$25 NLHE 6-max: JJ OOP 3bet pot bvb, jam or fold?

bgomez89

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Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $58.90
UTG: $31.21
CO: $20.65
BTN: $30.19
Hero (SB): $29.79

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BB raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50, 2 players) T:diamond: 3:heart: 6:club:
Hero checks, BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($13.50, 2 players) 2:diamond:
Hero checks, BB bets $13.00, Hero ???

so no reads on villain but over 24 hands he's a 13/4. People like to 3bet in position alot bvb so I dont know, I really don't want to fold pre. Should I have jammed pre? Do i shove or fold turn?
 
TylerN

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idk much about bvb cuz its not there at my level yet. but if were calling flop then don't we HAVE to call turn
 
c9h13no3

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Jamming the flop or turn is fine with me.
 
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baudib1

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Full tilt 25NL SB vs. BB I'm pretty much treating an overpair as the nuts in this situation. I'd probably 4-bet/get it in pre though.

edit, didn't notice stats, he's pretty sick nitty. i guess folding turn is ok.
 
brank

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I probs 4 bet pre being OOP. Otherwise I think I raise flop and probs dont fold after that point.
 
KardKlub

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Is this the first steal? Or have you done it on the button pre IOU etc? How where you playing the last 24 hands to him. As played your beat so fold. I don't think anything you beat would fire a second barrel on this board.

Flop call is fine but with the continued aggression I'd give him this one
 
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baudib1

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yeah i would lean toward laughing at his retarded sizing, fold and steal the shit out of his blinds later.
 
c9h13no3

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Just saw villain's stats, and yeah, this is a fold on the turn and I play it the same.
 
brank

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Really? Does 3 bet , pot, pot scream strength on such a dry board? Wouldn't a guy like this want to get calls on a board like this if they have us beat?
 
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baudib1

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You're talking about 25NL 6-max nitfish
 
ljove

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Why check flop?You have overpair and you have to bet.If you think he has QQ+ then you should fold preflop.I don't like calling with jacks until river
 
bgomez89

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What are you hoping to accomplish by donk betting jlove?
 
c9h13no3

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Completely agree. Curious there is no discussion of it in the thread...
Lets make a crazy assumption. Instead of a PFR of 4%, lets pretend his 3-bet is 4%.

51.402% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
48.598% { JJ }

Where's your 4-bet god now? Truthfully, his 3-bet percentage is probably around 2-3% (since that's what most nits average). We can't 4-bet stack JJ against that range (course, we can't call profitably either). But I'm not overly worried about this guy making moves on us postflop. When he's betting I assume he has us beat, and when he's checking, he's got AK/TT stuff. So I think I'd rather call & play cautiously than 4-bet and get stacks in as a dog. So since I'm not ready to fold jacks after 20ish hands on an unknown, I think I'd roll with this route.

If we had some more data, then I'd just release pre.
 
forsakenone

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fold preflop and save 25$. (well, almost)
 
Sysvr4

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Lets make a crazy assumption. Instead of a PFR of 4%, lets pretend his 3-bet is 4%.

51.402% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
48.598% { JJ }

Where's your 4-bet god now?

That's the problem with the standard stats, they do not take into account specific situations like this. Also, as stated before, 24 hands is almost completely meaningless.

What's your 3bet% in the BB vs a TAG who PFRs you from the SB? I know my range is a lot wider... 4% probably doesn't begin to touch it. I'm too lazy to figure out how to calculate it on Poker Copilot right now, but I'd wager it's double my normal 3Bet. Ok, that's probably a stretch - how about "significantly higher"? :)
 
c9h13no3

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What's your 3bet% in the BB vs a TAG who PFRs you from the SB? I know my range is a lot wider...
4% of 20 hands is one hand! For 6 max, surely you make it around the table 3.3 times playing more than one hand for a raise, no?

While 20 hands is meaningless for a stat like 3-betting, or fold to flop c-bet, its getting you into the right ballpark for VPIP & PFR stats. Its unlikely this guy has a PFR higher than 12%. He's a nit.

So yeah, stats don't take into account situations like this, but neither do nits. They just play premium hands.
 
jbbb

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Turn doesn't change much. If you think you're ahead on the flop you're ahead on the turn. Could have something like KT, AT which is certainly 3-bettable pre in a BVB situation and doesn't want to see overs which might make it tricky for him. Putting him on QQ,KK or AA is pretty hard with 20 hands and anything else that has you crushed would be slower played (eg set).
So maybe c/r flop?
 
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badaboombaa

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Fold flop, he's not bluffing with this sizing and you are well behind his value range.
 
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