$25 NLHE 6-max: AK 3bet pot and missed the board, river play?

bgomez89

bgomez89

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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
CO ($37.51) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 18.1% | AGG: 33% | hands: 548]
BTN ($5.42) [VPIP: 53.6% | PFR: 22.3% | AGG: 19.3% | Hands: 113]
SB ($28.86) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 11.2% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 182]
HERO ($32.05) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 32.5% | Flop Agg: 40.7% | Turn Agg: 28.1% | River Agg: 19.7% | 3-Bet: 6% | Fold to 3-Bet: 61.6% | 4-Bet: 9.8% | Hands: 49849]
UTG ($33.94) [VPIP: 28.7% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 39.2% | Flop Agg: 42.5% | Turn Agg: 41.2% | River Agg: 27.9% | 3-Bet: 12% | 4-Bet: 30.8% | Hands: 437]
HJ ($29.23) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 36]

Dealt to Hero: K:spade: A:diamond:

UTG Raises To $0.75, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.20, UTG Calls $2.45

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.44 effective]
Flop ($6.50): T:spade: 3:club: 4:spade:
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $2.07 (Rem. Stack: $28.67), HERO Calls $2.07 (Rem. Stack: $26.78)

Turn ($10.64): T:spade: 3:club: 4:spade: 5:heart:
HERO Checks, UTG Checks

River ($10.64): T:spade: 3:club: 4:spade: 5:heart: 6:spade:
HERO ??

On the river, I put villain on [99-77, AdKd, AhKh, AcKc, AdQd, AhQh, AcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AQo+] I have two questions:

1 - Is this a reasonable range for villain? The low sample size doesn't give me an accurate fold to 3bet so I won't comment on that

2 - How much, if anything, should I bet on this river?
 
John A

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You don't have any flush draws like AsQs, AsJs, etc... any reason why? And villian being IP you probably need to add in 56s, 67s, JJ he might check the turn sometimes.

The river you have some SD value. How often can you get fold out 88/99 really, and what size are you comfortable calling on the river vs. his bluffs. This is one of those spots it's best to value block 45-55% of the pot so you don't get bluffed off the better hand. You might be able to bet even slightly less, just depends how aggressive they are. You aren't going to fold JJ 88/99 often enough to justify a large river bet imho, so you're better off either checking and planning to call X size bet or betting (which I think is the better play) w/o better info.
 
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It's always difficult playing 3 bet pots out of position when you miss the board.

You did flop a backdoor flush and straight draw, along with your 2 overs, so I think c betting that flop would be good. Check/calling can really leave you in a nebulous no man's land.
 
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gustav197poker

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The range you assign for V is reasonable. I would make some small modifications and add some combos with T and it would be approximately a structure like this: JJ, 99-77, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, Q8s, 97s+, 87s, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KcJc, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc9c, Td9d, Th9h, Tc9c, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7c6c, 6d5d, 6c5c, AhTc, AcTh, KhQc, KcQh, KhJc, KcJh, QhJc, QcJh.
On the river we don't necessarily have to bet. We could let villain bluff with some combos like AQ; AJ and QJ, as values in the V range have little fold equity for this particular texture.
Greetings.
 
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gustav197poker

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I made a mistake, the sample seems more representative, so the villain continues with 12% of his range for this 3-bet pot. This now has a broader form approximated to:
JJ, 99-77, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, 6d6h, 6d6c, 6h6c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, Q9s-Q8s, J8s-J7s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KcJc, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ah9h, Ac9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc9c, Td9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Ah8h, Ac8c, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc8c, Ah7h, As7s, Ac7c, Kh7h, Kc7c, Ah6h, Ac6c, Kd6d, Kh6h, Kc6c, Ah5h, Ac5c, Ah4h, Ac4c, QJo, JTo, T9o, AhJc, AcJh, AhTc, AcTh, KhJc, KcJh, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KcTs
 
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gustav197poker

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I made a mistake, the sample seems more representative, so the villain continues with 12% of his range for this 3-bet pot. This now has a broader form approximated to:
JJ, 99-77, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, 6d6h, 6d6c, 6h6c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, Q9s-Q8s, J8s-J7s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KcJc, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ah9h, Ac9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc9c, Td9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Ah8h, Ac8c, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc8c, Ah7h, As7s, Ac7c, Kh7h, Kc7c, Ah6h, Ac6c, Kd6d, Kh6h, Kc6c, Ah5h, Ac5c, Ah4h, Ac4c, QJo, JTo, T9o, AhJc, AcJh, AhTc, AcTh, KhJc, KcJh, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KcTs




I'm still thinking of calling the bluffs OTR. As his range is wider, it is very likely that UTG wanted to knock us down on the flop with a bluff hand (since we did not make a continuation bet, our range looks weak. Enough to knock us down with a small donk bet)
If we block the river with a bet like John says, we will probably beat several weak bluffs of V. But in my opinion, the idea of keeping all the bluffs in RV allows us to maximize the strength of our bluff catcher. We must consider that it is unlikely to withdraw the formed values of UTG, whereas if the villain is a passive player he will discard all his dominated bluffs.
 
bgomez89

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You don't have any flush draws like AsQs, AsJs, etc... any reason why? And villian being IP you probably need to add in 56s, 67s, JJ he might check the turn sometimes.

The river you have some SD value. How often can you get fold out 88/99 really, and what size are you comfortable calling on the river vs. his bluffs. This is one of those spots it's best to value block 45-55% of the pot so you don't get bluffed off the better hand. You might be able to bet even slightly less, just depends how aggressive they are. You aren't going to fold JJ 88/99 often enough to justify a large river bet imho, so you're better off either checking and planning to call X size bet or betting (which I think is the better play) w/o better info.
ty for the analysis. I feel like if villain bets his FDs on the flop then he's probably still betting them on the turn but maybe that's a mistake on my part

It's always difficult playing 3 bet pots out of position when you miss the board.

You did flop a backdoor flush and straight draw, along with your 2 overs, so I think c betting that flop would be good. Check/calling can really leave you in a nebulous no man's land.
The problem with cbetting here is that I doubt any pairs are going to fold and there are probably a good amount of those in his range. I think I'm ahead of his range on the flop and his betting range on the flop when I check to him so I don't really want to turn AK into a bluff because if he calls and I miss the turn then I'll either have to continue bluffing into a hand that likely will continue or just check/fold.

I made a mistake, the sample seems more representative, so the villain continues with 12% of his range for this 3-bet pot. This now has a broader form approximated to:
JJ, 99-77, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, 6d6h, 6d6c, 6h6c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, Q9s-Q8s, J8s-J7s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KcJc, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ah9h, Ac9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc9c, Td9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Ah8h, Ac8c, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc8c, Ah7h, As7s, Ac7c, Kh7h, Kc7c, Ah6h, Ac6c, Kd6d, Kh6h, Kc6c, Ah5h, Ac5c, Ah4h, Ac4c, QJo, JTo, T9o, AhJc, AcJh, AhTc, AcTh, KhJc, KcJh, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KcTs
I feel like this range is way too wide by the time we get to the river. I think a lot of these don't show up in range because I think:

- He continues betting his Tx's if he was willing to bet those on the flop
- He's likely betting all sets because of the board texture
- Some of the lower Kxs you gave me seem a bit too loose for calling a 3bet

thanks for the analysis though, I think probably a c/c here like you said is probably best
 
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gustav197poker

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ty for the analysis. I feel like if villain bets his FDs on the flop then he's probably still betting them on the turn but maybe that's a mistake on my part


The problem with cbetting here is that I doubt any pairs are going to fold and there are probably a good amount of those in his range. I think I'm ahead of his range on the flop and his betting range on the flop when I check to him so I don't really want to turn AK into a bluff because if he calls and I miss the turn then I'll either have to continue bluffing into a hand that likely will continue or just check/fold.


I feel like this range is way too wide by the time we get to the river. I think a lot of these don't show up in range because I think:

- He continues betting his Tx's if he was willing to bet those on the flop
- He's likely betting all sets because of the board texture
- Some of the lower Kxs you gave me seem a bit too loose for calling a 3bet

thanks for the analysis though, I think probably a c/c here like you said is probably best




Possibly all sets bet, in this texture. But when the 3bettor checks the flop, the H rank becomes more vulnerable after his call. Against that perceived range, a villain can take advantage of position and check turn to induce a trap in the river. The check of turn suggests that V doesn't have a very strong range either, which leaves an opportunity for the hero to try to get him out of the OTR pot. The only condition is that villain must defend 100% of the rivers in order for his strategy to be profitable. The same logic can be applied to some suitable connectors that hit the hero's range a lot.
You're right, certain Kxs are unlikely to be found at 25NL, especially when we have the K of spades.
 
Alex_Ogienko

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I don't see the point in betting on the river. We'll get better hands, and against worse hands we have showdown value. I will fold on his river bet, there are too many pocket pairs in his range.
 
John A

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ty for the analysis. I feel like if villain bets his FDs on the flop then he's probably still betting them on the turn but maybe that's a mistake on my part

Well for starters you don't want to think in absolutes in poker, and secondly if they had a high card draw they could very well check behind on the turn since they have some SD value + the pot size will commit them unless they bet really small.

I feel like this range is way too wide by the time we get to the river. I think a lot of these don't show up in range because I think:

- He continues betting his Tx's if he was willing to bet those on the flop
I think you're responding to someone else because I didn't say any of these things, but I'll chime in any way since you quoted my post.

No, not true at all. In a 3-bet pot people will pot control. I think you have at least 2 poker reasoning errors happening in this hand imho.

- He's likely betting all sets because of the board texture
- Some of the lower Kxs you gave me seem a bit too loose for calling a 3bet

thanks for the analysis though, I think probably a c/c here like you said is probably best
I didn't say anything about sets or Ks, and the only set he should have here is TT.
 
bgomez89

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Well for starters you don't want to think in absolutes in poker, and secondly if they had a high card draw they could very well check behind on the turn since they have some SD value + the pot size will commit them unless they bet really small.

I think you're responding to someone else because I didn't say any of these things, but I'll chime in any way since you quoted my post.

No, not true at all. In a 3-bet pot people will pot control. I think you have at least 2 poker reasoning errors happening in this hand imho.

I didn't say anything about sets or Ks, and the only set he should have here is TT.

Those comments were to gustav btw
 
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