$25 NLHE 6-max: How does my punting range look on the river.

[Morra123]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $27.35 (109 bb)
MP (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)
CO: $25.00 (100 bb)
BU: $25.62 (102 bb)
SB: $34.75 (139 bb)
BB: $24.99 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A♣ K♣
UTG raises to $0.63, Hero 3-bets to $2.25, 4 players fold, UTG calls $1.62

Flop: ($4.85) 4♣ 2♦ 3♠ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.47, UTG calls $3.47

Turn: ($11.79) Q♠ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.72, UTG calls $3.72

River: ($19.23) 9♥ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $15.56 (all-in), UTG calls $15.56

Total pot: $50.35 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
MP (Hero) shows A♣ K♣ (high card, Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 46%, Flop: 41%, Turn: 23%, River: 0%)

UTG shows J♥ J♠ (a pair of Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 54%, Flop: 59%, Turn: 77%, River: 100%)

UTG wins $48.35

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre flop is fine of course 3 betting and we get all others out which is a good scenario for us. I dont like the bet sizing on the flop as pocket pairs will not be folding since they will have an overpair to the board. We get some more value out of worse Ax hands that will stay due to the wheel but I like going smaller, somewhere around half pot. Two reasons I do that is that if I have a big pair here which we repped pre, then I would not be making a huge bet here to get folds I would be making value bets to get calls (half pot or so). Second reason is that if we have to bluff in this hand it should be the turn in my opinion and the turn bet we will want to make a bigger % of the pot than the flop bet to make it look like a stronger bet. As played you did it opposite and bet small on the turn which I disagree with. The Q could have helped your villain but it could help you or be more of a non factor to you if villain thinks we have AA or KK in our range which they do. I would go 2/3rds or so on the turn hoping to get 77-JJ to fold.

When you go small on the turn and villain still calls I would then give up and check the river and take the little showdown value I have. I would feel that if villain didnt fold by this point then the 9 on the river isnt going to make them fold.

 

[Sidetracked]

Solver thinking these days seems to favour smaller bet on the flop ( about 1/3 pot) and then larger bets on the turn (more like 2/3 pot). You did it backwards. The Q could have been a good scare card for your range, but your small sizing let him off fairly easily.

Of course, if he called your river shove, it's unlikely he was folding anyway...