$25 NLHE 6-max: KK - Overpair by the River, What's my Bet Size?

[bgomez89]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($28.02) [VPIP: 54.7% | PFR: 0.8% | AGG: 43.1% | Flop Agg: 34.8% | Turn Agg: 42.9% | River Agg: 62.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 56% | Hands: 132]
SB ($25.75) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 12.6% | AGG: 39.6% | hands: 113]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 17.3% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 31.2% | Hands: 603]
HERO ($48.87) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 21.2% | AGG: 33% | Flop Agg: 42% | Turn Agg: 27.9% | River Agg: 19.2% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | 4-Bet: 9.6% | Hands: 42685]
HJ ($34.03) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 35.3% | Flop Agg: 21.7% | Turn Agg: 56.3% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 22.2% | Hands: 82]
CO ($38.45) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 23.7% | Hands: 865]

Dealt to Hero: K:club: K:heart:

HERO Raises To $0.75, HJ Calls $0.75, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.75, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [10.49 effective]
Flop ($2.60): 2:heart: 4:spade: J:diamond:
HERO Bets $1.94 (Rem. Stack: $46.18), HJ Calls $1.94 (Rem. Stack: $31.34), BTN Folds

Turn ($6.48): 2:heart: 4:spade: J:diamond: 5:heart:
HERO Bets $4.08 (Rem. Stack: $42.10), HJ Calls $4.08 (Rem. Stack: $27.26)

River ($14.64): 2:heart: 4:spade: J:diamond: 5:heart: Q:heart:
HERO ???

By the river, I put villain on [TT-77,55-44,22,AJs,A5s,A3s-A2s,KJs,QJs,J8s+,AhQh,KhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah4h,AJo,QJo,JTo]

The sets are unlikely so I think I'm only getting raised by flushes/two pair. Do you think something like a half pot bet would be appropriate here or should it be more?

 

[gustav197poker]

I'm not sure why you polarized since the flop, in this dry texture . In such a scenario the villain can easily fold all his dominated hands and continue with those with the best equity. I suppose you have noticed some pattern of continuity to the cbet / flop from the villain, which makes the sequence a reasonable polarization. Continuing with this 100% exploitative line, I would have bet 2/3 on the turn and 3/4 on the river. We might get calls from a sticky J or a queen that the villain thinks he got lucky with in the end. As for V's bluffs, I don't really see any important in his range. If we overbet on the river, we will only receive calls from two pairs and better. I don't recommend these aggressive lines on dry boards, unless we have enough reads from the villain to make us think he's calling too often with dominated hands.
Greetings.

 

[UkoChebuko]

OTF I will use 45%. With my entire range for bet.

OTT I often check. I give him a chance to bet for "defence" with pocket pairs , with TP, with some weak hand (float). He can fold with some of this hands vs Cbet OTT. I don't know nothing here, depends on the HUD. Looks passive. Bet can be better.
But on this card I always will bet. Size ~50%.

OTR , do you really think he will call with all this hands!? HJ vs UTG. I don't know, looks passive, but too wide imo. You forgot about Kjo then...
Pfff...Mate, I think vs "realistic" range for call HJ vs LJ, even vs fish, you don't have enough equity for bet. But let's say he don't have set OTR. Ok, then it is enough. Pretty thin bet...Do you ever think about check-fold in similar spot!? Sometime you must fold...Even if it looks stupid. Vs some players this will be the only option. But very often OTR will be check-check.

Ok, I think 50% bet. Not more...

 

[bgomez89]

I'm not sure why you polarized since the flop, in this dry texture . In such a scenario the villain can easily fold all his dominated hands and continue with those with the best equity. I suppose you have noticed some pattern of continuity to the cbet / flop from the villain, which makes the sequence a reasonable polarization. Continuing with this 100% exploitative line, I would have bet 2/3 on the turn and 3/4 on the river. We might get calls from a sticky J or a queen that the villain thinks he got lucky with in the end. As for V's bluffs, I don't really see any important in his range. If we overbet on the river, we will only receive calls from two pairs and better. I don't recommend these aggressive lines on dry boards, unless we have enough reads from the villain to make us think he's calling too often with dominated hands.
Greetings.

This is a good point. I definitely can see checking the flop being valid although I think villain likely floats dry flops like this in position with a lot. That being said, I should've bet less...

 

[bgomez89]

OTF I will use 45%. With my entire range for bet.

OTT I often check. I give him a chance to bet for "defence" with pocket pairs , with TP, with some weak hand (float). He can fold with some of this hands vs Cbet OTT. I don't know nothing here, depends on the HUD. Looks passive. Bet can be better.
But on this card I always will bet. Size ~50%.

OTR , do you really think he will call with all this hands!? HJ vs UTG. I don't know, looks passive, but too wide imo. You forgot about Kjo then...
Pfff...Mate, I think vs "realistic" range for call HJ vs LJ, even vs fish, you don't have enough equity for bet. But let's say he don't have set OTR. Ok, then it is enough. Pretty thin bet...Do you ever think about check-fold in similar spot!? Sometime you must fold...Even if it looks stupid. Vs some players this will be the only option. But very often OTR will be check-check.

Ok, I think 50% bet. Not more...

On the river, yeah I think he can call a lot of his pairs if the bet is small enough (like you said, under 50%, probably even lower)

 

[UkoChebuko]

I mean preflop..

As I said, fine for me, but very borderline bet imo. Don't forget about the rake. This is NL25 in PS...

 

[gustav197poker]

This is a good point. I definitely can see checking the flop being valid although I think villain likely floats dry flops like this in position with a lot. That being said, I should've bet less...

I'd play UTG vs MP: OR 3x. 1/3 OTF. Then x / x OTT and half pot OTR. If he raises me OTR I evaluate the size and make a decision. Quite possibly it is B / F for NL25.

 

[300HPGOD]

I wouldnt put him on sets here as I would expect them to raise on the turn, especially with a 2nd heart on the board. Their 3 bet% is high enough that I believe AA-JJ would be 3 betting. I see villain having a lot of Jx here. The Queen on the river being a heart takes away the Qx hearts combos that they might call the turn with. I think could be some Ax of hearts hands that would float the flop and then call turn but that is even pretty loose. Since I would be putting villain on Jx here often I would then consider how aggressive they are. The more aggressive they are the more I would lean towards checking with the intention of calling their "bluff" on the river. If villain is not aggressive or I dont feel they aggressive then I like a 40% bet on the river which I am probably folding to a raise depending on sizing.

 

[fundiver199]

Its not the greatest river card to be honest. Not only does it improve his BDFD and his QJ, but it also apply pressure to all those hands, we are trying to get value from. Maybe I am to conservative, but especially with your big sizing on the flop and turn I kind of lean towards checking here and allow him to bluff or overplay his AJ.

 

[elizeuof]

With KK on UTG i prefer to raise to $1, on the flop against 2 players in this board I will raise 1/2 or 2/3 on the flop and in the turn against only one player I think that 2/3 are a good size, maybe I can try to raise the pot, and in the river I will bet the pot.


I believe that the player in HJ should have an AJ, maybe AQ or AK. and depending on the reading you could put it in hands like AXs or a low pair.

Probably he will not raise on the river, unless he has a set or flush, would not put two pair in his hand, or a straight, but it is still a possibility to be considered depending on the play he makes on the river.