C
c0rnBr34d
Visionary
Silver Level
Young decent V to my right has some history with Hero but nothing out of line has been shown down and this is our first session together. Maybe 2-3 hours in. One hand of note Hero cold 4B V with AK and double barreled V off of QQ as an overpair. V was visibly frustrated and folded face up. Hero has been active and aggressive but nothing crazy. Hero probably looks like 20/15/5 with AF around 2 but it's Live and people tend to hone in on big hands if they are even paying attention to frequencies.
OTTH: V ISOs to $20 over 3 or 4 limps playing $725 effective. Hero covers and 3B to $65 in position with AhKs (too small here but we are in position with a strong hand so it's a small mistake I think). Only V calls.
Flop ($135): Jh 6x 3h
V checks, Hero c-bets $55. Since we block the nut flush draw Hero isn't as concerned about hearts. V calls fairly quickly.
Turn ($245): Jh 6x 3h Qh
V leads for $105. Seems like an interesting lead. V is always strong here but given previous hours of play V has not been calling 3B OOP light especially against a deeper stack. Hero has Ah, and the board has Qh and Jh so the only two flush combos V should have are KThh and T9hh and I don't think they are calling at 100% frequency against a larger stack OOP vs a 3B range. For our sizing pre V can absolutely have all the sets and QJs but for this price we can draw to the nut flush and broadway in position and I think we have implied odds. I don't think we can ever fold here and raising makes little sense even when we have the flush already. Hero calls.
River ($455): Jh 6x 3h Qh Tc
V bets $175. Hero? V has $325 behind and would absolutely play sets like this. I don't think we are ever chopping. As mentioned I think we can only find 2 or 3 flush combos that V can have. I really really want to jam here against a frustrated V who is more likely to have top 2 or a set than a flush and may call it off light. Do we have to just flat here or can we jam and just double him up if he somehow has a flush? I know it doesn't make sense since we are expecting overcalls rather than over folds but if Vs flush combo doesn't have the Kh they could also make the huge mistake of folding a flush putting Hero on AKhh. I guess I should do an EV calc on if he calls with all of his sets and all of his QJs and compare that to what we lose when he has 3 flush combos? I'll do that in the mean time and post it below.
Sorry, title typo. I meant V was OOP while it reads like Hero is OOP.
Thoughts?
OTTH: V ISOs to $20 over 3 or 4 limps playing $725 effective. Hero covers and 3B to $65 in position with AhKs (too small here but we are in position with a strong hand so it's a small mistake I think). Only V calls.
Flop ($135): Jh 6x 3h
V checks, Hero c-bets $55. Since we block the nut flush draw Hero isn't as concerned about hearts. V calls fairly quickly.
Turn ($245): Jh 6x 3h Qh
V leads for $105. Seems like an interesting lead. V is always strong here but given previous hours of play V has not been calling 3B OOP light especially against a deeper stack. Hero has Ah, and the board has Qh and Jh so the only two flush combos V should have are KThh and T9hh and I don't think they are calling at 100% frequency against a larger stack OOP vs a 3B range. For our sizing pre V can absolutely have all the sets and QJs but for this price we can draw to the nut flush and broadway in position and I think we have implied odds. I don't think we can ever fold here and raising makes little sense even when we have the flush already. Hero calls.
River ($455): Jh 6x 3h Qh Tc
V bets $175. Hero? V has $325 behind and would absolutely play sets like this. I don't think we are ever chopping. As mentioned I think we can only find 2 or 3 flush combos that V can have. I really really want to jam here against a frustrated V who is more likely to have top 2 or a set than a flush and may call it off light. Do we have to just flat here or can we jam and just double him up if he somehow has a flush? I know it doesn't make sense since we are expecting overcalls rather than over folds but if Vs flush combo doesn't have the Kh they could also make the huge mistake of folding a flush putting Hero on AKhh. I guess I should do an EV calc on if he calls with all of his sets and all of his QJs and compare that to what we lose when he has 3 flush combos? I'll do that in the mean time and post it below.
Sorry, title typo. I meant V was OOP while it reads like Hero is OOP.
Thoughts?
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