$25 NLHE 6-max: AA four card straight, fire a 3rd shot?

[bgomez89]

ull Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

CO: $18.21
BTN: $28.37
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $25.95
MP: $34.82

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A:spade: A:diamond:
Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 5:heart: T:spade: A:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) Q:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, MP calls $2.75

River: ($9.85) K:club: (2 players)
Hero ??

villain is a 69/30/72 over 33 hands. Turn bet probably shouldve been atleast 3.25 but whatever. Do I fire a 3rd barrel here?

 

[baudib1]

flip a coin between b/f $4 or check-calling.

 

[No Brainer]

Bet bigger on the flop and turn, shove river. These droolers will make such big calling mistakes we should be getting as much value from them with our good hands as possible. I like to bet just under pot usually, say 1.65 on the flop then 4.90 on the turn.

As played I would lean towards bet/folding, he has a huge amount of two pair type hands here which he will call a bet with but won't shove with if he is scared of the straight.

 

[c9h13no3]

Given our bet-sizing, we MUST get a raise in on a street to get all in. The turn seems like the best option to me.

If we check/raise the turn, we can expect villain to bet it since:

1) Villain's AFq is 72%. Crazy high.
2) The Q improves a lot of the hands he's peeling the flop with (AQ, QT, KQ, QJ, KJ, QhXh). Also, many of these hands call a turn raise.

The river decision sucks.

Hand 0: 45.2% { AdAs }
Hand 1: 54.8% { AJs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Not quite enough equity to v-bet if he never has a set, and only calls with two pair. But there's not much air in his range, and he rarely bets two pair on his own.

So really, like Baudib implies, its really close. I think if I had to pick, I'd value bet, since I'd put more faith in him calling loosely rather than turning bottom two pair into a bluff. By checking, I think we just get value towned by mostly straights.

Oh, and the math says check/fold, but we don't fold sets, amirite?

 

[baudib1]

he has all flush draws in his range though and he can bruff those.

 

[KardKlub]

This is where I suffer most but recently after a bit of reading etc this is when you must bet. If you don't rep this and he bets full pot what then?.

If you bet half to to thirds he's calling with the split ( but its not). Well you'd like to think he wouldn't raise you. And he's calling any two pair too.

Another option would be to check raise all in. He can only call with a j and with pot size being low a cr would give you fe against all other hands. But the situation has to br right.

 

[baudib1]

I think you c/c almost anything short of a shove vs. this guy, and maybe that, too. I just think he gets to the river with so much air because of his preflop tendencies. and yeah i think someone this aggressive turns 2 pair into a bluff recognizing it's a scary board, and will do so with his 84hh, too.

betting is ok, but b/f kinda sucks bawls. even though b/f is generally the nuts.

 

[k1ngd0nk]

I agree with c/c . I think it's the best line here.

 

[WVHillbilly]

I like overbetting the turn here a lot. He's got tons of pairs+draws that he's just not folding and we really want to get lots of $$s in while he's still drawing. We have ~$24 before we bet the turn so I like at least $10, maybe $12. I really don't think he folds anything for $12 that he calls $4 with AND we're going to get looked up more often on the river becasue the pot will be so much bigger.