This is a discussion on $25 NLHE Full Ring: Thoughts on this play? Much appreciated. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
MP ($30.36) [VPIP: 19% | PFR: 7.6% | AGG: 14.8% | Flop Agg: 17.6% | Turn Agg: 16.7% | River Agg: 0%
River ($18.64): Ac 9c 3s 2s 3d
HJ Bets $16.79 (allin), HERO Calls $16.79 (Rem. Stack: $30.56)
HJ shows: 4c 3c, HJ wins: $49.61
The Allin call was 80%+EV against a 30% range even though maybe I should have figured that I was beat. Afterall why would a tight covered player go all on the river vs probable Aces unless a bluff was the only way he could win after his flush draw missed OR he hit simething? But what could he beat me with? AK? 99? 33? Never imagined he’d be in with x3s.
Maybe I should have squeezed him preflop or raised on the flop but my objective always in a situation like this is to stack’em and that’s what I got. After all, I was OTB with a very good hand vs a min raise/call. However, if he didn’t fold to the raise, the end result would’ve been the same anyway.
Tough one since the stats dont back up what the villain is doing here. If these stats were available to me in game as they were to you I would see that I am going against two tight players with the raise and call in front but I still like 3 betting pre for a few reasons. One is it should get the blinds out of the way. We have a hand that plays postflop but I dont want it to be a party pot where there is 5 people seeing a flop. I would rather get it down to one opponent. Secondly is even though both villains havent 4 bet much or at all in the past I still think they 4 bet with their top here. If I am going against QQ+ here the sooner I find it out the more money I save. 3 betting here should narrow the ranges of opponents and control the amount of villains we have to play against.
On the flop the HJ does bet into a lot of people here so I would put them on something good (never would have put them on what they have based on stats and number of people they are betting into). I would want to keep their worse Axs in so I dont think I would raise here plus we have so many still to act behind us so I would be just calling here.
On the turn we pick up a flush draw but face another big bet. I would be starting to worry about AK a little here as a hand maybe villain did not raise pre. They only raise 5.4% so maybe it is in their range. I dont think I could get myself to fold in game knowing some villains still do this with AJ and A10. A9 scares me a little too but that means more implied odds if hit (potentially anyway) so I think I make the call but am not fist pumping at all here.
Obviously we prefer a spade on the river but I would think in game this is a very good card. I would not put the villain on any 3x hand other than 33 which is tough to have now so it is a set blocker. Only realistic set is 99 now because I dont think villain leads 22 on the flop into all those opponents. If Im beat its more than likely AK, A9 or 99 but those are few. No draws got there outside of 45 and I cant put villain on that. It scares me though as I dont think this is a villain just based on stats that is going to triple barrel bluff much and they did lead into 4 people on the flop. They have something. Does AJ triple barrel here? Depends on villain but I dont think so. I think they might bluff catch here. Two clubs could do this but it goes back to triple barreling. Plus I would think villain would bet less on the turn with only two clubs to give themselves a better price.
I am torn here on this river because the hands that beat us are few in number (assuming we have villain on correct range which we all know now is wrong) but I dont think they triple barrel enough (based on their aggression) with worse Ax or missed draws here. Plus, again the turn bet sizing does not say only two clubs to me. I really dont like either option here to be honest but in the end I think make the mistake of calling here in game.
In general I tend to be cautious with stats. Because many times the information they provide has a significant bias. Mainly when the hand samples are small.
I recommend looking primarily at the VPIP and PFR values, to get a superficial idea of the type of player we are dealing with (but not to rely too much on stats).
In this case, it is interesting that villain (HJ) does not have a 3-bet range preflop, for a sample of 97 hands. Also if we know that HJ plays a VPIP: 13%, these are data that should be considered when V places a big size OTF donk bet on 4MWP. And the main reason is the narrow range of the hand opener (the MP).
It is true that the MP range devalues significantly when the opener checks on this board OTF. However, this does not exclude the possibility that MP will seek to enter check-raise mode, when he has a strong value but with inverse implied probabilities of improving on the next fairways (again, do not trust too much on stats).
But the latter did not happen and now the HJ has the rank advantage, because after our call and BB's call, the strongest values are represented by the donk bettor, while BB and hero concentrate all the flush draws combos.
On the turn the story doesn't change much. The villain is still betting big, and our perceived range perhaps gets a little more equity, with new draws. (our values have all Q's, that are possibly caught in this spot)
Obviously nobody can expect 3X in the V range, however it is possible to include the AK combos in the HJ range, given the passivity of his preflop game.
Of course it's not a big mistake to call OTR, especially if we are concentrating on balance. The problem is that the ranks become unbalanced more often when the pot is multi-player.
Also in this sequence, we clearly do not represent a good bluff catcher and it is unlikely that we will get value from worse hands, given the super passive characteristics that this villain has.
Flop is fine.
Fold turn. You're behind here almost every time if he's still betting after two flop callers. Especially someone this tight.
Fold river. The best you can hope for here is a split, and he's not betting worse for value. He's not going to have enough bluffs in his range after betting the turn unless he's a drooler.
As a side note, since I can see you're using Drivehud, use the Cardschat export format when posting. It's much easier to read when posting.
re: Poker & $25 NLHE Full Ring: Thoughts on this play? Much appreciated.
[QUOTE=On the turn the story doesn't change much. The villain is still betting big, and our perceived range perhaps gets a little more equity, with new draws. (our values have all Q's, that are possibly caught in this spot)
In a part of my opinion, I wanted to say that we have all the aces in our range (not Queens as I mentioned in my comment), who are possibly getting too committed in this pot.
In preflop we could consider sqz, but I can also understand calling when one of the blinds is sticky.
HJ player bet on the flop indicates that he has ACE a lot of the time cause he's betting on 4 PLAYERS, on the turn his bet looks like a protection bet from draws like flush draws, and on the river , I don't think that AJ or Ax lower will NOT shove on the river, maybe AK will shove on the river to get call from aces with lower kicker. If we SIMPLIFY the hands that will shove on the river for VALUE will be SETS, TWO PAIRS, TRIPS , FULLHOUSE and AK, and for BLUFFS? not a lot really because he BETS on the FLOP on 4 people, BETS on the TURN on 2 PEOPLE and BETS on the river with the opponent that has an ACE a lot of the time.