$200NL: Fold this set!?!

[blankoblanco]

Stacks O_Greedy is pretty aggro pre-flop, though usually open raising as opposed to punishing limpers. Not too out of line postflop

No reads on villain or other opponent, but neither has been crazy or out of line

I checked with intentions to raise and rep some kind of draw. After this big bet into 3 players, raise, and another player to act behind me, is anyone considering folding bottom set here?

Full Tilt Poker Game #3397333608: Table Bonanza (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:32:49 ET - 2007/08/29
Seat 1: Xiadow ($245.90)
Seat 2: combuboom ($200)
Seat 3: Deadly007 ($197)
Seat 4: ARISBABA ($117.15)
Seat 5: Stacks O_Greedy ($285.55)
Seat 6: ImNotRacist ($230.05)
combuboom posts the small blind of $1
Deadly007 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [9d 9s]
ARISBABA has 15 seconds left to act
ARISBABA calls $2
Stacks O_Greedy raises to $9
ImNotRacist has 15 seconds left to act
ImNotRacist folds
Xiadow calls $9
combuboom calls $8
Deadly007 folds
ARISBABA calls $7
*** FLOP *** [Qc Ts 9c]
combuboom checks
ARISBABA checks
Stacks O_Greedy bets $36
Xiadow raises to $90
combuboom

 

[Bombjack]

Well, Xiadow shouldn't be cold-calling with KJ (although perhaps if it's suited), J8, or QQ. If he has KJ, you have redraws. You're only really worried about TT.

Of course Stacks O_Greedy could have flopped top set or a straight, but he probably didn't.

This board hits combo-draws a-plenty, so I think there's only one move for you here, ARRRRRRR-INNNNNN.

 

[TheJace]

I'd go all-in, set over set on the flop happens only about 1 in 100 times (quoting from Phil Gordon) so you gotta do it I'd say.

 

[alan1983]

Its a worrying flop and action but its also full of draws and pairs + draws and 2 pairs etc....

So id probably just push here.

 

[strongbower]

Id never fold a set after the flop unless its for huge money, $200. worth a push, he is prob sitting on top pair with a high kicker or at worce 2 pair, you cant put him on a set

 

[ChuckTs]

I know I can't fold here, even if it is the right play. I hate going into this readless; we could be up against anything.

KQ/AQ, overpair, TT, QQ, KJ, FD, combo draw, some monkeys will even play QJ like this with the pair + straight draw.

Like I said, I can't fold this.

 

[joeeagles]

What a hand!!

I'm terrible at folding sets, even bottom set. For me to do so the evidence has to be really overwhelming. Do we have it here? You can't exclude the chance one of the villains has a better set, and on a draw heavy board like this they have to play it fast. Also, on a 6-handed table I wouldn't be surprised someone actually has KJ. But the probability of them having something different than a bigger set or KJ is higher.

The problem is the way the betting went following your flop check, which won't allow you to make a more educated decision on a subsequent street. In other words, the aggressive flop betting has turned this hand into a game of chance rather than skill. The ideal on such a board would be to see the turn and possibly another round of betting before making a decision for all your chips but it doesn't appear that is possible anymore. This could turn out to be a good thing. Or not. I know I can't fold here, which is also my biggest weakness in cash games and the reason I don't play many of them.

This is what I'm wondering. Does anyone consider flat calling to get Stacks O_Greedy involved, and then shove the turn (unless its a disaster card like Kc or Jc)? Or everyone views this as a fold or shove decision? The reasons for a flat call are:

1) we can get the extra $54 from Stacks O_Greedy

2) we will rarely take the pot down with a shove, cause Xiadow is not folding at this point whether he has a made hand or a draw (he'll be getting 3.65 to 1 on his draw if he has one)

3) we can escape if the turn brings a bad card that almost certainly makes a better hand than ours, saving us $100


One of the problems with the flat call and having the other villain call is that we won't be able to give bad odds to drawing hands on the turn. Even knowing that, is it really that terrible to flat call, do we have to view this as a shove or fold? Explain why, besides our inability to give bad drawing odds on the turn, because the reality is we can't deny them on the flop either, at least to Xiadow.

 

[KMC1828]

no way im folding this. sorry. hidden set for me is gold. very rare is it to have set over set action.

i have a hard time putting either of them on KJ, so worst case scenario it is set over set, but it would be a rare occurance and i would have to pay him off.

 

[blankoblanco]

What might Xiadow have, though? And let me first say, I would not be surprised for Xiadow to have either QQ or KJ... smoothcalling with QQ to "trap" the aggro PF player or calling with KJ because the possibility of being ahead of the aggro player's range

I don't have pokerstove so I can't check, but I'm curious how I do against a range of TT, AJc, ATc, JTc, QQ, KJ, AQ, KK, AA (although I really feel like the last three, one pair hands, are fairly unlikely)

tufat, will you never check here? I'll lead out here at times and check at times. I chose to check raise (and planned to make it an oversized raise) repping a draw because I felt it was my only real chance to stack a one pair hand. I was also pretty confident that someone would bet this flop, whereas if I led out, I was not confident enough that I'd get raised

 

[joosebuck]

you have equity, smooth call and hope to bring the 3rd guy along. with any luck he will shove and youll have a 3way with proper redraw odds. only thing is if he has something like T9 and another T comes, he'll have the TTT99 and out FH you. there's also the odds that they're both drawing (fd/qj/etc) and you're far far ahead.

 

[blankoblanco]

One of the problems with the flat call and having the other villain call is that we won't be able to give bad odds to drawing hands on the turn. Even knowing that, is it really that terrible to flat call, do we have to view this as a shove or fold? Explain why, besides our inability to give bad drawing odds on the turn, because the reality is we can't deny them on the flop either, at least to Xiadow.

Best reason not to smoothcall IMO is that we're out of position and his range is big. That makes it really hard for us to play a lot of turns. The turn might come a J when he has ATc and take the huge pot away from us (and/or we lost all the value we woulda got on the flop because he would have put all the money in behind). It could come a K when he has AKc (another hand he'd get it all in on the flop with that we're pretty well ahead of) and we're going to be afraid of him having a J. It could come a club when he has AQo, but we won't know that and will then pretty much have to shut down unless we improve. I think it puts us very much in the dark and often detracts from value we can get on the flop

 

[Lo-Dog]

I'm not folding, but not sure if I go all in or do like joe says. Well I probably go all in but his thoughts have merit.

And you are 58% to win with the range you gave.

Edit: Sorry 58 was against a single opponent here is a split of the range and with giving the same range to both players, not sure if that works out right.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.207% 35.99% 00.21% 332490 1977.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 24.337% 23.50% 00.84% 217071 7750.50 { QQ+, TT, AcJc }
Hand 2: 39.456% 38.62% 00.84% 356730 7750.50 { AcTc, JcTc, AQo, KJo }



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.554% 35.35% 00.21% 1313700 7764.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 32.223% 29.72% 02.51% 1104486 93156.00 { QQ+, TT, AcJc, AcTc, JcTc, AQo, KJo }
Hand 2: 32.223% 29.72% 02.51% 1104486 93156.00 { QQ+, TT, AcJc, AcTc, JcTc, AQo, KJo }

 

[tigertight]

all in scare away those fish's and perhaps mabey win some money

 

[blankoblanco]

I'm glad nobody said to fold it

results: I shoved, Xiadow called and showed QT for top two pair, my hand held. Really weird for him to have called with QT, definitely shows that KJ was in his range, but I think it's clear it should never be a fold. I like shoving more than smoothcalling for reasons I cited in my previous post