$25 NLHE Full Ring: Should i have value bet the river?

[Eidde4891]

Hijack was new to the table. I had almost 50 hands on him, but most of those were played at nl10. I assumed he was playing a bit tighter at nl25. When he checks here is it a good check back or should i value bet? Its hard because he is kind of unknown.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
MP ($45.22) [VPIP: 20.3% | PFR: 5.1% | AGG: 23.3% | Hands: 205]
HJ ($29.74) [VPIP: 38.3% | PFR: 25.5% | AGG: 32.1% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 37.5% | River Agg: 20% | 3-Bet: 4.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 48]
CO ($32.61) [VPIP: 14.9% | PFR: 8.4% | AGG: 36.6% | Hands: 730]
HERO ($33.37) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 12.6% | AGG: 29.6% | Flop Agg: 35.4% | Turn Agg: 28.2% | River Agg: 22.4% | 3-Bet: 6.8% | 4-Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 9.3% | Hands: 7891]
SB ($40.34) [VPIP: 29.6% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 34.6% | Hands: 336]
BB ($46.86) [VPIP: 15.7% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 39.7% | Hands: 339]
UTG ($32.06) [VPIP: 10.9% | PFR: 9% | AGG: 36.5% | Hands: 642]
EP ($30.97) [VPIP: 16.8% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 44.9% | Hands: 132]

Dealt to Hero: Q:diamond: A:spade:

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To $0.70, CO Folds, HERO Calls $0.70, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.59 effective]
Flop ($1.75): A:diamond: T:diamond: 4:diamond:
HJ Bets $1.66 (Rem. Stack: $27.38), HERO Calls $1.66 (Rem. Stack: $31.01)

Turn ($5.07): A:diamond: T:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:spade:
HJ Bets $4.79 (Rem. Stack: $22.59), HERO Calls $4.79 (Rem. Stack: $26.22)

River ($14.65): A:diamond: T:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:spade: T:club:
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

Spoiler

HJ shows: A:heart: 9:spade:

HERO wins: $13.84

 

[blueskies]

Yeah I would put in a small value bet (50% pot or less). AK is really the only hand that would beat you but check the river. Other hands that would beat you likely would fire a third barrel on the river given the high probability that you would check behind if he checked to you.

 

[Eidde4891]

Yeah kind of the same lines I was thinking. So bet half pot and fold to a raise or jam?

 

[blueskies]

I haven't played 25NL before so I don't know if players are capable of check raise bluffing on the river after barrelling twice on the flop and turn.

At 10NL I have never experienced it. Typically they would barrel a 3rd time if they had the goods. If they bet flop and turn but check the river, they typically would just call if you bet behind.

By checking the river, he basically turns his hand into a bluff catcher, so a call would be most likely.

I just don't know what hand he would have that would check raise for value. Would he bet a T on the flop and turn only to check when he makes trips?

Was he betting a flopped flush only to slow down when the board pairs? Then why would he raise when you bet if he was concerned enough about a possible FH in the first place to check?

Maybe at high stakes players will get tricky and check raise the nuts or something close to the nuts.

So a check shove would feel very suspicious to me. Still, I would lean toward folding if jammed on. Though if I felt the player is full of it, I would call.

But, as I mentioned, I have never had a single hand where the action went bet bet check raise jam from villain at 10NL.

 

[mktpppr]

All fine.

We block some of his bluffs, so leaning more towards betting than checking back is fine.

If villain check/jams then we have to bet/fold, which sucks, and is reason why I take easy way out and check back.

 

[gustav197poker]

3-bet preflop against an open opponent, it's not so good to flatten when you leave a better price to the blinds (the big blind specifically).
On the flop you have a very good hand to recover value and now raise the big polarized bet of V.
Could V have a better flush with Kd? Yes, but this is less likely when the opponent started his game from a position like HJ. Keep in mind that you are blocking the most likely combo which is QKdd, so your villain needs to open until KJ, since the combo is also eliminated: AKdd.
The turn is an absolute brick so checking there is the most standard option, according to what was played on previous streets.
The river is bad for our range so the check line is good.
Greetings.