$25NL, KK in position

NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
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Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Villian had just sat down at the table.

Flop and turn bet sizes were on the small size, but something led me to be cautious.

Can we be the river for value? Or should we shut down in fear of what he's calling with, keeping the pot size under control?



Stacks:

* BB with $20.10
* UTG with $14.75
* MP1 with $22.00
* MP2 with $27.30
* CO with $13.20
* BTN with $29.85
* SB with $9.70

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to MP2:K♥ K♦
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero raises $0.75 to $1
* * 2 players fold.
* * SB calls [$0.90]
* * 1 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 5
* * Potsize: $2.25
Flop:
* * 4♣ 9♥ 9♠
* * SB: checks
* * Hero bets [$1.25]
* * 1 players fold.
* * SB calls [$1.25]
* * Potsize: $4.75
Turn:
* * Q♥
* * SB: checks
* * Hero bets [$2.25]
* * SB calls [$2.25]
* * Potsize: $9.25
River:
* * J♣
* * SB: checks
* * Hero ????

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum
 
Munchrs

Munchrs

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May 25, 2007
Total posts
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standard, Value bet this river. $4.50-$6.
 
B

Bentheman87

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Sep 6, 2007
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794
Definetly value bet, what are you afraid of here? A straight is not possible for him to have since he called on the flop and turn. And he probably would have bet trip nines on the turn or river.
 
S

switch0723

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Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
agreed, value bet against a small pair
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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13,642
bet bet bet!

Two pairs are counterfeited, and he'll let you know quick-fast if he's got you beat. I'm probably betting a little small here since he likely won't call with 8s and similar hands unless you give him a good price, but it's still a clear bet.

Not to mention you've underrepped your hand tremendously here on the flop and turn (bet like $1.75 and $4 respectively), so he could look you up pretty light here.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Jul 12, 2005
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12,422
Should villain be deeper, I'd pot the river - he's called down thus far on a drawless board so he likely has some sort of made hand that he likes and is unlikely to let go of (even accounting for our small flop/turn bets - while he may float the flop with nothing, he's invariably either going to donkbet, c/r or c/f to the turn bet, not c/c).

As it is, villain is short, and this is an easy shove. If he has a 9 or 44 or something then more power to him but you crush his range here and he's not folding a lot of hands.
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
K, thanks guys.

I did have a moment's hesitation on the river. Something made me pull back on the flop and turn bet sizes, and then I couldn't figure out what calls those bets ....



River:
J♣
SB: checks
Hero bets [$3]
SB raises $2.20 to $5.20 [ all-in ]
Hero calls [$2.20]
Results:
SB shows three of a kind, Nines:
8♣ 9♣
SB collected $18.70 from pot



I posted this hand 'cause I thought I had played it okay outside of the smallish bets, and was questioning afterwards whether or not I had overvalued the overpair.



Related question: if you had stats on someone, what stats would lead you to shut down at some point in this hand? Or, would you have called a shove say on the turn? Or is this a hand/board that you're paying someone off almost no matter what?
 
F

feitr

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Feb 8, 2008
Total posts
1,570
I was suprised that ppl advocated value betting this. Only a complete idiot is flat calling you to the river with 88 or something. There are, and never were any draws out there. So pocket 4s and a 9 is the only thing calling your value bet i think (and both are shoving).

Idk i just get very suspicious when somebody is only flat calling a bet with a flop like that. They aren't on a draw, and they can't have something like an underpair, because they would have to raise the flop or fold (unless they are a terrible calling station). It is a typical flop where somebody is likely to miss, but if they hit they hit big.

I realise this seems a little stupid after you posted the results, but i really was thinking this is an automatic check as i was reading through the posts.

You are either putting him on a 4 or 7s/8s or Qx etc, and he would only flat call any of those to the river if he is a terrible player.

Related question: if you had stats on someone, what stats would lead you to shut down at some point in this hand? Or, would you have called a shove say on the turn? Or is this a hand/board that you're paying someone off almost no matter what?

I'd value bet vs a calling station type player, i would check the river vs anybody else.

I just can't see what hands you could put the villain on that we can beat. Nothing with a Q or J makes sense to stick around with (maybe AQ), only a terrible player is flat calling with a small pp (raise or fold on flop...you don't have any other options), and there are no draws out there.

I'm always fairly wary of players slow playing on paired flops if somebody calls my c bet. Value betting the river just seems like such a -EV play here unless you know he will call with total garbage.
 
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