25NL 6max, flush vs. aggressor

[blankoblanco]

no, i'm not busto, just bored and not in the mood to stress over bigger stakes =P

i've been TAG. villain is 26/6/0.8. on the turn he took a whiile to act

full tilt poker Game #4104008713: Table Hickam (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:20:00 ET - 2007/11/07
Seat 1: SK Viking ($27.25)
Seat 3: libbeynation ($28.55)
Seat 4: campster123 ($24.55)
Seat 5: XTC Riders ($24.75)
Seat 6: combuboom ($36.15)
XTC Riders posts the small blind of $0.10
combuboom has 5 seconds left to act
combuboom posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [6h Jh]
SK Viking calls $0.25
libbeynation has 15 seconds left to act
libbeynation calls $0.25
campster123 folds
XTC Riders folds
combuboom checks
*** FLOP *** [8h Kh 2s]
sfxman sits down
sfxman adds $25
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom bets $0.60
SK Viking calls $0.60
libbeynation calls $0.60
*** TURN *** [8h Kh 2s] [5h]
combuboom bets $1.50
SK Viking folds
libbeynation has 15 seconds left to act
libbeynation raises to $4
combuboom calls $2.50
*** RIVER *** [8h Kh 2s 5h] [5s]
combuboom checks
libbeynation bets $8
combuboom folds

 

[SeanyJ]

It looks like he was slow playing a set on the flop and just hit his full house so I'd say that's a pretty good fold.

 

[tosborn]

Tough spot. This is a strange line for villain to take. I think you are ahead enough of the time to make this call.

His line could be:

Busted 1 card flush (Ah)
trip 5's
Flush (I don't think all of the flushes in his range beat us. But obviously some do)
Full House (most sets will reraise the flop, this seems like an unlikely holding to me unless villain has specifically K5)
Quad 5's (If he does I'm paying him off)

 

[viking999]

His line could be:

Busted 1 card flush (Ah)
trip 5's
Flush (I don't think all of the flushes in his range beat us. But obviously some do)
Full House (most sets will reraise the flop, this seems like an unlikely holding to me unless villain has specifically K5)
Quad 5's (If he does I'm paying him off)

I agree with the first one, Ah8 being the likely culprit. I don't see any trip fives that he's calling the flop with, though. Flush is possible. Some we beat, some we don't. I'm not inclined to put him on the nut flush because he didn't slowplay the turn. 88, 22, K5, and 55 are all pretty reasonable.

I'm generally inclined to fold this, but if he's very aggressive I might call. The pot odds aren't great. The problem is there's not a whole lot he could have missed with, and therefore be ripping with a bluff. I don't see him playing a bare king like this, because he is only getting called by a better hand. I wouldn't put him on an eight unless he changed his mind halfway through and decided he had to bluff. Ah8 is really the only likely bluff. So for the most part it's just hoping he has a lower flush.

 

[blankoblanco]

just for clarification purposes, villain is 26/6/0.8, which means he's somewhere between tight and loose, and he's very passive (0.8 is the aggression factor, which is very low).

viking covered what my argument would be against trip 5s.. there's no hand he's calling the flop with that makes trip 5s on the river. however i don't think Ah8 is too likely, even if he was aggressive (but i'd almost rule it out given his passivity). his hand does have some showdown value in case i have a weaker 8, so i don't know how often he'd turn it into a bluff. i maintain that players rarely rarely turn 2nd pair into a bluff at these stakes, even in the cases where proper handreading may deem it reasonable (a lot of them can't handread at all anyway). he'd have to get me to fold at least top pair for it to be good, which in this spot actually looks reasonable, but at 25NL i think you get called by top pair with some frequency because players don't know how to fold

i don't think there's many weaker flushes in his range. he played the hand from UTG+1 and his VP$IP is 26%, which is actually not very loose at all for 6max (mine is about 24-25%). he's not playing all sorts of junk hands. i figured he could have T9h and not much else that i beat

 

[Bombjack]

I think if you're not sticking it in on the turn, you should normally call a river bet whatever comes, although versus someone with such a low aggression factor I suppose the fold is OK here. Did you ask him what he had?

 

[vanquish]

wp sir