25NL AA OoP turn decision

[bw07507]

bodog History for Hand #717766070
Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007-05-17 18:42:35
Table 'Quakers' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: bw07507 ($17.15)
Seat 2: blatt11 ($69.75)
Seat 3: SmoothLee ($57.37) VPIP=47.62/PFR=0/AF=.38
Seat 4: The APC ($23.89)
Seat 5: tablethumper ($26.75) VPIP=52.17/PFR=17.39/AF=2.71
Seat 6: D_Squared ($24.40)
Seat 7: LittleBob22 ($29.90)
Seat 8: Eubergine ($26.45)
Seat 9: BC1800a ($23.80)
------------------------------
NEW HAND
LittleBob22: posts the small blind $0.10
Eubergine: posts the big blind $0.25
--- DEALING POCKETS
bw07507 is dealt [Ah,Ac]
BC1800a: folds
bw07507: raises $1.25 to $1.50
blatt11: folds
SmoothLee: calls $1.50
The APC: folds
tablethumper: calls $1.50
D_Squared: folds
LittleBob22: folds
Eubergine: folds
--- DEALING FLOP [Kh,8s,2d]
bw07507: bets $2.50
SmoothLee: calls $2.50
tablethumper: calls $2.50
--- DEALING TURN [4h]
bw07507:?

Heres another one of those big hands that I have trouble with. Im never sure what to do in situation like these. There are no draws out there so im not sure what they could be calling with.

 

[skoldpadda]

Bet the pot. You're getting called by AK and KQ.

 

[ChuckTs]

With their stats, they could have anything from 33 to a set to ace-high.

I lead the turn again, prob ~2/3 to 3/4 the pot, then reevaluate based on their actions.

 

[dj11]

Yeah, what either of them said....

 

[t1riel]

A pot bet or less they would call with a flush draw. This may sound a bit aggressive but I would push here.

 

[joeeagles]

A pot bet or less they would call with a flush draw

So what? If they call a flush draw with a pot bet then definitely DON'T push, make the pot bet. Making them call with the wrong odds is +EV for you, so let them do it.

The question here is knowing if you're ahead or not, and I'm afraid you have no way of finding this out.

I lead the turn again, prob ~2/3 to 3/4 the pot, then reevaluate based on their actions.

While this is sound advice, I'm afraid it's no longer possible here because pot is $12.75 and we have $13 left. A 2/3 pot bet is $8, a 3/4 pot bet is $9, so either way we become pot committed and can't fold this anymore no matter what evaluation we come up with against these 2 villains. This is why playing with a shortstack isn't good (or maybe it is in this case?).

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I just shove here. Given the players stats they're calling with AK/KQ/flush draw/maybe even some other random hands we beat whatever we bet and I don't think a 2/3 pot - pot bet does a lot other than commit you to the pot. If you bet 2/3 pot - pot you're still never folding the river anyway, right?

I lead the turn again, prob ~2/3 to 3/4 the pot, then reevaluate based on their actions.

As above, if you make a 3/4 pot bet are you really going to subsequently fold against these players (given the effective stack size), whatever happens?

A pot bet or less they would call with a flush draw.

Why is this a bad thing?

 

[joosebuck]

shove, you wont get away from any river after getting anywhere near a pot bet called.

 

[tenbob]

Check raise tablethumper. The players AF seems to suggest that if you check, Smoothlee will check and tablethumper will bet. You should be able to take it HU on the river. IF the players check behind you, I make a smallish block bet on the river, its likely that if your ahead that your opponents are drawing to very few outs anyway.

YOUR NOT THAT SHORTSTACKED. The way youve played this hand has made it correct for all pairs to call. Bet more on the flop ~€4/5 and attempt to call down light up if called.

I dont like this hand, Ill put a little more thought into it and post some more later on.

Shoving the turn is s

 

[Stefanicov]

i shove and hope for donk calls u might be behind but not likely

 

[bill118911]

id say bet the pot if they call that go all in on the river if it is another junk card chances are they either got a pocket pair or 2 high cards if they didnt re raise u at all then chances are they dont have trips

 

[joeeagles]

YOUR NOT THAT SHORTSTACKED

Granted, he's not terribly shortstacked, but he is about 32% short of a full buy-in, and since he raised PF and the pot went 3 way and remained so after his flop bet, the situation is now kind of sticky for him with a pot that is just about equal to his remaining stack.

Perhaps, if one were thinking ahead, a different approach could have been a check/raise the flop, but I don't like that because there is the risk to give both yo-yo's a free card. At this point I don't see a way out of this w/o shoving. You could try a check here, but what is your answer if someone bets? A check/raise will pot commit you, so no point in that. If they don't bet its a free river and that's not good either. This hand clearly went downtown but there isn't much to do about it anymore. You have to lead out, there is no other way. The only thing debatable is how much to lead with or just shove and cross your fingers.

 

[bw07507]

well i shoved and got a caller heres how it turned out. I had just lost about 7 dollars on the last hand, so thats why I was shortstacked, didnt have a chance to reload.

bw07507: goes all in $13.15
SmoothLee: calls $13.15
A New One-On-One $2.00/$4.00 Texas Hold'em table Ducks has started.
tablethumper: folds
SmoothLee: shows [Kd,Qd], a Pair, Kings
--- DEALING RIVER [5h]
bw07507: shows [Ah,Ac], a Pair, Aces
SmoothLee: shows [Kd,Qd], a Pair, Kings
Hand 717766070:
bw07507: wins main pot($37.15)
with a Pair, Aces

thx for the info guys, i could have bet more on the flop, but I want lower pairs calling dont I?

 

[jhnnyfckfce]

At this point I don't see a way out of this w/o shoving.

Totally agree. His stack is so close to the pot that pot sized bet = shove anyway.

 

[ChuckTs]

I just shove here. Given the players stats they're calling with AK/KQ/flush draw/maybe even some other random hands we beat whatever we bet and I don't think a 2/3 pot - pot bet does a lot other than commit you to the pot. If you bet 2/3 pot - pot you're still never folding the river anyway, right?



As above, if you make a 3/4 pot bet are you really going to subsequently fold against these players (given the effective stack size), whatever happens?

Yeah, sorry. Didn't pay attention to hero's stack. Easy shove.