe Q6. It just smells like a passive chaser who thinks he got lucky. I think even he would have raised pre-flop with the pocket pairs that made sets here.

The thread title kinda reminded me of the chick below (Susan Powter, who wrote the weight loss book "Stop The Insanity" years ago):
image629869x.jpg
 
F Paulsson

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ChuckTs said:
ps whats with the flop smooth-call? Multiway pot, there's more of a chance of a flush draw, no?
Yeah, flush draw is a distinct possibility, but the problem is that a flushdraw isn't folding this flop anyway no matter how much I raise, so I can't protect my hand. That said, it also seemed like a good idea to encourage "peelers" to tag along. With three people yet to act behind me, I figured I'd get more money in by simply calling. As it turns out, I may have been wrong about that, heh. Oh well.
 
ChuckTs

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Yeah, flush draw is a distinct possibility, but the problem is that a flushdraw isn't folding this flop anyway no matter how much I raise, so I can't protect my hand.

Not to argue with a limit aficionado :D, but doesn't that give you more reason to bet? That way you're sweetening the pot while you're well ahead. If people are going to call your bets anyway, then isn't that a good thing? Making them pay the maximum possible for their draws?
 
F Paulsson

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ChuckTs said:
Not to argue with a limit aficionado :D, but doesn't that give you more reason to bet? That way you're sweetening the pot while you're well ahead. If people are going to call your bets anyway, then isn't that a good thing? Making them pay the maximum possible for their draws?

If I knew they had flushdraws, I'd happily raise, sure. The problem is that if I raise here, only a flushdraw will call and random overcards will fold; I don't want that. I want the overcards to call too. It's a simple slowplay, is all; get some more money in the pot while I can.

I failed, of course. Only one of the three remaining players stuck around for the turn: a raise had likely been better.
 
Tammy

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Well, what could Villain hold that would beat you? QQ or JJ--highly unlikely since you could almost guarantee pre-flop raises with either of these hands. 4/5--possible, but why would anyone play this hand at all, let alone UTG? Sure, you can argue the suited connector theory, but 4/5 suited? Unless of course he's the type to play any two suited cards...

I'm thinking he's holding Qx of spades (perhaps [Qs][js]). He hits top pair and a flush draw on the flop, and bets out. No raises on the flop, so he's feeling pretty good about his hand.

The turn is non-threatening, in his eyes his hand is good (plus he still has outs for his flush, he's thinking) raise it up. River card (to him) only sweetens his hand if he is indeed holding [qs][js].

Given that the only hand you conceivably have to worry about is 4/5 to make the straight, and considering pot size ($42) in relation to what a capped bet would cost you ($4) you have to cap to get more money in the pot. Yes, I think you would win this more than 50% of the time (but don't ask me to work this out :p).
 
F Paulsson

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juiceeQ said:
Well, what could Villain hold that would beat you? QQ or JJ--highly unlikely since you could almost guarantee pre-flop raises with either of these hands.
He had only raised one single time in the 100 hands I had seen him play, though (which, I just checked, was with K9s - very weird), so I don't actually trust that his lack of preflop aggression is as significant as that.

What I'm trying to wrap my head around is what hand he'll 3-bet after I cap the turn. I mean, capping the turn is a HUGE show of strength. Is he really 3-betting this river with two pair, often enough for me to feel that capping is correct?

Then again, he could be drunk, of course. There's no accounting for that. :p

Thanks for the input.
 
ChuckTs

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So:

QQ possible considering he's 50/1. He 'never' raises PF anyway. JJ very unlikely - is he really going to 3-bet JJ on that flop and turn with you showing so much strength?

22 for a lower set - also possible, but he'd probably reraise the flop

Q-anything. Betting and raising QT or QK or something like it. Fairly possible, but his bets show too much strength for this to be really plausible.

Q2/Q3/Q6 for two pair. He'd likely reraise the flop with the first two, and having 50% VP$IP, I wouldn't be surprised if he limped utg with any of the three.

QJ for top pair and flush draw, then 2pair on the river. I think this is pretty likely.

45s - Likely aswell. You said that you don't see this guy limping UTG with it, Tammy, but you have to keep in mind that this guy is 50/1. He's pretty damn loose. His betting explains it perfectly IMO.

Complete bluff - I don't think we can apply the minimum of %10 bluff here that Harrington suggests. Sure maybe a busted flush draw, but in LHE, you really have little chance of bluffing a capper out of a pot, and I don't see it happening here.

I'm not going to do an EV thing on this, but I think they're all roughly equal in terms of probability that they're what OP is holding. With 4 possible situations that you can beat out of 6, I think this is a cap.
 
Tammy

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ChuckTs said:
45s - Likely aswell. You said that you don't see this guy limping UTG with it, Tammy, but you have to keep in mind that this guy is 50/1. He's pretty damn loose. His betting explains it perfectly IMO.
I completely forgot about the 50/1 part! :p So yes, this is completely likely. He looks like the type to limp in with any two cards hoping to hit on the flop. Soooo...if you take this info into consideration, and the fact that he rarely raises (with K/9 suited--so chances are, if he thinks that's worthy of a raise, he will definitely raise QQ/JJ), he really could be holding any two cards. I still think he's probably holding Qx of spades...
 
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