25nl J6s flopped flush; river action?

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
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Total posts
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Villain is ~30/0/1.3 through a few dozen hands but I don't have any strong reads on him. Hero is ~15/10/5.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($22.35)
UTG+1 ($12.30)
MP1 ($43.60)
MP2 ($14.65)
MP3 ($4.65)
CO ($25)
Button ($24.25)
SB ($12.20)
Hero ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6
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, J
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.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Button calls $0.25, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 9
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, 7
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, 2
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(5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, Button calls $1, SB folds.

Turn: ($3.25) 3
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2.8, Button calls $2.80.

River: ($8.85) 6
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(2 players)
Hero ...
 
P

phatjose

Rock Star
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Oct 2, 2007
Total posts
222
I think we have to assume that the villain also has a flush, or at the very least 2 pair. For him to just flat call both the flop and turn indicates he has made a strong hand. A set seems unlikely, because I don't think he limps into the hand from the button with a PP. For the same reason, I don't think he has the nut flush either. AXs could very easily raise here from the button considering everyone else just limped. Although his aggression (or lack thereof if I'm reading his numbers right) points to a possible AXs limp. Granted it's only through a small sample size, but his numbers seem to indicate we might also see something like AdXx here, and he's been on a draw the entire time. We have the 4th nuts atm, not great, but I think it might warrant a value bet.

I'd probably go with like $3-4 or so. If we check and he bets, we still don't know where we are. If he raises, we are most likely dead in the water. If he calls, and we end up losing (a strong possibility), I think it's still worth it in the long run for the information, as we can more easily define what type of player he is now.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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$6-$8. he might have the lone Ad but even if he does i wouldn't expect a 30/0 type player to bluff that if you check to him anyway. plus he may feel the A high has some showdown value if you were bluffing. preflop doesn't always correlate with postflop play, but in general, loose-passive pre = loose-passive post. and nobody ever believes you flopped the flush, especially when you triple barrel it

if he folds, he was rarely gonna bet if you checked
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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I think we have to assume that the villain also has a flush, or at the very least 2 pair. For him to just flat call both the flop and turn indicates he has made a strong hand.

MUBS (monsters under bed syndrome), as chuck might say. what do you think he's doing with a lone 9 here, which is several times more likely. same thing

A set seems unlikely, because I don't think he limps into the hand from the button with a PP.

of course he does. a) it's usually correct unless it's the 99 and b) he's 30/0

We have the 4th nuts atm, not great, but I think it might warrant a value bet.

it's pretty great. and hell yes it warrants a value bet

I'd probably go with like $3-4 or so.

bet more. you're block betting because you're scared of a better flush? seriously MUBS
 
P

phatjose

Rock Star
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222
I wasn't taking his numbers into full account when thinking about what kind of hands he has (I don't have poker tracker so the numbers sometimes throw me off a bit). So yeah, bump it up to like $6-7 and get more value out of him. I so rarely run into a true loose-passive player in a live game, I sometimes forget just how wide their ranges can be (I think I've also been playing a bit too much omaha lately where the 4th nuts is nothing but trouble).
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I agree that this calls for a bigger value bet. I bet $4 without too much thought (8-tabling will do that to you), basically trying to squeeze some more out of Adx type hands.

Betting closer to a PSB will do a few better things for us. For one we get more value from worse hands that call. Another thing is that it probably makes folding to a river raise a lot easier for the times when we're behind. A loose passive player like this will rarely if ever bluff raise that river, especially for a big PSB.

River: ($8.85) 6
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(2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button raises to $12, Hero ...
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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I would value-bet about half the pot to make it easier for villain to call us.

Checking to induce a bluff can also be a good play IF we know villain's game well and we know he is likely to bluff with a busted draw.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Checking to induce a bluff can also be a good play IF we know villain's game well and we know he is likely to bluff with a busted draw.

True, but I agree with combu in that we're not going to see very many river bluffs from a 30/0/1.3. vs a laggier opponent it would actually be quite a nice play - we get value from the busted draws and one pair/two pair/set hands, plus we save money vs the bigger flushes.
 
J

jeffred1111

Visionary
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Apr 16, 2007
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792
Also, please to be calling the raise since this can be a lot of wrose hands (straight, turned set, two pairs, etc.). Your hand is underepped and looks like a bluff. I might even shove if I'm feeling frisky.
 
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