This is a discussion on $200 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK facing turn min raise on dry board within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Live cash game in manila , ₱50/100 blinds ~ $1/2,
UTG (Hero): ₱13,000
UTG+2 (Villain): ₱7,000, new to be table, buy in relatively short, young asian
I think I'm calling here as well. The board ran out pretty clean. Spades missed, only 9 8 got there. The only hand I think you're losing to is a set here. While definitely possible, villain has enough other Ax and missed draws in his range that i think I'm calling. My gut says he would have flipped over something like A 9 of spades.
I think its a call.
I think the hands he's still here with are AT, AQ, TT, 77. We beat AQ and lose to the others. There's 8 AQ combos he could have, 6 AT, 3 TT, and 3 77. Which means were winning 8/20, or 40% if our range is accurate. With a little over 3:1 pot odds this is a +EV call.
If he's a smidge looser i think we could include 66 in his range which will have us winning 8/23 hands, still at 34% equity, enough for a +EV call. But if he is a smidge looser, then i think we also have to include AJ, A9 and A8, all hands we beat, only improving our EV.
I've excluded KK from his range, he raises those preflop. And i dont think he raises us on the turn with JJ or QQ. If he's still looser however, we run into hands like A7 and A6. If we include these, our equityincreases to 42.5%. Evveeeennnnn if we include A7 and A6 (hands we lose to), and keep JJ and QQ (hands we beat) out of his range, our equity is 25%, which is slightly +EV with a little over 3:1 pot odds.
I don't see how we fold this.
Any information on the player would help out quite a bit, but i think were paying off 77 or 66 here. If he's a bit more loose than what i default to thinking people are, i think were beating his Ax, probably AQ or AJ.
(This is my first post on CardsChat, so if im being a complete moron, please let me know)
re: Poker & $200 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK facing turn min raise on dry board
I would definitely fold on the turn, his range is 2 pair plus... Like you've said, they under bluff in these situations, there aren't many hands they could semi-bluff with, I'm fine with letting my hand go there.