$25 NLHE 6-max: $ : Check back for pot control dodging straights and flushes?

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Right to check back the turn here or am I playing my hand face up by checking back? I think I call his river bet to pick off all his bluffs, 2 pairs and sets.

iPoker - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 162.8 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 23)
CO: 124.04 BB (VPIP: 30.43, PFR: 26.09, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 23)
Hero (BTN): 105.16 BB
SB: 93.6 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 23)
BB: 205.08 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 23)
UTG: 103 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 23)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9<font color='red'>♦</font> 8<font color='red'>♦</font>

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) J<font color='red'>♦</font> T<font color='red'>♥</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font>
CO checks, Hero bets 4.68 BB, CO calls 4.68 BB

Turn: (16.76 BB, 2 players) A<font color='red'>♥</font>
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (16.76 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
CO bets 10.36 BB, Hero calls 10.36 BB

CO shows K<font color='red'>♥</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font> (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 78%, Flop 33%, Turn 98%)
Hero mucks 9<font color='red'>♦</font> 8<font color='red'>♦</font> (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 22%, Flop 67%, Turn 2%)
CO wins 35.64 BB
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Id prolly bet the turn... because he could have 2pair hands and sets... also a big heart.

But as played ur checking letting anyone catchup with a heart and letting ppl with sets or 2pairs get their miracle cards for nothing and thats bad.

If we bet turn and get led into on river we are beat and id hope river goes check check... we cant stand a raise on river as well


So yeah i dont like the check


I think the boards so wet/connected you only need to bet like 1/2 roughly

Its thin value but its still there to be made

To make it easier to bet it.. and its very hard for someone to come along and bluff raise on turn as well
 
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mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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i dont think im letting anything catch up here, i think anything he has is already there... Kx makes up such a huge part of his range, and anything else in his range is already there... like maayyybe the river could boat up any of the two pairs or sets in his range, but its unlikely. i think he also folds a lot of his worse hands and calls with everything better if i bet, but he bets a lot of his worse hands on the river if i check it back to him

in this hand, on that turn, his range is two pairs, sets, ace high straights and heart flushes... i guess he could have a heart draw, but is it negative ev to give him a river if it means getting paid by all his worse hands that dont pay me on the turn and im folding always if the river is a 4th heart and he bets?
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Remember hes 30 vpip in cutoff

But yeh the raise on river by him is strong.. so yeh folding riv is pro material... checking turn not falling for slow play...

But yeh hes not that tight of range on turn.... on riv yes
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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if you pull up a hand range selector and look at a 20% range vs a 30% range, the difference between those two ranges is basically every suited king
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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That really means nothing to me..

Im more worried about villains mistakes

And i know ppl will chase flushes on turn esp 30vpip guys n calling with sets as well n sticky 2pairs.


Fish will love aq aj at here
Set q, jacks... slow played aces ppl overplay if making a play.

Qwith Jh... theres a big list man.

U get my point
 
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ninoverm

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Perfectly played imo. Might go a bit bigger on the flop, but this sizing is fine as well. Check back on the turn makes sense. Might get some value out of sets and two pairs, but safe rivers are far better to value bet. If you get raised on the turn you're in an awful spot. Call on the river makes sense, you're at the top of your range at that point.
 
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RakeMyLife

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Turn check is perfectly right imo.

River though...really consider how u might fold this hand. It's certainly easy to say that with hindsight, but really... is it reasonable to think he'd make a VALUE bet with two pair, set, or bluff? Unless u know him well enough to think he would do that, I think most players only bet a straight or flush here. Even amateur players would see 4 to a straight and/or the flush out there and prefer to check.
 
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Bluenipps

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In this specific spot I prefer the check on the turn as played. I think if you have more hands/ knowledge of villian than you can bet for value.

I think there are too many times were if we bet turn and villian calls they lead out on the river, at which point given how wet the board is I don't really like the hand anymore.

Those are my initial thoughts at-least, I think running this through some software might give me a different opinion.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Turn check is perfectly right imo.

River though...really consider how u might fold this hand. It's certainly easy to say that with hindsight, but really... is it reasonable to think he'd make a VALUE bet with two pair, set, or bluff? Unless u know him well enough to think he would do that, I think most players only bet a straight or flush here. Even amateur players would see 4 to a straight and/or the flush out there and prefer to check.
interesting. not player specific, more player-pool specific, but i have seen players in play monotone flops as if there is no flush out there. which i guess is only wrong depending on the action. I think the action gives him reason to believe that i dont have the flush. and when i check the turn, he has to think either im afraid of the straight or i made the straight and im slowplaying. i think he should be more inclined here to think im afraid of the straight, which means i also dont have the flush. so if he has that read on me, than he very well could be capable of betting his 2 pairs and sets here.


In this specific spot I prefer the check on the turn as played. I think if you have more hands/ knowledge of villian than you can bet for value.

I think there are too many times were if we bet turn and villian calls they lead out on the river, at which point given how wet the board is I don't really like the hand anymore.

Those are my initial thoughts at-least, I think running this through some software might give me a different opinion.

I think if we bet the turn and he calls, he most likely checks to us on the river. either we can check back the river and lose , or we can make a mistake and bet. either way, by betting the turn we not only give villain the chance to play turn perfectly but also play the river perfectly. any mistakes on the river are on us from betting the turn
 
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RakeMyLife

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interesting. not player specific, more player-pool specific, but i have seen players in play monotone flops as if there is no flush out there. which i guess is only wrong depending on the action. I think the action gives him reason to believe that i dont have the flush. and when i check the turn, he has to think either im afraid of the straight or i made the straight and im slowplaying. i think he should be more inclined here to think im afraid of the straight, which means i also dont have the flush. so if he has that read on me, than he very well could be capable of betting his 2 pairs and sets here.

See it would seem a little strange to make a call here based on the fact that you think he has a read on you. Your turn check doesn't really tell him that much (or at least not as much as you think).

His bet sizing is key. That's a solid but not crazy bet. He's representing a straight or flush. I just don't think it's likely he doesn't have either...
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Turn check is perfectly right imo.

River though...really consider how u might fold this hand. It's certainly easy to say that with hindsight, but really... is it reasonable to think he'd make a VALUE bet with two pair, set, or bluff? Unless u know him well enough to think he would do that, I think most players only bet a straight or flush here. Even amateur players would see 4 to a straight and/or the flush out there and prefer to check.



This reasoning is why i make the bet on turn :)
 
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RakeMyLife

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interesting. not player specific, more player-pool specific, but i have seen players in play monotone flops as if there is no flush out there. which i guess is only wrong depending on the action. I think the action gives him reason to believe that i dont have the flush. and when i check the turn, he has to think either im afraid of the straight or i made the straight and im slowplaying. i think he should be more inclined here to think im afraid of the straight, which means i also dont have the flush. so if he has that read on me, than he very well could be capable of betting his 2 pairs and sets here.

See it would seem a little strange to make a call here based on the fact that you think he has a read on you. Your turn check doesn't really tell him that much (or at least not as much as you think).

His bet sizing is key. That's a solid but not crazy bet. He's representing a straight or flush. I just don't think it's likely he doesn't have either...

I guess an easier way to put it would be that he's polarized his range with that river bet. Which is more likely...he's bluffing or he hit a straight or flush?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I guess an easier way to put it would be that he's polarized his range with that river bet. Which is more likely...he's bluffing or he hit a straight or flush?

that is a better way to put it. i think when you put it like that. it does make it seem like he's more likely to have it than not with that bet sizing.
 
Aces2w1n

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Question was the turn sir.

And im also thinking how will my opponent react with 4th heart.

Can you check turn and rep a strong flush on river?? Prolly get called down lighter if turn goes check check.

This case our villain will have it but what if his hands not that suit

:)
 
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razzor94

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i dont think im letting anything catch up here, i think anything he has is already there... Kx makes up such a huge part of his range, and anything else in his range is already there... like maayyybe the river could boat up any of the two pairs or sets in his range, but its unlikely. i think he also folds a lot of his worse hands and calls with everything better if i bet, but he bets a lot of his worse hands on the river if i check it back to him

in this hand, on that turn, his range is two pairs, sets, ace high straights and heart flushes... i guess he could have a heart draw, but is it negative ev to give him a river if it means getting paid by all his worse hands that dont pay me on the turn and im folding always if the river is a 4th heart and he bets?

I actually wouldnt mind a 3bet preflop. He seems aggro and probably stealing a lot from CO. I expect a decent amount of folds and even when you get called you do have position and a hand that plays good on flops. Against a 4bet you can fold without thinking much about it.

Now i think you are a litle off when it comes to your range assesment post flop. On a board as wet as this he is never check calling sets, 2 pair, flush draws, and even AK(unless its AK of harts) isnt comfortable playing this board passively. I could see him c betting or check raising all his sets, 2 pairs flush draws, straight draws.
When he check calls i assume he has a pair plus straight draw. Somethink like KT, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ.
Once an A of harts hits i am definetly rulling out any flush draws from his range. I think player of his type is not playing KT, 89 and any lower suited connector of harts on that board like that. It just doesnt make sense plus there is just not that many combos that i am worried about.
While there are no flushes there on the turn and no sets there can be some 2 pairs now and not many. Maybe AJ and AT. Now you could go for thin value there but i think checking back and trying to go to SD is the right play.
When he bets on the riv you have to ask yourself becouse he cant have sets or flushes, would he bet 2 pair on that booard ?
I think he would try to go to for cheap SD there with 2 pair rather then for really thin value and becouse there are not a lot of combos of 2 pair, his range consist much more K in his range that would bet here. Also he cant really put you on a FD couse you played your hand the way you did.
For me its a fold on the riv.
GL
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I actually wouldnt mind a 3bet preflop. He seems aggro and probably stealing a lot from CO. I expect a decent amount of folds and even when you get called you do have position and a hand that plays good on flops. Against a 4bet you can fold without thinking much about it.

Now i think you are a litle off when it comes to your range assesment post flop. On a board as wet as this he is never check calling sets, 2 pair, flush draws, and even AK(unless its AK of harts) isnt comfortable playing this board passively. I could see him c betting or check raising all his sets, 2 pairs flush draws, straight draws.
When he check calls i assume he has a pair plus straight draw. Somethink like KT, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ.
Once an A of harts hits i am definetly rulling out any flush draws from his range. I think player of his type is not playing KT, 89 and any lower suited connector of harts on that board like that. It just doesnt make sense plus there is just not that many combos that i am worried about.
While there are no flushes there on the turn and no sets there can be some 2 pairs now and not many. Maybe AJ and AT. Now you could go for thin value there but i think checking back and trying to go to SD is the right play.
When he bets on the riv you have to ask yourself becouse he cant have sets or flushes, would he bet 2 pair on that booard ?
I think he would try to go to for cheap SD there with 2 pair rather then for really thin value and becouse there are not a lot of combos of 2 pair, his range consist much more K in his range that would bet here. Also he cant really put you on a FD couse you played your hand the way you did.
For me its a fold on the riv.
GL
nice assessment. i liked flatting preflop just because i have position and like you said, it is a hand that plays well on the flop. but a 3bet is probably good too.

your range assessment is spot on though, i should have thought of it that way.
 
Aces2w1n

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cool analysis razzor

Reading it sound great ... but basically that line is weak and giving up on the turn.

Alright so if we check turn for cheap showdown and now fold to any river bet...

Whats the point of checking turn. This is bad advice imo i know u all agree with him.

But basically he has said a line that loses less.. but also wins less :)

My line you bet the turn.. win his bet and he checks to the aggressor and we win more and lose the same.

Arr you people :)
 
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braveslice

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Losing little is as important than winning large, and easier to do.

I don't see any worse hands will call if we bet the turn (if we assume villain not CB means what razzor says, and given opponent is not shy I think he has a good point)? King high flush draw ;P? Granted I'm not familiar with the 25NL. The villain seems to have pro stats, not many hands in though. NL5 i think we could value bet river if villain checks -> making it 2 value bets as wanted, or would you really go 3 streets for value there :0? Haa I think you would.

Btw if we know villain has no flushes, shouldn't we able to bluff him away from the hand lol.
 
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Aces2w1n

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Losing little is as important than winning large, and easier to do.

I don't see any worse hands will call if we bet the turn (if we assume villain not CB means what razzor says, and given opponent is not shy I think he has a good point)? King high flush draw ;P? Granted I'm not familiar with the 25NL. The villain seems to have pro stats, not many hands in though. NL5 i think we could value bet river if villain checks -> making it 2 value bets as wanted, or would you really go 3 streets for value there :0? Haa I think you would.

Btw if we know villain has no flushes, shouldn't we able to bluff him away from the hand lol.



Against someone who is able to make those folds... its not the worst idea.

I prolly dont have that play in me YET but yeah if u pick the right villain right spot... this board i can see that being highly variance but higher ev

Im always more interested in playing the value lines if available over the less losing lines.

Maybe thats just me ... i play to win... not lose slightly less :)
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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it's not just choosing win big lose big or win little lose little, its about the line with the best ratio if winning to losing times the odds of winning (you know, the formula of EV and all) razor explains why we can pretty much narrow villains range down to mostly the Ace high straight with a few two pairs, the line with the best EV is to get the cheapest showdown possible on the turn and fold to the river bet.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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When you fold how much do you win?

Im done with this hand anyway.. cant help that you guys have a losing mentality
 
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braveslice

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The amount equal on the right side of the ev equation :pcguru: Personally I'm surprises I make it sometimes + side. It feels good to have a small heater currently :elefant:
 
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