$25 NLHE Full Ring: Bluff all-in on River +EV?

[ciriciric]

Note on the villain: Very tight player MP rfi 9 (2/22) Always avoids huge pots.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8qUueyR


Question:
Although he called do you think this is +EV play if you are assuming that the villain here has QQ, KK, AA which I was pretty confident that he had based on larger pf open and pot size bet on the flop. I tend to believe that asking villains at small stakes to fold overpairs doesn't work often, but with T in my hand and no heart, it just felt like a pretty good bluff spot where I can have all the flushes and QTstraights and sets.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
From such an early position I would look to use a fold or 3-bet strategy. The issue with calling is, you open the door for everyone behind to squeeze. Maybe you are a little protected, if everyone perceive this player as very tight, but if he is very tight, why do you even want to get involved with him? I dont want to 3-bet this hand against someone with a perceived tight range, so I would just fold.

Flop
SB came along for the ride as well, you flopped a gutshot with two overs, and now the preflop raiser bets full pot. If he is that kind of nitty player, which you say, then this scream overpair or even set betting "for protection" on the wet board. You are not getting good odds to draw to just a gutshot, 7h could spell trouble for you, and you also still have SB left to act. He has just naturally checked to the preflop raiser, so he might have flopped a set or big combodraw, that he wants to check-raise. So once again I would just fold.

Turn
Other than a 7 this was the best card in the deck for you, because you picked up 4 additional straight outs. When he check, I would also bet. Even though his hand looks like an overpair, maybe he could still have some AK or AQ, that was taking a stab on the flop and shuts down, because he got both players to call. And you obviously want him to fold that. You also want SB to fold, whatever he is still hanging on with.

River
I am not a huge fan of this bluff. As you say yourself, it is a tall order to ask someone to lay down an overpair, which is probably still a large part of his range given the preflop and flop sizing tells. I also think, you have a little bit of showdown value, since he could perhaps have hands like AK/AQ/KQ of hearts, that take this line, and you beat those hands now, since you rivered a pair. I also think, spades coming in is less scary for him than hearts coming in, because for you to have spades, it would need to be pretty much 8X or 6X exactly. And finally I dont think, your blockers are important, because he probably dont open QT and certainly not T7 anyway. It would be more important to block spades, which you dont. So I would just check back and take my small chance of winning at showdown.

Conclusion
To me this whole hand is a little FPS (fancy play syndrome) to be honest with you, and I think, if you want to play like this, 6-max might suit you better. At full ring I think, you will end up with a result like this a little bit to often for this to be long term profitable.

 

[300HPGOD]

I agree with fundiver here on the FPS. You had multiple spots to get away from this hand and if you dont want to get away from it then you need to play it aggressively and let fold equity be an option for you from the start. I dont like the way you played pre, flop or river but I like the turn bet and sizing. You took your shot at your bluff there and villain called. That to me means the J didnt scare them enough and with an undercard to the J coming on the river they probably arent folding (yes the flush came in but I just dont see a fold there from villain). I much prefer taking the showdown value you have (debatable how much it is but it is some at least) rather than bluffing another barrel there. If your 9 is good enough there then they would be folding to your bet anyway and you would not be winning any more chips so to me you would be turning your pair into a bluff again and if you thought a pair needed to be turned into a bluff on the river then you probably should not have bet the turn or called the flop.

You cant be calling pot sized bets on the flop with the strength hand you had if you want to win long term. You wont be going against enough bluffs plus catch enough cards for it to be profitable in the long run.

 

[Evan Jarvis]

Note on the villain: Very tight player MP rfi 9 (2/22) Always avoids huge pots.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8qUueyR


Question:
Although he called do you think this is +EV play if you are assuming that the villain here has QQ, KK, AA which I was pretty confident that he had based on larger pf open and pot size bet on the flop. I tend to believe that asking villains at small stakes to fold overpairs doesn't work often, but with T in my hand and no heart, it just felt like a pretty good bluff spot where I can have all the flushes and QTstraights and sets.

The river bet is certainly reasonable given that you hold no hearts in your hand and that spades completed.

That being said, when one of the flush draws misses (the one you're more likely to have given how the hand was played) most players don't tend to look to fold overpairs.

I think it's a case where blockers got the best of you, when your opponent player type should be a more primary factor in deciding whether to follow thru or shut down

Great question and thanks for sharing this post!