200NL FR: TT overpair facing river c/r

blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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very little reads. i'm like 18/14/4, he's like 18/9/1.5 over a negligible sample

thoughts on the hand in general? ranges? and the river?

fulltiltpoker Game #5425420010: Table Horizon Lake - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:24:06 ET - 2008/02/27
Seat 1: mbagraduate ($0), is sitting out
Seat 2: smalltowngirly ($220.75)
Seat 3: DrumBeats ($170.15)
Seat 4: VT Hokie Poker ($209.30)
Seat 5: McAllin ($207.55)
Seat 6: yadad ($163.50)
Seat 7: combuboom ($264.15)
Seat 8: scabu ($281.10)
Seat 9: mvv01 ($267.40)
smalltowngirly posts the small blind of $1
DrumBeats posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Td Th]
VT Hokie Poker folds
McAllin folds
yadad folds
combuboom raises to $7
scabu folds
mvv01 folds
smalltowngirly folds
DrumBeats calls $5
*** FLOP *** [9d 4s 3s]
DrumBeats checks
combuboom bets $12
DrumBeats calls $12
*** TURN *** [9d 4s 3s] [3c]
DrumBeats checks
combuboom bets $28
DrumBeats calls $28
*** RIVER *** [9d 4s 3s 3c] [2h]
DrumBeats checks
combuboom bets $60
DrumBeats has 15 seconds left to act
DrumBeats raises to $123.15, and is all in
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
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Total posts
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He's calling out of the big blind, so his range is at least a bit larger.

The best range for villain that I can come up with is:

-Broken draws
-44, 99, slowplayed JJ+
-A5, 56
-Maybe a hand like 54s that's turning their hand into a bluff.

Just because 44, 99, straights, and slowplayed monsters are the only hands I can think of that beat us and take this line, I'd be tempted to call. You're getting pretty incredible pot odds (4.4:1), and I think villain will show up with a broken draw/badly played air enough times here to make up for the times when we run into a big hand. However, I expect to see our opponent turn over a monster at least 70% of the time.

Btw, why did you bet the river? 2 of the likely straight draws hit this river, and we're just donating to full houses & slow played bigger pairs. I think this is a pretty standard check behind on the river.

/me votes for call, as played.
 
Last edited:
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
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I think we have to fold this.

He's almost never doing this as a bluff because a) he doesn't have any FE on the river and b) he can't expect three barrels from someone as tight as you without some fantastical action that you would have already mentioned, and so can't expect to ch-r the river very often with an overfull or quads or whatever.

Really no hands realistically take this line that we have beat unless he's on a very rare uber-brain fart with A9 or something.

As for the pre-river action, I like betting the turn a little more and checking the river for pot control. I just don't see 88/A9 calling us, and obviously we don't want to put in bad money against 56/99/44/33/busted draws.

Interesting hand, but I just can't see us being ahead here.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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i bet river to valuetown a 9 and because it's hard to expect him to be going for c/r there, esp with those stacks. i figured he'd bet out his better hands at that point most of the time
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I don't know if we see a 9 very often here though...does he really call 3 barrels with it?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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it's likely. the flush draw missed + people don't like to fold top pair

i don't disagree that it's pretty thin (fwiw i think a looot of cc players don't value bet thin enough), but i felt like it was +EV
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Well I know I certainly don't...at one point I got way too concerned with pot control but am looking at valuetowning more.

I dunno, I prob bet this against a fish, but a tag player like this I'm checking most/all of the time.

Ya...I think if he's calling two streets then he's way more likely to call 3 (with a 9), but it just feels like too much.

I'm just going back and forth here...either way it's thin if you're betting the river but there is some value in it. Anyways as played it should be a fold, no? He can't possibly ch-r the river without JJ or better...
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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before i played 6max i never would have v-bet here. maybe it's inappropriate for FR, but i don't really see how it can be that bad. we can be kind of results-oriented and say "well, look, he does check-raise here", but in my experiences they almost always bet out their 3s and full houses and straights here, with how the hand played out. maybe it's just me but i get called down by weird stuff all the time

basically becomes the incredible pot odds vs the fact that i'm very probably beat. hard to say how probably. i need to be good 19% of the time for it to be a profitable call. so i guess the question is can he have a desperate busted flush draw/retarded 9/something else often enough?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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in case anyone is interested in the bizarre results, i made a crying pot odds call, he shows Q9s and my hand is good
 
A

alan1983

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If you were deeper then him checkraising the river with a monster makes much more sense. Although if i were you id call thinking im beat too.

fwiw i just played a hand exactly like villain, called down with qj on jack high flop, by the timer we hit river had to call a 50$ and had 50 behind, so just figured "screw it", if i think im good enough to call then 50 more wont make a difference and shoved. I lost too :D

So maybe thats what went through his mind as well
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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well i do think this was kind of a freak occurence and doesn't greatly clarify the argument either way. his hand really doesn't make much of any sense here to me. i've usually either got an overpair to the board that he can't expect me to fold, or i 3barreled overcards. either way, his raise doesn't accomplish anything good. he'd have to think i'm 3barreling like 66-88 or J9-98 and then calling with it, which is a hell of a lot to hope for
 
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