$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live: small set facing a river donk bet

[bgomez89]

Live hand so players are lolbad. Villain in this case seemed like he knew how to play but did his fair share of limping and open limping preflop. He also would straddle every time he was UTG and the BTN and would buy in for $200. I don't remember hands that he's shown down so no real reads other than he can sometimes be aggressive and isn't afraid to talk you into calling his bets.

UTG: ???
UTG+1: ???
MP1: ???
MP2:???
MP3:???
CO(HERO): ~$230
BTN:???
SB:$200ish
BB: ???

Hero is dealt:

Preflop($3)

UTG straddles to $4, 2 folds, MP2 calls $4, MP3 calls $4, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold, UTG checks.

Flop($19[rake keeps blinds]):

SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12, 3 folds

Turn($43):

SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

River($103):

SB bets $78, Hero ???

What's my play here CC? I kind of just want to call because I don't know what he has that he plays like this as most two pairs or sets raise the turn. It's possible he's donking with TP or an 8 as kind of a strong blocker bet but idk.

 

[WVHillbilly]

If you shove over he'll fold everything you beat.

 

[bgomez89]

i don't really think live players fold TP or two pairs

 

[WVHillbilly]

They do it all the time when the board is "scary" facing "big" bets. You're getting calls by bigger sets, 9T, and BD flushes and not much else if you shove.

 

[bgomez89]

I dont really agree with that but what about the rest of the hand? Bet bigger everywhere?

 

[ChuckTs]

For sure bigger everywhere which makes a river shove a lot easier. $16 flop -> $51 pot on turn, make it $46 -> $143 pot on river. We're never not stacking a non-four straight river now.

 

[bgomez89]

As played what do you think?

 

[ChuckTs]

might minraise or something. Never folding obviously. There's definitely more value to be had but I think I agree that shoving is probably a bit thin unless he peels a lot of random Qx that will call a shove.