[25NL] River; is he bluffing?

[F Paulsson]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Bet The Pot)

CO ($17.65)
Button ($28.30)
SB ($22.65)
BB ($7.30)
Hero ($28.15)
MP ($17.45)

Or rather, is he bluffing often enough?

I paused on this river for quite awhile.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [9s], [9c].
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) [Jc], [10c], [7d] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, CO calls $1.75.

Turn: ($5.85) [4h] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2, Hero calls $2.

River: ($9.85) [2d] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero folds.

I may have been overthinking this hand at the table, but I'll share that after I see some replies.

Edit: Note that he didn't go all-in on the river; he left $2.50 or so behind.

 

[NineLions]

No stats on villain?

Most likely holding; 10. Next most likely, weakish J.

Also possible, 88/66/55 or high cards, all of which we beat.


Presumably the bet size is based on the pot size rather than stacks. Without stats I guess that we're more often behind than ahead, imo.

Though if he's now convinced he's ahead then he should bet something we're more likely to call. But if we've called down then he thinks we have something and can get more value out of it.



Hmm, how's this; he thinks we have something that we are uncertain about since we've check/called the turn and checked the river. He bets pot to make the decision difficult for us. Does he actually have something? Stat-less, I'm still inclined to go with T or J.

 

[Effexor]

He may have been floating you with the thinking that you had some big ace and the flop bet was a cbet, and then when you checked the turn that may have reinforced his idea that the flop bet was just a cbet.

That said, without a good read I'm folding this to the river bet. In practice, I've found that it's the rare person at these levels that is willing to risk that much on a busted flush draw or bluff.

 

[icemonkey9]

Yeah I play at this level all the time. I think he definitely had you the whole way. I'm guessing a weak J or a strong T. The other possibility is that he strongly bet a busted draw at the river , which I see ALL the time. Why risk half a stack at that point. I thought your bet at the turn was a little low.

 

[Bentheman87]

No don't call this. He bet on the turn and when he could have checked, draws will mostly check here. And he bet pot on river, you're only getting 2:1 on your call. If he checked behind on the turn and then bet 1/2 or 2/3 pot on river I would call since it looks like a missed draw.

 

[Dr_Dick]

Villain bet $2 into a $5.85 pot on the turn after you checked and then he sees you call. Why does villain bet $2 (a weak bet less than 1/2 the pot) and then go $10 (over the pot) on the river?

I think villain made a mistake. When you checked he saw weakness and decided to take a stab at the pot even though he has basically nada, being on a draw. He screws up by making basically a blocking bet in reverse almost instead of betting to get you out. When you call, then check the river, he has no choice but to then get aggressive.

I would say 88 or missed flush draw...

 

[blankoblanco]

Most likely holding; 10. Next most likely, weakish J.

nope and nope. neither of these hands pots the river the way the hand played out. the hand-reading point, and a likely reason FP wants to call, is that this river bet size nearly always polarizes his range between bluffs (most likely missed draws), and two pair +. very read dependent but i definitely make hero calls here against certain players and am right a lot

 

[zachvac]

On a basic level this looks like a monster, whether it was a turned or rivered set/2-pair or he flopped it. But think about it from the POV of a flopped set. Auto-slowplay mode, calls the bet. Underbet the turn to build the pot, and then after you bet the flop and called the turn, he's hoping you have enough to call his overbet.

Now obviously the one thing that makes it look like this isn't what he has is that there are a ton of draws on that flop, and a set/2-pair would be extremely stupid to slowplay on this. But then again most 25nl players aren't that smart. Reads are big here though. If he's really aggressive and sees a lot of flops (ie more likely to have suited connectors) this could be a bluff on a missed draw.

But although there's a shot he's bluffing here, I still don't think we can call here. Too many hands that beat us and too big of a bet here. Of course this is also 6max, and I know very little about that, I do know there's more aggression so who knows this could be a profitable call.

 

[odinscott]

You cant really beat much that is out there with the 99. He even could have been bluffing and caught trip 2s or trip 4s. Plus the chance of two pair and on top of that even if he only had a measley 10 or J he has you beat. I dunno, 10 bucks wont break my BR but I am folding never the less. I like to go into the showdown feeling that I have it and I couldnt do it with this. I would be the one bluffing by calling.

 

[skoldpadda]

If he had a monster, I'd think he'd bet to protect on the flop or definitely by the turn (wtf with the $2 bet). Seems more likely to be a bluff. A lot of the time this will be a busted draw.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well although there are plenty of hands that beat us, barely any of them take this line. A ten or a jack just don't take this line very often. Our line looks like we have a busted draw ourselves, or something like 99 that really can't call that often, so why would he bet so much?

Granted, most 25nl players don't go into that much thought, but put simply, they see you look weak, so they'd bet smaller with a jack or ten. Maybe not at all with a ten.

Add in the fact that there are tons of busted draws out there, and I think this is a call if you've got any convincing stats on him. Not sure what to do readless, but there are tons of bluffing hands in his range.

 

[OzExorcist]

2:1 pot odds means... what, he's got to be bluffing one time in three for this to break even?

Agree that it's an odd bet for a jack / ten to make on the river. If that's a bet that polarises villain's range into either monsters or bluffs, yeah, I think this is probably a bluff often enough to make the call. Missed draws will make up a much bigger percentage of his range than monsters will.

 

[F Paulsson]

nope and nope. neither of these hands pots the river the way the hand played out. the hand-reading point, and a likely reason FP wants to call, is that this river bet size nearly always polarizes his range between bluffs (most likely missed draws), and two pair +. very read dependent but i definitely make hero calls here against certain players and am right a lot

That's indeed what I was getting at. It's a really weird betsize for the river. I mean, not everyone has betsizing down pat in their sleep, but generally speaking, people like to see a showdown with decent hands. They also hate making people fold when they have great hands.

So; his big bet on the river makes it one of three possibilities:

1. He's bluffing. Missed draw, whatever.
2. He's a very good player who bet with AJ and simply outlevelled me.
3. He has a monster and played very weirdly.

He needs to be the first only one time in three, yes.

It's the size that made me go "huh?" He didn't push all-in. He didn't bet small (I would've called a small bet, fwiw, just for the pot odds). He bet $10, which was almost his entire stack. It seemed to me he wants me to fold.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

This is pretty interesting, and combu has everything down really so I don't have a lot to add. AJ/AT and similar hands are generally not making that river bet.

It's definitely a weird betsize for the river, but it's even stranger considering the small turn bet. What could villain's motivation for underbetting the turn and then potting the river be? (that wasn't a rhetorical question, I'm interested in hearing ideas ^^)

Against an unknown I invariably toss this, but with reads, even something so utterly simple and seemingly trivial as "villain sizes his bets standardly", it could easily turn into a call, simply because the less sense something makes, the more likely it is to be a bluff.

Then you just cry when he turns up his horribly played QT or something.

 

[F Paulsson]

I had no written notes on him, and the only thing I now remember from his stats (I can't look it up because I'm at work) is that they were

a) from a small sample, and
b) not out of the ordinary.

So I assumed "typical $25NL player who's nitty preflop and sucks postflop."

 

[aliengenius]

Villain bet $2 into a $5.85 pot on the turn after you checked and then he sees you call. Why does villain bet $2 (a weak bet less than 1/2 the pot) and then go $10 (over the pot) on the river?

I think villain made a mistake. When you checked he saw weakness and decided to take a stab at the pot even though he has basically nada, being on a draw. He screws up by making basically a blocking bet in reverse almost instead of betting to get you out. When you call, then check the river, he has no choice but to then get aggressive.

I would say 88 or missed flush draw...

^^^this seems to exactly right to me, given this VVV read

I had no written notes on him, and the only thing I now remember from his stats (I can't look it up because I'm at work) is that they were

a) from a small sample, and
b) not out of the ordinary.

So I assumed "typical $25NL player who's nitty preflop and sucks postflop."

 

[F Paulsson]

Results:

I actually didn't fold; I called. I figured I'd get more interesting replies if I pretended that. Villain turned over AQo and my hand was good.

 

[feitr]

weak J/T would just take the free check on the river. So either you are looking a very weird played monster like 77, or complete air. He either wants you to think he is bluffing and pay him off v good, or the absolute last thing he wants to see is a showdown. Probably not a bad call to make odds wise, unless you have reads that tell you otherwise, because this would be such a strange way to play a set or even AJ (unless you have showed yourself willing to pay ppl off big). But vs an unknown i think i'd fold.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Results

well played sir, in more ways than one!

 

[feitr]

Oh didn't see the results. Yes very nice call. It is hands like this that the 2 seconds after you press "call" either make you feel like the greatest poker player alive or the worst...

 

[Dr_Dick]

Very nice...nice call. I never put him on AQo, but looking back at the hand I think the analysis was correct that he made a mistake betting a weak $2 into your check on the turn. He was on a draw of sorts, having two overs and the gut shot. He missed so he fires big.

 

[feitr]

yea i think he had the right idea. If he had bet $3.50 into the turn then fired 2/3 the pot on the river there are very people who could (or should) make either call with 99.

With 2 overs and a gutshot, raising the flop then firing a shot on the turn is a realistic option as well that should have won that pot without much contest.

However, since his line was very strange it was a nice call.

 

[F Paulsson]

well played sir, in more ways than one!

Thank you; I strive to please.