€25 NLHE 6-max: Hero Folding the River on this spot is a good exploit?

J

johnlocke

Rising Star
€25 NLHE 6-max: Hero Folding the River on this spot is a good exploit?

PokerStars - €0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 103 BB
SB: 192.88 BB
BB: 118.16 BB
Hero (UTG): 179.8 BB
MP: 192.72 BB
CO: 101.52 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.4 BB, 2 players) 7 J K
Hero checks, CO bets 6.08 BB, Hero calls 6.08 BB

Turn: (31.56 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, CO bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (71.56 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO bets 66.44 BB and is all-in, fold

CO wins 68 BB



In this spot I realize that in theory I should probably be calling, being up in my range, even despite having the ace of diamonds. My question here is if you think that players at this stakes will bluff often enough that spot in order to make the call acceptable and profitable or the opposite? I noticed people tend to shy away from bluffing when top card pairs, so I decided to make the hero fold, thinking i still have better hands in my range, like straights and FH, and AK with no diamond as well to call with.

I am getting about 2:1 to call.

Anyway I would like to hear your thoughts on this.

Thank you.
 
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G

gustav197poker

Legend
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If you are expecting a 3-bet and decide to simply call OOP, when you are on the flop you should bet some additional value. There are no obvious draws and you have good blockers to balance your range. Raising the pot by now defeating hands like QJs that a CO could play is not a bad idea.
The V 3-bet against hero UTG primarily with value hands and in between his bluffs there might be some middle connectors, maybe: 89s ever got there, although it really shouldn't be very often against a very tight position.
Therefore on the turn the V has a greater amount of values, because we have allowed this player to bet with his entire range. And against it we are not in good shape.
If you want to have an exploitative move, I recommend folding on the turn as a lot of hands came. And when we block the nuts flush draws, in this texture we will be isolating ourselves with the value part of the villain.
Anyway, as played, your river fold seems reasonable to me.
There are obviously other ways to play here. As an example: 4-bet preflop with AKo and take more initiative postflop.
Greetings.
 
S

Sidetracked

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$25 NL definitely plays aggressively enough to 4 bet AK preflop and then call a 5 bet shove.

As played, you're left guessing and check/calling out of position. And then folding the river.
 
C

Casey55

Rock Star
I don’t mind a check-raise OTF, CO probrably raising pre with most of his playable range and we have a pretty strong hand OTF, lots of worse that will call
 
F

fundiver199

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I think, you should consider taking a more aggressive line preflop or even as played on the flop. Especially if you simply dont have a 4-betting range, because then you can also have AA or KK or JJ, and that protects the rest of your range, if he comes back over the top. As played the turn card is pretty bad, since it puts out some different straights. Especially the fact, that AQ comes in, has to be cause for some real concern, since he can definitely have all 12 combos of that. So there is a lot of value, you lose to, and because of that I dont mind your fold on the river. As you say, its also bad, that you hold Ad, since hands like A2-A5 of diamonds are some of his more likely bluffing candidates.
 
liuouhgkres

liuouhgkres

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Preflop: By GTO charts AKo is roughly 50/50 mix between calling 3bet and 4betting, so call is good. Just remember that you shouldn't be always calling, you should 4bet it from time to time.

Flop: This flop is extremely good for villain. You don't have AA, KK and have discounted number of 77 and AK. Villain has a huge advantage and I think you shouldn't have any check-raises here. So, call is good.

Turn: This is an interesting spot. Villain's range is crushing it, however a lot of people underbluff these spots. They need to bluff with A5s-A4s pure and turn small pocket pairs like 88-99 with diamond to bluff, but very few regs are capable of doing it. I think you should exploitatively fold the turn.

River: Villain is saying he has full house. I think going all in even with AQ might be too ambitious in GTO land. However, in real world, people do bet AQ, so he will have more value hands that beat AK in his range. His bluffs should be AJs, ATs, A5s-A4s all with low frequency. I think most villains are not bluffing here with AJs-ATs, so they are probably underbluffing. I thinking folding AK here is good exploitatively.
 
C

Casey55

Rock Star
Preflop: By GTO charts AKo is roughly 50/50 mix between calling 3bet and 4betting, so call is good. Just remember that you shouldn't be always calling, you should 4bet it from time to time.

Flop: This flop is extremely good for villain. You don't have AA, KK and have discounted number of 77 and AK. Villain has a huge advantage and I think you shouldn't have any check-raises here. So, call is good.

Turn: This is an interesting spot. Villain's range is crushing it, however a lot of people underbluff these spots. They need to bluff with A5s-A4s pure and turn small pocket pairs like 88-99 with diamond to bluff, but very few regs are capable of doing it. I think you should exploitatively fold the turn.

River: Villain is saying he has full house. I think going all in even with AQ might be too ambitious in GTO land. However, in real world, people do bet AQ, so he will have more value hands that beat AK in his range. His bluffs should be AJs, ATs, A5s-A4s all with low frequency. I think most villains are not bluffing here with AJs-ATs, so they are probably underbluffing. I thinking folding AK here is good exploitatively.


The GTO charts I use has AKo calling 72% of the time. When I use the weighted solved ranges at 100bb. In this picture Hero's range has the same frequency between check-raising and check calling the the flop with our range. All AK combos are 50/50 between check-calling or check-raising, the other hands we would check-raise would be 77,JJ,KJs,AQs,ATs, and some QTs.





On GTO wizard 50nl/general/100bb it has a much smaller frequency of flatting with AK, actually single digit %.at 6.5%. OTF facing c-bet our range has calling 22.4%, raising for 55% pot at 21.5% frequency and folding the rest.




I think GTO wizards ranges are a bit on the tighter side compared to other solved pre-flop ranges perhaps, with the GTO ranges I use from a site we have more AKo in our range since 70% call the 3-bet.. then our range is a roughly even mix between check-raising and check-calling OTF. I have been noticing how tight GTO wizard plays at the 50nl probrably because of the rake, but I think in reality CO may be c-betting flop with his whole range here and his range should be fairly wide.
 
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liuouhgkres

liuouhgkres

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Wow, I didn't expect that we should raise that often. Should get GTO wizard, looks like a tremendous value.
 
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