Hello Ianmacca99 how you doing? Thanks for sharing your hand with us. Very nice hand!
I am player of 2 NLHE and 5 NLHE and play at maximum 10 NLHE but I made a Cash Course to play 100 NLHE, so I adapt my theory and methods a little.
A little analysis
1) The Preflop Action:
Villain is in the Button with a pretty wide range most of times, opening 3x. The Button has 100 BB Effective Stack. The SB calls the 3x Raise with 85 BB Effective stack behind.
Now Hero in the Big Blind has incredible odds to call this raise to setmine, because both players are relatively Deep Stacked. This is an awesome spot for setmining and Hero decides to call which I believe it is good in general, because it is strange to 4bet light such a weaker Pocket Pair Range from the Big Blind (22-66).
So, I believe the call is fine. If anybody has a different opinion about it please I would like to know it.
2) The Flop action:
Pot size: 9 Blinds
Flop: 2c 10h As
SB checks, Hero checks and Villain Button bets 7.48 Big Blinds in a pot of 9 Blinds???? What???? Because it is multiway Pot it is a pretty huge bet, what is that, more than 80% of the Pot in the Flop versus 2 unknown players out of position (you said that you had only a 15 hands sample with this villain, so I deduce he also had the same sample of you).
3) What Villain in the Button might have in a semi-dry Flop to be betting that much?
A)Values: A2s (not a lot of combos because BB has a lot of removal but just for the purpose of the analysis) T2s which decided to open thinking that the Fish player in the SB would call and that's good being in position, ATo, ATs, are easy hands to open from the Button as a default, a few combos of TT and AA,
B) Bluffs: nonetheless, as long as he/she is in the Button it is more common to him/her to show in his/her Range hands as AKo, AQo, AJo, QJo, QJs, KQo, KQs, QTo, QTs, Q9o, Q9s, KJo, KJs, KTo, KTs, JTo, JTs, J9o, J9s and so on because the Button's Range is very wide most of times so it will easily have a lot of these combos, specially when he bets that much.
My conclusion: When Button makes a large bet like that he has more bluffs than values in his range (a thousands missed broadways in a rainbow flop and only TT, and AA, so, theoretically, Hero in the Big Blind would be losing with the Third Nuts in the Flop, which I believe, when Villain/Button bets so gigantically, that he has a gutter, a draw, etc.
Hero decides to call the 7.48 Big Blinds bet to see a Turn, which I believe it is good but it is not so good as Check-Raising for Value here. You said "Decide against a raise as I want to keep his full range in". And that's what I believe it is a bad ideia. Because after this call you might have to see some back doors flushed get there in the river, and that's not good for you. You might have to see some back door Straights and some Straights being completed, which is also not good.
I believe the Check-Raise here in the Flop will be the most profitable play, than calling, after SB folds, because you have only 15 hands played with this Villain and I believe he is a decent player (because he is playing 25 NLHE), ans specially if you certain that he is a Regular you should be bumping, shooting, killing his odds in the Flop.
When you keep his entire Range of semi-bluff with your call you just gave Villain a good price for bluffing plus position to hit his draws, two pairs, sets, whatever, let's not forget that villain also could have 33-99 as Pocket Pairs and his also that could also setmine in the Turn.
IF the Villain in the Button was a Fish I will seriously advocate for Hero in the Big Blind to Check-Raise for a size as much as you wanted, because in a situation like that you will be winning by far over this X hypothetical Fish, something like 70%, 80%, 90% equity versus him/her.
Note: I believe this guy is not a Regular, because of this gigantic C-Bet Flop MultiWay. But, maybe he had his particulars reasons...
4) The Turn
Pot size: 27.96 BB
Board configuration Turn: 2c 10h As 8c
Hero in the Big Blind Checks and the Villain in the Button hold his horses making a smaller C-Bet Turn of 15.6 Big Blinds (a little more than 1/2 pot). Now the Back Doors Clubs got there and some other part of his range such as T8s, 97s, J9s.
Now Hero bump it up and Check-Raises to 39.2 BB and Button CALLS! OMG this is so amazing that I almost cannot believe.
I believe many lines would have worked against this Villain such as Check-Raise Flop huge sizing, Donkey Bet Flop huge sizing, Donkey Turn and Check-Raise Turn because...it is complicated...
You said that "Decide to bump it up now to get some money in the pot at this point I am putting him on AK AQ type holdings think higher sets or 2 pair hands could also be there a small amount of the time being slow played. I think draws could also be a possibility".
5) The River, the river...the river...
Pot size: 106.36 BB
Board configuration River: 2c 10h As 8c Qc (Nasty dealer!
)
I guess if the Villain in the Button had AK e AQ and decided to call a Check-Raise Turn like that (considerin 25 NLHE as a low stakes games) he would be very, very strange. Mostly Two Pair and Draws are calling in a situation like that and both are good.
If he had a bigger set such as TT, AA, 88, it would be unlikely that he would be Calling your Check-Raise Turn and not shipping all the money in for protection.
I believe you played good but, not so good as it could be, because:
1) Your call in the Flop does not protect your hands from Back Flushes, and Back Door Straights or even a higher Set that could reach the Turn/River
2) When you Check-Raise a weaker Villain like that in position it is unlikely that he is going to leave his draws, because he is watching too much Doug Polk channel and believe he has odds at 25 NLHE (let's forget about the Rake a little...). I don't want to offend anybody but I really believe, my friend, that your Villain in the Button is a weak Regular or a Fish anyhow.
Hero has 74.6 BB left and decides to put a shove, which, personally I don't like it. You will only get called by Flushed and Straights in a situation like that.
Remember, you have started the hand with 100 BB and in the River you still had nearly 75!!! Wait for a better spot, Check the River because if the player has a Straight and sometimes a little sensibility, he/she could also be Checking River because of the Queen of Clubs who got there.
Question:
When you shove the River do you really expect to be paid by worst hands?
When you shove the River and Villain does not have anything to call with and Folds, did you gain value or lost it?
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa