$25 NLHE 6-max: AKs raised FD on flop against short stack, turn action?

[bgomez89]

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $27.71
BB: $15.20
UTG: $47.60
MP: $19.82
Hero (CO): $28.09
BTN: $59.04

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has A:club: K:club:

fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.85, 2 players) 3:club: 2:diamond: 8:club:
MP bets $0.25, Hero raises to $3.00, MP calls $2.75

Turn: ($8.85, 2 players) 9:heart:
MP checks, Hero ???

Ok so not enough hands on villain to say how he really plays but over 14 hands he's a 50/29/56. After he calls my flop raise i'm thinking he could have sets, maybe 99-TT, maybe FDs(?), and top pairs

On the turn villain has about 15 behind, what should I do? I think I probably should've raised flop more so I could just shove turn but oh well.

 

[c9h13no3]

Reasons to bet

1) Villain calls your c-bet REALLY wide. You put him on a crazy narrow range, and I think you've got a fair chunk of fold equity on the turn because he calls the flop so wide. We're talking overcards, gutshots (56), any pocket pair, 2x/3x, ect.
2) Its a little easier to get stacks in if we bet the turn.
3) I think we can get by with a smaller bet here, ~$4.50 or so leaving villain with like $11 behind a $17 pot.
4) We have the best hand a lot here, and letting villain bluff us off AK when he has A5 or KJ on the river pretty much sucks.


Reasons not to bet

1) Villain is a fish, and even though we have enough fold equity to make a semi-bluff profitable, I'm not sure we have a ton.
2) If Villain bets anything around the $4 mark, we can get him in on the river.
3) The 9♥ makes 99/89/9T/J9/ect. happy, so some of his range got more excited about check/raising all the money in. And the rest of his range isn't really scared of the off suit nine. If the turn was a Q♥, that'd be a better barreling card.


So I honestly don't know what my choice is. I think I'm leaning towards checking back, and shoving any A/K/club river. Spots like these are always close, and I don't think its super important which choice you make. Just be sure to hit, because I absolutely hate when fish win pots.

 

[TorreyB]

c9 is right, it's pretty close on the turn. You still have an edge as you see below with the probabilities. I personally would end up checking the turn.

Probability of having a flush on the river: 19.57%
Probability of having a pair on the river: 34.87%
Probability of having a brick and high card on the river: 45.65%