Do you guys agree with just calling river or do you think I'm playing scared? I just figured that if I jam on this board I'm essentially only ever getting called by boats so it doesn't make sense to raise.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: 119.8 BB (VPIP: 29.26, PFR: 22.74, 3Bet Preflop: 8.37, Hands: 67,230)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.83, PFR: 15.70, 3Bet Preflop: 7.87, Hands: 231)
UTG: 300.24 BB (VPIP: 20.77, PFR: 16.43, 3Bet Preflop: 10.39, Hands: 216)
CO: 90.84 BB (VPIP: 35.45, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 111)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♦ 8♦

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 6♦ 5♦ A♥
UTG bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (15.4 BB, 2 players) 6♠
UTG bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

River: (39.4 BB, 2 players) 2♦
UTG bets 23 BB, Hero calls 23 BB

Results below:

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

UTG shows K♠ A♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 69%, Flop 52%, Turn 69%)
Hero shows A♦ 8♦ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 31%, Flop 48%, Turn 31%)
Hero wins 81.16 BB

0.96 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

Villain was UTG here and he probably doesn't have A6 in his range. 65s, AA, 55 are the hands that beat us here that he might of played like that, and he might not even open 65s from UTG. We have an Ace so its highly unlikely he has both of the other Aces in the deck, and the vast majority of the time he has AK/AQ/AJ type hands here. I think you made a loose call on the turn, since you are most likely beat when he double barrels that board, and thus you have to jam the river when you make your flush to fulfill your implied odds. Even if he folds he isnt happy about the calling station who got lucky on the river and it might affect how he plays vs you later in the session.

I think the turn call was too loose, but the river one is definitely right. You are only losing to AA (highly unlikely) and 55 realistically, so never folding there

Turns just a standard call spot anyway surely? Adding 9 outs to the nut flush and at least two outs to a house makes folding terrible.

Just from an implied odds point of view, say we’re always ahead when we hit a flush, 6 or ace we need to win 18.6bb more from a pot of 39bb to break even on the call. Say on average to account for the times we’re behind to a house we need to win 5 more bb. So 23.6bb. It’s still very do able with a 39bb pot to play for.

The problem with the raise is that a fd is the easiest draw to see. But yeah I’d raise here.

Definitely raise on the river here

Loose call on the button. You need a good reason to play this against an UTG raise, like a note that says "villain can't fold top pair".

Flop & turn are great, now raise the river.

I think it's very high percentage UTG got Ax with high kicker. You can try to raise 3b at turn or river to got more value.

Good luck.

i like the flop raise there better top pair and nut flush draw u r in a very good shape there it's too passive to just call, the turn it's ok to call, on the river a min raise look good to me he played the hand like he have a big Ace with min raise he will be willing to call with these kind of hands.
lets see the spoiler AK thas right he played pretty straight forward, u did miss value there.

I think pre is def questionable.

Flop and turn are 100% correct as played though.

The river has to be a raise though. While it's true that it's difficult to get value here, it's just because there's not many combos villain will play this way for value that want to call. However, there's some pretty reasonable worse flushes he can have, as well as hands like AK and AQ when blocking the Kd and Qd, and the only better hands he can hold are 55, 66, and AA, which are collectively 7 combos IF he raises 66 and 55 UTG. If he doesn't have 55 here then he's cut to 4 combos that beat us.

It's also the micros and people generally like making calling mistakes there. I'm raising for value all day.

Originally Posted by micromoi

i like the flop raise there better top pair and nut flush draw u r in a very good shape there it's too passive to just call

Raising the flop is setting money on fire. Our hand has showdown value, raising folds every hand that we beat. By calling, we keep in all his hands that are drawing to very few outs, and if we brick the turn & river, then we’ve kept the pot to a size that’s appropriate for TPNK.

It’s a standard spot, TPNK+flush draw you almost always draw cheaply.

Originally Posted by c9h13no3

Raising the flop is setting money on fire. Our hand has showdown value, raising folds every hand that we beat. By calling, we keep in all his hands that are drawing to very few outs, and if we brick the turn & river, then we’ve kept the pot to a size that’s appropriate for TPNK.

It’s a standard spot, TPNK+flush draw you almost always draw cheaply.

Sometimes we can free roll on the fd. Vs AK we’re a coin flip on this flop, if we raise flop most villains call and check turn, using this combo on the flop as a call is default though. We put AK, AQ in a horrible position by getting aggro.

If we ever turn our hand into a bluff it’s the turn though, utg rarely has a 6 and we block AK. Which I’d imagine a nitty looking reg will fold at a decent frequency to a double barrel.