25NL; set gets c/r on scare card

GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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Villain has been pretty tight-aggressive, he is running 14/14/2.0 over 50 hands.


Stacks:
- Mike_Griffith with $9.75 - accno7 with $23.80 - rrrbi56 with $23.80 - ropa3370 with $31.40 - Patriots28a with $26.55 - GunslingerZZ with $32.40 - IM_ALL_IN_212 with $11.15 - noitall611 with $11.60 - Cerbo with $7.30

index.pl


index.pl

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
Site: full tilt poker
* - Dealt to GunslingerZZ:
9h.gif
9c.gif

Preflop:
**- 2 players fold.
* - rrrbi56 raises to $0.85
**- 2 players fold.
* - gunslingerzz calls [$0.85]
* - 3 players folded.
* - Total folds this street: 7
* - Potsize: $2.05
Flop:
7h.gif
9s.gif
3s.gif

* - rrrbi56 bets [$1.25]
**- 3 players fold.
* - gunslingerzz raises to $3.75
* - rrrbi56 calls [$2.50]
* - Potsize: $9.55
Turn:
8s.gif

* - rrrbi56 checks
* - gunslingerzz bets [$4.50]
* - rrrbi56 raises to $10

Hero ????

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Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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10 outs even IF you are behind. The odds are right. Just call though.
 
S

switch0723

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snapshove/fistpump

:D Summed up well there. You beat everything that would have raised pre flop except for a flush, if he has one thats just unlucky, hes just check raised a scare card probably because he missed it. I insta push
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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:D Summed up well there. You beat everything that would have raised pre flop except for a flush, if he has one thats just unlucky, hes just check raised a scare card probably because he missed it. I insta push
I wouldn't get too excited about this. You say "except for a flush" as if your living in a bubble and the flush is no more likely than any other random hand. The fact that he called, bet and raised certainly increases the likelyhood of a flush. In fact, this doesn't seem bluffy to me at all. If I were foced to bet on his most likely hand I'd have to say [As][7s]. But there's enough of a chance that he is bluffing, along with my FH or better outs that I call. I keep my fist under the table.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Doesn't seem bluffy to me either dogs. Not that this is always a flush, but imo he's either on an overpair here that either wasn't sure about what to do on the flop and has now decided to raise, or a big pair that 'trapped', or it's a flush. I think occasionally you'll see some other weird hands like 56 too.

Anyways, as played there's no way I can get away from this. I think it's an overpair/bluff/other weird hand enough of the time (and we'll fill up vs hands that beat us) to warrant a call.
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

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Call

Def call. Can't fold and no need to get carried away with a shove.
 
J

jeffred1111

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I really like a shove here since what are we folding to on the river ? A fourth spade ? Calling commits us and we want a hand like AsXx to pay for it's draw. This can also be a smaller set or an overpair.

Also, a villain that plays that tight and always raises when he enters doesn't have a lot of AXs other than AKS, AQs, AJs so it is more likely to be another hand of AsXx.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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I really like a shove here since what are we folding to on the river ? A fourth spade ? Calling commits us and we want a hand like AsXx to pay for it's draw.
This is what I was thinking, meaning, my decision should be push or fold. If I just call, the pot will be $29.55, and villain will have only $9.20 left in his stack. Which means if he pushes the river I'll be getting 4.2/1 at that point. Am I really going to fold there?

Obviously I'm calling the river if I fill up. Maybe I can get away from it if a fourth spade or straight card comes on the river. But if villain is drawing at that one-card flush or straight, don't I want the money in now? If a blank falls, am I losing value by checking behind the river if he checks?

With deeper stacks, this is an obvious call only and hope I fill up on the river. But as played, with these stack sizes, is my turn decision now a push or fold one (heavily leaning towards push)? Or is calling the best play?

I honestly don't know the answer.
 
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switch0723

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I wouldn't get too excited about this. You say "except for a flush" as if your living in a bubble and the flush is no more likely than any other random hand.

What i meant was that, you cant fear a flush evertime 3 of a suit arrive on the board otherwise you will be folding a lot. That is what i meant but i said it in a rubbish way
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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No prob Switch, I get your drift, and I agree. But I think you'll agree that there are indeed times when you should fear a flush, or a str8. So if not now, then when. This just seems to me to be one of those times. Maybe he's got a weaker set, maybe he's got an over pair or maybe he has the flush. If it's a bluff it's a foolish one as Gunslinger has shown strength all the way. IMO the CR stinks of a made flush, and the bet size is begging for a call. His only problem is that he doesn't realize how many outs he's up against. Still, it's a close call. Sure wish GS would finish the story for us.
 
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switch0723

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No prob Switch, I get your drift, and I agree. But I think you'll agree that there are indeed times when you should fear a flush, or a str8. So if not now, then when.

Well im going on the basis that villain is a decent player and therefore would not have called on flop without the right odds, But on the other hand he can call there without odds if he puts hero on a set knowing he will get paid if he hits. Too confused
 
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