200nl - badass line with QQ making river boat?

[vanquish]

villain is a VERY good 16/14/3 over 2400 hands reg, who plays up to 1knl. attempted to steal = 48%, cbet = 60%
hero is 18/15/3, no particular notes

Stacks:
* SB with $209.25
* BB with $304.75
* UTG with $202.40
* MP1 with $198.00
* MP2 with $200.50
* CO with $126.25
* BTN with $572.10

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to SB:Q♣ Q♠
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [$2]
* * 1 players fold.
* * BTN raises $6 to $8
* * Hero calls [$7]
* * 1 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [$6]
* * Total folds this street: 4
* * Potsize: $26
Flop:
* * 5♣ Q♥ 4♦
* * Hero: checks
* * MP2: checks
* * BTN bets [$20]
* * Hero calls [$20]
* * 1 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: $66
Turn:
* * 9♦
* * Hero: checks
* * BTN: checks
* * Potsize: $66
River:
* * 9♣
* * Hero: checks
* * BTN bets [$50]
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero raises $131.25 to $181.25 [ all-in ]

 

[bw07507]

You are my hero. Did you make the move to 200NL fully?

 

[vanquish]

yea

 

[c9h13no3]

Since his attempt to steal is fairly high and you're 7 handed, I don't mind flatting preflop, since his button range is really wide & the range he calls a 3-bet with is pretty small.

What range do you put him on the turn? You think bluffs make up enough of his range to take this passive line?

 

[ChuckTs]

Well getting on to the next level of thinking, if he views you as a decent player, he'll assume you know about his very wide LP range and might put you on a resteal if you 3-bet pf.

By calling you invite MP in as well which sucks, plus it means BTN won't be bluffing as much 3-handed.

As played he can't possibly put you on QQ, but even so what hands can he really call you with at this point?

 

[vanquish]

What range do you put him on the turn? You think bluffs make up enough of his range to take this passive line?

any pair + any draw pretty much

i am not looking for him to bluff necessarily, any bet he makes when checked to that he would not call is good enough to take this line imo, since he might be value betting something like JJ, and if i bet the turn, i'll just blow him off most of his range. i am also c/cing turn with the intention of checking river to let him value bet something like TPTK, or an overpair, and then raising for value and putting him in a tough spot since he will have serious trouble putting me on a set (i'm quite aggro and why would i c/c flop + turn, and then c/r river with a monster?).

 

[blankoblanco]

if you haven't been 3betting him enough, i guess preflop is okay, but i think that suggests you should have been playing him differently before this point. if you think he's that likely to fold to your 3bets then you should have already been 3betting him with a lot of other stuff until he adjusts, and then you just 3bet him with your big hands too. that way you get to actually play big pots with big hands

flop is my preferred line. leading and c/r-ing both look a little too strong with the other guy in the hand. HU i'd c/r sometimes and c/c sometimes, hardly ever leading

once you check turn, checking river is best imo. he'll value bet a Q or 9 himself, likely JJ since your hand looks like a middle pair, and there's a chance he'd even fold JJ-88 stuff if you lead a healthy size (but maybe call a small bet) -- trying to get a call out of those kinds of hands would be close to the only reason for leading river

nh

 

[vanquish]

Well getting on to the next level of thinking, if he views you as a decent player, he'll assume you know about his very wide LP range and might put you on a resteal if you 3-bet pf.

By calling you invite MP in as well which sucks, plus it means BTN won't be bluffing as much 3-handed.

As played he can't possibly put you on QQ, but even so what hands can he really call you with at this point?

yeah and if he puts me on a resteal, he will call preflop (he can obv take it away from me postflop if i'm restealing), and i'll be playing a big pot against a sick player OOP with a hand that has trouble on lots of flops. which sucks. i'm effectively playing QQ for set/overpair equity because i don't want to play big pots OOP.


he can call me with obv any set, AA/KK, maybe AQ (depends what he thinks i'm doing on river), and probably a lot of trips.
basically if he puts me on strictly sets here, he would be a huge nit to fold to a line that a set rarely takes, and is a bluff more often than a more standard aggro line that a set would often take.


let's pretend to be villain: we have something like AA (seams reasonable iyam), we raise preflop blah blah, 3 handed to flop, we c-bet a good flop for us (Q-high + low cards), we check turn for pot control, and bet river for value, and then villain just fking shoves. seriously wtf is he doing shoving there when he knows i'm so tricky and aggro and he thinks i'm bluffing but i have a hand?



can villain really fold a hand he bets 25 BBs on river with?

 

[ChuckTs]

combu, why have I not seen any $100k brags from you yet? your posts are awesome.

Yeah I agree though - as played the turn/riv are good, but you're not getting looked up on the river without villain holding at least a 9 imo. You got full value from his bluffs as played pf, but we can get a lot more from them if we'd been 3-betting light by giving him a chance to 4bet bluff or make a move postflop.

btw wow %48 ATS over 2500 hands, never seen that high before from a reg.

edit: was typing before you posted.

AA/KK doesn't barrel turn? meh, you're probably right, as played they do look you up on the river. I just don't think AA/KK is a huge part of a %48 ATS player's range. I'm not saying his range is 48 obv, but it's still gonna be pretty huge - flop was dry as hell and perfect for a c-bet. I really don't know what the majority of his range will be (Qx,JJ-TT?) but I don't think it's strong enough to call that river CR

 

[c9h13no3]

can villain really fold a hand he bets 25 BBs on river with?

It is a pretty big bet on the river, so its polarized towards bluffs & big hands. This does look a lot like aces or kings. I'm not sure JJ would put out such a large vbet on the riv.

Do you think that bet size on the river is that telling of his hand strength?

 

[vanquish]

You got full value from his bluffs as played pf, but we can get a lot more from them if we'd been 3-betting light by giving him a chance to 4bet bluff or make a move postflop.

it's not like i don't know about 3betting light. the problem is if i crank my 3betting range against him OOP, he's not gonna adjust by 4bet bluffing, he's gonna adjust by calling my 3bets preflop and owning the shit out of me in position. if i were to 3bet QQ here and he called, i'd need to make a bunch of tough decisions postflop, because overcards will come, flops will come tiny monotone, he will float me, and he will bluffraise me a ton, where winning a big pot will be tough unless i pretty much cooler him.

 

[vanquish]

It is a pretty big bet on the river, so its polarized towards bluffs & big hands. This does look a lot like aces or kings. I'm not sure JJ would put out such a large vbet on the riv.

Do you think that bet size on the river is that telling of his hand strength?

does it matter? i have the nuts (basically), so i'm shoving river and just hoping he has the good hands and not the bluffs. (and besides c/r is good because at least i've given him a chance to bluff).

 

[ChuckTs]

I'm not saying you don't know about restealing, just saying I think I like that option better. Though admittedly I got absolutely owned in 3-bet pots my first 60k hand run at 100nl, so I won't disagree with you there.

What about the times we smooth call, let MP in and see Kxx/Axx/AKx/other shitty flops? Villain can easily outplay us that way, plus MP gets a cheap shot at outflopping us. I agree losing a small pot pitching our hand on the worst of flops is a lot better than getting pushed out of a big pot, but I feel like we lose tons of value not 3-betting pf...

 

[c9h13no3]

does it matter? i have the nuts (basically), so i'm shoving river and just hoping he has the good hands and not the bluffs. (and besides c/r is good because at least i've given him a chance to bluff).

Lol, not much. You could've opted for a bit smaller raise. I'm just trying to figure out what you take into account when you take this funky line.

 

[blankoblanco]

combu, why have I not seen any $100k brags from you yet? your posts are awesome.

in due time, my friend, in due time