$25 NLHE 6-max: Overpair on low board, how much to bet on river?

[bgomez89]

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $39.89
BB: $42.62
UTG: $22.48
MP: $25.00
Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $21.54

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has T:club: T:spade:

fold, MP raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.60, 3 players) 5:diamond: 2:heart: 8:club:
MP checks, Hero bets $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, fold

Turn: ($6.10, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero bets $4.25, BTN calls $4.25

River: ($14.60, 2 players) J:heart:
Hero bets...

ok so

MP is an 18/16/63 over 74 hands
BTN is a 16/3/86 over 40 hands

Not really sure why MP didn't cbet but i felt that a vbet from me was a good move. After btn calls my turn bet alarm bells are kind of going off saying "SET SET SET" because broadways the board is a little dry and the only straight he could have is with 67(which is possible).

Idk is there value to be had on the river and should i bet for thin value, maybe around $6-$7 or is river a c/f?

 

[c9h13no3]

Interesting hand. Flop play is fine, although I'd typically bet a little bigger.

1) The 3-bet preflop decision should be in your head here. 16% PFR keeps his range wide enough that we won't be getting insta-4bet every time. If this guy has any tendency to call 3-bets, I'd consider putting some more action in preflop.

2) I don't think a bad TAG could slowplay a set on that turn. Lots of draws out there, and they'll usually quit slowplaying on the turn anyways. Given the action thus far, I'm deffo not thinking *set set set*.

3) The jack changes very little. There are lots of 1 pair hand combinations you beat (99, A8s, 87, 89, 8T). There are also a decent chunk of hands you don't beat (sets, JJ-AA, maybe 67). Our opponent likely calls with most of that whole range, but he bets all the ones we are beaten by and checks back all the ones we beat him with. Seems like a super-duper obvious bet/fold.

 

[bgomez89]

Mp stats are dif from btn. Btn Isnt a tag

 

[c9h13no3]

Mp stats are dif from btn. Btn Isnt a tag

Semantics. When I say "bad TAG" I pretty much just mean anyone who's got a VPIP of less than 20% preflop, and who has bad stats. They know they should play tight pre, but that's about as far as their thinking goes.

 

[bgomez89]

Oops didn't see the bad part. I like b/f too but how much

 

[c9h13no3]

As much as 8x will call.

Since this player is pretty bad, I'd lean towards keeping it small. They're not going to bluff-raise you, they're not going to think about what you have. They're just gonna go "ehh... $8 more to see a showdown, why not".

A better player will realize two things. First, he'll realize the board ran out for 8x about as good as it could without improving him. Secondly, he'll realize that after 3 barrels, a hand like 98 is a bluff catcher. So I think those two factors make them more likely to call a bigger bet, since they can do things like put you on AQ (you'd barrel the turn, since you turned a draw). If you were up against the 18/16/47, I'd bet like $12 on the river.

 

[johnnytt]

I am trying to think of many hands that a 16/3 guy calls the river with that we beat cant think of many unless he has like 98s or something. This type of guy flats hands like JJ or QQ pre and might be just calling down with set with plan to raise river.

I make a small river bet and fold to a raise but i cant think of much you beat here that calls a bet.

 

[c9h13no3]

If villain never plays any 8's other than suited ones (A8s, 98s, 87s), then we've got a thin v-bet on the river. And in my experience, players call wider than you'd think. The only other line here is to check/fold, and I don't like that line the way the board ran out and the fact that they called in position (so their range widens a lot).

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=5d+2h+8c+4s+Jh&g=he&h1=TcTs&h2=A8s%2C+98s%2C+78s%2C+99%2C+77%2C+66%2C+AA-TT&s=classic

http://www.propokertools.com/simula...,+78s,+99,+77,+66,+AA-TT,+88,+55-22&s=classic