25nl 88 for bottom set vs push

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Pusher is a 77/0/.5 fish who plays a very straight forward fishy game.

The initial raiser is a big lagfish who I don't need to elaborate too much on here. He's most probably going to fold this regardless if I call, and I don't really pin him on much here.

I'm my usual 15/10/5 self, but recently played a big pot with the lagfish. I raised from EP/MP with AJo, villain 3-bet, 77/0/.5 fish cold called and I tagged along. We both ended up check-calling him to the river on an ace-high board, and I made the lone tough call on the river for a ~PSB with top pair vs his 66 :)eek:).

Anyways, what types of hands are we seeing here and what's our action? Do you maybe play the flop a little different?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

MP1 ($28.30)
MP2 ($27.95)
MP3 ($27.15)
CO ($25.65)
Hero ($28.40)
SB ($35.10)
BB ($3.60)
UTG ($32.05)
UTG+1 ($14.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8
diamond.gif
, 8
club.gif
.
UTG raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50.

Flop: ($4.60) T
club.gif
, 8
spade.gif
, K
spade.gif
(6 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $1, MP1 calls $1, MP3 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5.5, BB folds, UTG calls $4.50, MP1 calls $4.50, CO calls $4.50.

Turn: ($26.60) 9
heart.gif
(4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets $22.05 (All-In), CO folds, Hero ...
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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If he's seeing that many flops he could have anything. 2 pair, flush draw, made straight, flush and straight draw. His range is almost anything although since his aggression is so low I'd expect him to have a strong draw at least. With the pot that was built on the flop I'd say your committed and calling here is definitely +EV.
 
P

phatjose

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We're scared of what? JQ and 67 in this situation? Do we actually put him on either of those hands considering what it looks like his range is? This could just as easily be a full bluff because he's steaming from before, and thinking he can get you off the hand. I don't see how we can lay this down. Even if he does have his straight, we still have 10 outs to steal the pot back.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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fwiw he instashoved here. I'll get back to this one tomorrow.
 
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phatjose

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fwiw he instashoved here. I'll get back to this one tomorrow.

I don't suppose this guy has a timing tell with his betting does he? As in, he bets his strong hands very fast and if he bluffs he normally takes awhile before betting?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Well I don't know him very well, so I couldn't tell you. What I do know though is that his bet is showing great strength and he obviously didn't have to think of his decision very long if he instashoved. I'm not sure he does this with two pair. He most probably doesn't do it with a combo draw - he's more the type to check-call.

Anyways, we're not getting odds vs JQ here and my question was pretty much whether or not there are other hands in his range that could curb a fold to a call here. I'm not sure I see very many though...
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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I think you should raise it more on the flop, especially in a 6-way pot on a board as drawey as this... with $8.60 in the pot, you raise just $4.50?? With as many players as this in, you want to raise at least pot-size ($9.60 to go), and an overbet would not be out of order.

Anyway, you can make a fairly safe laydown here I think, given the action and his stats. (Although sometimes you see this type of player shoving to "protect" his AA after a brilliant "slowplay" on the flop... just depends how fishy he is I suppose.)
 
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NineLions

NineLions

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You know everyone knows that you're loose when your UTG raise gets 5 callers ....

For someone 77/0/.5, JQ/67 is definitely in the range, for that matter even J7s. But for someone with 0.5 aggression I don't see anything else that he shoves here? Maybe 99 as well but we're behind that with even less outs.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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i only read OP but snapcall and puke when he shows QJ (fwiw T9 and other 2prs do this here imo)
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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well I tanked and saw my hand get timed out before I could decide whether or not to call :(

I'm still not sure about this one. I was almost %100 sure at the time that he had QJ, but I think he probably does this with some 2 pairs...
 
Tygran

Tygran

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I think I have to reluctantly call this, and as van said puke if he shows JQ. Even if he has the made straight we have 10 outs to pair the board (not counting on it but could happen) and combining that with the fact that practically anything is in his range... I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 2 pair, a pair/draw combination or even just a straight up draw (something like AJ, AQ, any 7, etc...).

Even factoring in a higher set (this would be bad) I'd say we are better than 50% to win here which means we have odds. I'd need a good read to fold, maybe you have one.. If his bet timing pattern is off significantly and is giving you a read of a made straight then I'd muck but without such a read I gotta call this I think.



...of course you could take the conservative approach and just wait on a bit better spot to bust the guy. sounds like he'll be giving you some more opportunities real soon.
 
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WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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If he has 2 pair and wants to price out the draws (if that's possible with this group) he's only choice is to go all in. His all in is less than a pot sized bet, so no one is folding to anything less.

You're getting better than 3:1 to call here and you are going to win more often than that. Even if he has the made straight you still win more than 20% of the time. Add in the times he shows 2 pair, a draw, or worse and I think this is a call every time.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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We're actually getting 2.2:1 here; 3.6:1 to fill up by the river.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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We're actually getting 2.2:1 here; 3.6:1 to fill up by the river.

Your right, of course. I don't know if I typed 3 and meant to type 3 or just screwed up. If you know he has a straight, it's a bad call, but he'll not have it often enough to make the call worthwhile.
 
J

jeffred1111

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It's close, with 2.2 on your money and 3.6 to fill up I'd say I fold since we have to include a lot of crap in his range for us to be good enough of the time. I raise a lot more on the flop, enough to "commit" me on the turn since I'll get a good price to boat if the crap card hits (spades or 9).

The limit player in me wants to call this: WE HAVE OUTS !
 
Bombjack

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What 2 pair hand are you guys putting him on that calls the flop and might push the turn? K9 is the only possibility as far as I can see. On the other hand I don't think he plays a set like this either, which means a straight is a very large part of his range. 6-way, it's actually pretty likely someone will have a straight on this board... Good fold Chuck imo, even if it was by accident!
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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With those stats on villain I think this was a good fold. I play 25NL, and I almost never see guys that passive push that much of a buy-in all-in on a draw, especially on the turn, especially against 3 opponents! Also, I agree with the earlier poster who said you probably should raise more on the flop.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Thanks for the responses guys :)

Also, I agree with the earlier poster who said you probably should raise more on the flop.

I never replied to bombjack's comment on that and I completely agree that I should pop it up more. I made a bad calculation on that flop and shoulda put in a few more bucks there - maybe I didn't care as much about the amount because I was expecting a 3-bet with AK/AA etc.
 
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