This is a discussion on $25 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK against tight regular within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players
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UTG: $30.73 (123 bb)
UTG+1: $9.53 (38 bb)
MP: $40.09 (160 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): $33.95
$200 NLHE Full Ring: 99 UTG on 666 board vs tight aggressive BB
January 10th, 2021 6:16 PM
Cash Game Hand Analysis
Join Date: May 2019
Clear fold. This villain has conditions that make us strongly think that RV: TT; KK; AA; QQ; QT. This is an easier decision because although the hand sample is small, we know that it has a fairly conservative tendency and risks little or nothing in its game. Quite practical to read it from any HUD and especially for this type of case.
fundiver199, LevySystem, c0rnBr34d, Aballinamion liked this post
MP stats: VPIP 67 / PFR 25 over 33 hands
SB stats: VPIP 12 / PFR 10 / 3-bet 5 / AF 2 over 387 hands
Ok so lets make it 3 Hold`em or Fold`em spots in a row. This time however the opponent is a tight regular.
Hello fundiver199, thank you very much for sharing your hand with us, lemme try to help you.
Standard. What we must consider here is that SB, being a Tight Passive, for a volume of 387 hands, is not calling from the SB with the best hands (it does 3-bet 5%), but it is not calling with non-sense hands as well, because there is MP yet to talk.
So, SB will always have a capped range here, calling with 22-99, 22-88, 22-TT, 22-JJ, you name it, it will depend how often SB calls vs Hero MP raise vs limper.
A Tight Passive is more likely to know that you are a regular and it is not raising limpers, or raising first with anything that is not a strong, playable range.
Other hands SB could be calling here are some strong suited connectors.
Hero goes for 1/2 pot here with QT, AQ, maybe KQ, maybe QQ and TT, 66 Hero doesn't have a lot. For bluff Hero is going for 1/2 pot with with AK, AJ, KJ, etc.
SB raises more than the size of the pot, and we ask for SB's bluffs when we are blocking a couple of them such as AK: would a Tight Passive call from the SB x MP with AK? I don't know.
What I know that is most of situations like this SB hasn't many combos of QT, because you are blocking, SB hasn't QQ, because we also believe a Tight Passive would be 3-betting out of position, unless this is a out of the way passive player.
Curious, is that we are kindda even when it comes to sets here: Hero can have more QQ and TT, and SB can have QQ, TT and 66. Hero can have 66 too but less combos.
Although hero has range advantage here most of times, SB's check-raise is representing TT and 66, which we don't block and bluffs not a lot of them, specially from the SB callling preflop oop.
I don't know if in the long run this call is profitable, since this passive tight will show more often values than bluffs. And what is our plan here? Call flop to do what on the turn? IF SB goes all-in are we in with all of our range here? AK, AQ, QT, KJ, etc versus a guy that most likely has much more value hands on its range than bluffs? By calling Turn aren't we leveling ourselves and entering into a turn where either if comes another Ax or Qx, we don't know if we are happy and many times we are going to call, knowing for sure that we are losing because we want 'to level' to show a weak passive that it is not easy to bluff us out of pot.
Turn is a total brick for both ranges and SB ships all-in. Unless you believe a tight passive would be x/r OTF and jamming turn with KQ, AT, or random non-sense bluff as the other hand you posted where Villain had nothing. If you believe that snap-call, trust more you were on the table so your instincts are better than us here analysing cold data.
I don't see many hands here that we are good to make this call profitable in the long run. Versus a Tight Aggressive we should be going, versus an Aggro Donkey, some types of LAGs if they exist at these limits, but tight passive doesn't really know how to bluff out of position.
Summarizing, we are going versus players that can have bluffs on its range in situations like this and according to Villain stats, it doesn't has.
SB stats: VPIP 12 / PFR 10 / 3-bet 5 / AF 2 over 387 hands
I think considering the stats we have to fold. 400 hands is not a bad sample for preflopstats and his flatting range seems pretty capped especially from the smallblind. Therefore I would discount the normal bluffs I would assign villain like SC playing aggressively with a straightdraw +BDFD. I would even go with discounting his 2 pair for the Same reason, he doesn't seem to flat a lot.
I'm pretty sure you are looking into a set here very often.
__________________ Poker is a game of skill against your opponents luck
re: Poker & $25 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK against tight regular
Originally Posted by Alucard
I agree with this.
A well sized x/r on this flop into a 3 way field where the PFR has bet screams value. It IS a draw heavy board but as mentioned earlier his flatting range is really capped and I don't expect to see J9s or KJo. The only thing I think we can hope for here is that he is playing his KJs like this. I think we can fold flop here and definitely fold turn. If he had the draw I think we got lucky whether it hit or missed and caught one of the 2 combos of KJs that flopped a flush draw or backdoor to go with the straight draw. Otherwise we are chopping at best a good portion of the time. I don't really expect to chop much though since he has a 5% 3b and we opened from MP. I'd expect him to 3 bet AJs and AQ. TT and 66 seem most likely here. More combos of that than KJs that want to x/r flop and jam turn.
Thanks for the input. I folded and I pretty much agree with everything, that has been said. With just a 2% gap between VPIP and PFR a cold calling range will usually be very dominated by setmines, and even more so when he called from SB. On the flop I guess, it just felt to weak-tight to fold TPTK. But I agree, that against a nit like this, it would be the best play. Just never show or tell your cards, because then you will become a target for the whole table