$25 NLHE 6-max: Set King facing raise OTT

[siwanat99]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124yDnmZ4

UTG (Hero): $34.91 (140 bb)
MP: $32.72 (131 bb)
CO: $21.60 (86 bb)
BU: $24.35 (97 bb)
SB: $26.20 (105 bb)
BB: $16.25 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with K♦ K♣
Hero raises to $0.62, 1 fold, CO calls $0.62, 3 players fold

Flop: ($1.59) K♥ T♠ A♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.76, CO calls $0.76

Turn: ($3.11) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $2.08, CO raises to $4.16, Hero calls $2.08

River: ($11.43) 7♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero ?

Don't have stats on him. Do u lose this hands normally?

 

[Alucard]

Definitely 3betting OOP & vs that sizing on Turn & jamming riv
As played Riv is a call for me. I'm not folding a set there vs the majority

 

[fundiver199]

You lose to slowplayed AA and a bunch of different straights. But if he can have any of those hands based on previous action, then he can also have a lot of two pair, worse sets or bluffs. So I think, KK is simply to strong to fold here, and if he has it, good hand to him.

 

[Aballinamion]

Overplaying 2nd Set OTR. Line: check-jamming

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124yDnmZ4

UTG (Hero): $34.91 (140 bb)
MP: $32.72 (131 bb)
CO: $21.60 (86 bb)
BU: $24.35 (97 bb)
SB: $26.20 (105 bb)
BB: $16.25 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with K♦ K♣
Hero raises to $0.62, 1 fold, CO calls $0.62, 3 players fold

Flop: ($1.59) K♥ T♠ A♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.76, CO calls $0.76

Turn: ($3.11) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $2.08, CO raises to $4.16, Hero calls $2.08

River: ($11.43) 7♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero ?

Don't have stats on him. Do u lose this hands normally?

Hello there siwanat99, thanks for sharing it and congratualtions for your performance, you are playing very good and have a pretty nice winrate, I'm glad to see it. However, you still commit some little mistakes postflops, nothing that could be the end of the world, but in the end of the month can make a huge difference on your X BB / 100 stats.

The Preflop

Standard.

the postflop

The Flop

As you said dear mate "Don't have stats on him", so you should have played this more cautiously. Of course it is good to hit a monster set OTF, but we are not playing hands anymore, we are playing our entire range.
Some players will tell you that this is normal, that you should c-bet 100% of scenarios like this, because this is the only thing they know: some players are simply c-betting/raising/3-betting 100% of its value range without any concern for Villain's ranges and when they get lose they find the low excuse that "it is normal, it is what it is, it was a cooler", when it was not! Yes, some regulars never think about a check-folding range, which means: they are weak. If we are only betting on and on, we are not different from fishes.
Some players use the excuse that because fishes are not thinking about the game that we should not think as well...reductio ad absurdum
Your C-bet OTF is okay, but you can go by CHECKING too, and this is not wrong, because this is something we usually do most of times when we are OOP. (we should play the same hand in different ways so we do not turn the reading for our opponents easy).
Here, UTG/Hero can have KK, TT, AA, AT, AK, KT, QJ, etc, but we are not only opening these hands! We are raising 22, 33, AJ, AQ, etc, my question here is how do we play the 12% of our range that miss the flop and not this beautiful idealistic scenario where we do hit 3% of our range, or less, and this is something that many regulars don't even completely understand, they think they should be betting/bluffing 100% range, 100% of times, without no regards to the poker science.

The Turn

We go for 2/3 pot and Villain makes a non-sense raise, cheaper than the size of the pot.
Our hands here are very strong, but by the same token we have no idea who we are playing with, so as a default I would be only calling this raise here to evaluate river.
If you don't know who your Villain is, it is most likely that it is a recreational. Recreational players don't know how to bluff in situations like this, what do you expect here, that Fish complete a flush draw of diamonds and it is raising turn, giving a very cheap and delicious price for us only with draws?

What, recreational decided out of nowhere to raise turn with QdXd? JdXd? XdYd?
Okay we know that this guy doesn't have KK, or any K on its range, this guy doesn't have also AK, because we believe it would be 3-betting preflop AdQd it is impossible on Villain's range, also no AA, so do you really believe CO is raising very cheap OTT with TT, 88, A8, etc?

The River

Here is one of the greatest flaws of almost all the regulars in spots like this: you check and Villain/CO comes for a pretty nice Pot Bet, good price huh?
In situations like this where CO calls flop/ x/r Turn and bets river which bluffs do you expect to find? Or are you calling with the same excuse of weak regulars: "I called/raised because Villain was a fish, I called/raised because I had odds, etc".
OTR, in the best case scenario, if we do believe our opponent bluffs too much we are calling, and we are not calling very happy, because now CO hits all of its bluffs such as J9 for example, QJ, and other hands that could be raising OTT for bluff/value. But we have no idea about this player, so when we raise this river, we are turning our beautiful value hand into a ugly bluff, besides we have no idea what did it raised OTT. :heeeellll
It is a great mistake to be shoving this river, because you allow CO to play close to perfection: if CO/Villain was bluffing or with dominated hands such as A8 for example, Villain can now easily muck and only pay your shove with J9 and QJ as recreational players use to do.
This is not a cooler, this is an expandable situation where we should not be overplaying the Top of our range under any excuses.
Put this into your mind: bad players/regs, have no idea at all of what they are doing, they get a strong hand and stop using their brains, they just start to put chips on the middle.
Bad regs don't know how to bluff in situations like this, so you must have the discipline to beat your own ego and find folds in situations like this and do not feel afraid to be bluffed by idiots.
It doesn't matter if you have Top Set, or Quads if you are never going to be paid by dominated hands, instead, Sets and Quads that are beating the hell out of your range.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Aballinamion]

You lose to slowplayed AA and a bunch of different straights. But if he can have any of those hands based on previous action, then he can also have a lot of two pair, worse sets or bluffs. So I think, KK is simply to strong to fold here, and if he has it, good hand to him.

What are you folding on a river like this?
Because if you believe KK is too strong to be folding to a fish here, you are folding nothing at all:
You are going in with KK, AA, TT, 88, 77, AK, AT, and I don't expect many A7 and A8 on your range but I guess you believe this hands are strong enough too, to be calling/jamming OTR.
Which hands do you fold here, AJ? 22?

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[fundiver199]

What are you folding on a river like this? Because if you believe KK is too strong to be folding to a fish here, you are folding nothing at all

It is just the other way around actually. KK is one of the very best hands, I can even have. So if I dont call with KK, I am calling with literally nothing at all. I am not a GTO guy, and I dont work with solvers. But just right off the bat, here is, what I think, my river range might look like after raising UTG, C-betting flop and bet-calling that mini-raise on the turn:

J9s (4), AA (3), KK (3), TT (3), AK (9), ATs (2), A8s (3), KTs (2), AQ (12), AJ (12) = 50 combos

He is betting almost pot, which mean, I am supposed to call a little more than 50% of the time. This mean, that to play GTO, I should call here with two pair or better. I reality though I would probably ditch two pair except AK, so I would still be overfolding somewhat. Which I think is ok, given that this line from a fish is skewed towards value.

 

[Aballinamion]

I fold AQ (12), AJ (12), ATs (2), A8s (3), KTs (2) = 31 combos

I call J9s (4), AA (3), KK (3), TT (3), AK (9) = 19 combos

He is betting almost pot, which mean, I am supposed to call a little more than 50% of the time. This mean, I am overfolding somewhat, but I am ok with that, because I think, he is not very likely to bluff with this line. He is however likely to not understand his situation, and therefore I call with hands, that beat those hands, he might overplay like A8, AT etc.


If I fold KK, I obviously also fold AK and TT. And why not AA as well, since that hand obviously also lose to a straight. That mean I am only calling 4 combos and folding 46, which is massively overfolding and massively getting owned, if he ever has anything other than a straight. I am not overly concerned with trying to play GTO, but I prefer to make small adjustments rather than massive adjustments, which might end up being super wrong.

Yeah, and it is super right to assume that a recreational will have 50% of bluffs on a river like this.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[fundiver199]

I edited my post, before you replied. Sorry for that. The meaning did not change though. And no I do not think, he has 50% bluffs. But I think, he will sometimes overplay a hand like two pair thinking, its the nuts. This is why, I call with sets rather than AJ, even though AJ block the straights.

 

[Aballinamion]

I edited my post, before you replied. Sorry for that. The meaning did not change though. And no I do not think, he has 50% bluffs. But I think, he will sometimes overplay a hand like two pair thinking, its the nuts. This is why, I call with sets rather than AJ, even though AJ block the straights.

Hi fundiver199, first of all, you are far a better player than me, I can see for your comments and for the hands you post. Second, it is never my intention to be leveling on the forum, to demonstrate that I have a greater understanding of the game.
With all due respect, this analysis seems nayve from the technical point of view.
It seems to me that you are measuring the Villain for your whole capacity and ability as a player. You are emulating what would you do in a scenario like this OTR, and I believe you have the skills to be bluffing on a river like this 50% of times with QdX, JdX, you name it.
Let's stop being personal when we talk about poker and more professional, I have nothing personal against you or the way you think, or anyone else here in the foum, I love everybody who is involved and engaged with poker and dedicate their times here.
So, without further duo, and not being too much platonic or even narcisists, i.e, measuring Villains for ourselves, let's look to some practical and useful observations:

A) We always have range advantage on flops like this
B) Villain never has the best hands because it cold called preflop
C) Villain is unknown
D) Villain check-raises turn having range disadvantage vs turn texture
E) Villain gives a very good price OTR
F) OTR: Villain can have more nutted hands x price given than bluffs, i.e, more combos of QJ and J9 than UTG.

Here, OTR, I am more inclined for calling when Villain goes all-in. Because when Villain goes all-in OTR, Villain still has some bluffs on its range (missed FD of diamonds, with some few missed SD), but when Villain gives such a marvelous, wonderful, amazing price, we should ask ourselves what this means and get out of our egos and consider that Villain is, in fact, and only, a weak player. There is no overthinking here, it is a known fact that it is more likely that an unknown player at 25 NLHE to be a recreational, given that the poster of the hand is the regular, not the contrary.
You are overstimating the abilities of your Villains, based upon your own skill set.
Considering all of this, we are trying to get to the next level, and it is hard to get there.
However, it is your own right to believe that an unknown recreational would be bluffing or turning dominated value hands into bluffs on this specific river/situation, giving such a good price.
A good price serves exacty to induce dominated and very strong hands to be calling/jamming more often and that's exactly what happened. To end all of this, I believe that calling here is a small mistake, if we do only call 100% of times, because if we do mix between folding and calling okay, and I believe that jamming here is a huge mistake.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Aballinamion]

I fold AQ (12), AJ (12), ATs (2), A8s (3), KTs (2) = 31 combos

I call J9s (4), AA (3), KK (3), TT (3), AK (9) = 19 combos

He is betting almost pot, which mean, I am supposed to call a little more than 50% of the time. This mean, I am overfolding somewhat, but I am ok with that, because I think, he is not very likely to bluff with this line. He is however likely to not understand his situation, and therefore I call with hands, that beat those hands, he might overplay like A8, AT etc.


If I fold KK, I obviously also fold AK and TT. And why not AA as well, since that hand obviously also lose to a straight. That mean I am only calling 4 combos and folding 46, which is massively overfolding and massively getting owned, if he ever has anything other than a straight. I am not overly concerned with trying to play GTO, but I prefer to make small adjustments rather than massive adjustments, which might end up being super wrong.

Okay fundiver199, you win, but remember that we don't need to play GTO versus unknowns/recreational players, ever! We play GTO versus regulars and good players, and that's what I am trying to say, that folding here is deviating from GTO, because we know for sure that our Villain/Opponent is not a GTO player, is a donkey trying to get value OTR and we should exploitatively deviate from GTO and fold in a decent frequency.
Remember Nathan 'blackrain79' Williams? We do not play GTO versus idiots, period.
I would love to discuss a little more about your tree-range, which is awesome, but I guess I am being too much boring and nerd here. But if you allow me, I would like to say a few words about your tree-range building.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[fundiver199]

The main reason I call here is to not fall victim to an accidental value bluff. Imagine its a live game. You go into the tank and end up folding your set. The Villain then show A8 offsuit to be nice to you and prove, he was not bluffing. How do you feel about that?

 

[fundiver199]

Anyways this is an interesting spot and also one, that sucks quite a bit, because a bad player can have way more straights, than we can. We dont really disagree that much in the way, we see the spot. I am just not willing to go quite as far as folding a set

 

[gustav197poker]

Anyways this is an interesting spot and also one, that sucks quite a bit, because a bad player can have way more straights, than we can. We dont really disagree that much in the way, we see the spot. I am just not willing to go quite as far as folding a set

And if the villain was a real nit 8/8 what do you think about a possible fold in the river?

 

[siwanat99]

Okay fundiver199, you win, but remember that we don't need to play GTO versus unknowns/recreational players, ever! We play GTO versus regulars and good players, and that's what I am trying to say, that folding here is deviating from GTO, because we know for sure that our Villain/Opponent is not a GTO player, is a donkey trying to get value OTR and we should exploitatively deviate from GTO and fold in a decent frequency.
Remember Nathan 'blackrain79' Williams? We do not play GTO versus idiots, period.
I would love to discuss a little more about your tree-range, which is awesome, but I guess I am being too much boring and nerd here. But if you allow me, I would like to say a few words about your tree-range building.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Anyways this is an interesting spot and also one, that sucks quite a bit, because a bad player can have way more straights, than we can. We dont really disagree that much in the way, we see the spot. I am just not willing to go quite as far as folding a set

I would love to see both of u discuss more that's good for me haha and thx so much for ur time

 

[fundiver199]

And if the villain was a real nit 8/8 what do you think about a possible fold in the river?

If he is an 8/8, then his entire cold calling range is setmines, which mean, he will usually show us TT or 88 here, and our set will be the best.

 

[gustav197poker]

If he is an 8/8, then his entire cold calling range is setmines, which mean, he will usually show us TT or 88 here, and our set will be the best.

We have setmines rank advantage. The only exception would be if the villain decides to get out of their line and make a preflop call with JQs. This would only be possible very few times and perhaps more likely on a table with few limpers.

 

[Aballinamion]

The main reason I call here is to not fall victim to an accidental value bluff. Imagine its a live game. You go into the tank and end up folding your set. The Villain then show A8 offsuit to be nice to you and prove, he was not bluffing. How do you feel about that?

Thanks for the input. Like I said many times, I am more inclined to call this delicious priceless c-bet river when I am facing a known aggro donkey. I call almost always versus very aggressive players because I know TAGs, LAGs and Aggro Donkeys will have bluffs and dominated hands trying to get thin value OTR.
I am never calling, unless the odds are real much better than the price given, when the opponent is completely unknown, passive fishes, passive tights and all types of players that I have information to have a very low % of bluffs postflop.
Again, here we are guessing and protecting our range against A8, TT, when there is no need for such protection (GTO). WE don't need to call here, even with a good price to avoid being overbluffed OTR.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa