ALL IN CLUBS
Legend
Silver Level
mrmonkey
Visionary
Silver Level
I agree with Deco here, I think this is a fold. The main reason is due to the nut flush combos he could have (AcTc+) and bigger sets that have us crushed. The only other things I see villain playing this way on turn are TP+FD, and that's only if he's aggro and thinks he has FE (which in this case I think he does). But even if we include TP+FD in his range I think we're still crushed.
Hand 0: 25.668% { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 74.332% { QQ, 99, 55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, AcQd, AcQh, KcQd, KcQh }
I don't think any two pair combos are in villains pf calling range, and suited connectors that hit the flop flush are probably raising the flop.
I think the real question here is whether villain really plays QQ, 99, & 55 without raising pf (QQ) or on the flop with any of them. If we don't include bigger sets, it changes things drastically:
Hand 0: 51.989% { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 48.011% { AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, AcQd, AcQh, KcQd, KcQh }
Hand 0: 25.668% { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 74.332% { QQ, 99, 55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, AcQd, AcQh, KcQd, KcQh }
I don't think any two pair combos are in villains pf calling range, and suited connectors that hit the flop flush are probably raising the flop.
I think the real question here is whether villain really plays QQ, 99, & 55 without raising pf (QQ) or on the flop with any of them. If we don't include bigger sets, it changes things drastically:
Hand 0: 51.989% { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 48.011% { AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, AcQd, AcQh, KcQd, KcQh }
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
I think we are beyond almost all the time here and it sucks to have to pay off nits with retarded ranges but we have odds to call it off because his range is going to be mostly flushes and rarely sets other than QcQx. I mean, it looks SO much like QcQx I can understand wanting to fold but at least you get to laugh at how retarded his range is.
ALL IN CLUBS
Legend
Silver Level
If he had QQ wouldn't he reraise Pre??
Deco
Legend
Silver Level
Why on earth would TP+FD raise here?
Firstly I'd expect a raise from the flush draw on the flop. But say villain is a little on the passive side and opts to flat why would he raise now he holds the the same draw but now with good showdown value. He would fold out all hands he beats.
I also think the sets are far more numerous than the flush draws. Nits are not going to be flatting Axs or SCs preflop here.
Firstly I'd expect a raise from the flush draw on the flop. But say villain is a little on the passive side and opts to flat why would he raise now he holds the the same draw but now with good showdown value. He would fold out all hands he beats.
I also think the sets are far more numerous than the flush draws. Nits are not going to be flatting Axs or SCs preflop here.
Deco
Legend
Silver Level
There's someone yet to act behind on the flop + villain is a nit. (they've a tendency to slowplay more and are not as astute as a good regs)
Under normal circumstances I'd negate sets very heavily. Here I think a 50% negation, the call is even more likely if MP is a fish.
acky100
Legend
Silver Level
Meh, this hand sucks.
villain isn't a nit, he's a 14/10 reg, but i really cant see him making moves here without the best hand.
Ive looked through my database to try and see what kind of hands he's cold calling etc but all i could really see is that one time when a reg isolated a fish he cold called AKs in position.
Think its time to just give up on this one, i cant figure out what is best, if it happens again with him i will probably just call to see! We've only played 300 hands together so i dont actually know how he plays certain spots.
villain isn't a nit, he's a 14/10 reg, but i really cant see him making moves here without the best hand.
Ive looked through my database to try and see what kind of hands he's cold calling etc but all i could really see is that one time when a reg isolated a fish he cold called AKs in position.
Think its time to just give up on this one, i cant figure out what is best, if it happens again with him i will probably just call to see! We've only played 300 hands together so i dont actually know how he plays certain spots.