This is a discussion on $200 NLHE Full Ring: Live 1/3 - 3B pot OOP vs frustrated V. Raise river? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Young decent V to my right has some history with Hero but nothing out of line has been shown down and this is our first
$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live 1/3 - 3B pot OOP vs frustrated V. Raise river?
Young decent V to my right has some history with Hero but nothing out of line has been shown down and this is our first session together. Maybe 2-3 hours in. One hand of note Hero cold 4B V with AK and double barreled V off of QQ as an overpair. V was visibly frustrated and folded face up. Hero has been active and aggressive but nothing crazy. Hero probably looks like 20/15/5 with AF around 2 but it's Live and people tend to hone in on big hands if they are even paying attention to frequencies.
OTTH: V ISOs to $20 over 3 or 4 limps playing $725 effective. Hero covers and 3B to $65 in position with AhKs (too small here but we are in position with a strong hand so it's a small mistake I think). Only V calls.
Flop ($135): Jh 6x 3h
V checks, Hero c-bets $55. Since we block the nut flush draw Hero isn't as concerned about hearts. V calls fairly quickly.
Turn ($245): Jh 6x 3h Qh
V leads for $105. Seems like an interesting lead. V is always strong here but given previous hours of play V has not been calling 3B OOP light especially against a deeper stack. Hero has Ah, and the board has Qh and Jh so the only two flush combos V should have are KThh and T9hh and I don't think they are calling at 100% frequency against a larger stack OOP vs a 3B range. For our sizing pre V can absolutely have all the sets and QJs but for this price we can draw to the nut flush and broadway in position and I think we have implied odds. I don't think we can ever fold here and raising makes little sense even when we have the flush already. Hero calls.
River ($455): Jh 6x 3h Qh Tc
V bets $175. Hero? V has $325 behind and would absolutely play sets like this. I don't think we are ever chopping. As mentioned I think we can only find 2 or 3 flush combos that V can have. I really really want to jam here against a frustrated V who is more likely to have top 2 or a set than a flush and may call it off light. Do we have to just flat here or can we jam and just double him up if he somehow has a flush? I know it doesn't make sense since we are expecting overcalls rather than over folds but if Vs flush combo doesn't have the Kh they could also make the huge mistake of folding a flush putting Hero on AKhh. I guess I should do an EV calc on if he calls with all of his sets and all of his QJs and compare that to what we lose when he has 3 flush combos? I'll do that in the mean time and post it below.
Sorry, title typo. I meant V was OOP while it reads like Hero is OOP.
Ok EV wise it seems kind of trivial. If V is really calling with all his sets and QJs that's 15 combos and if we give him 3 flush combos we win 15/18 times and we want to get as much money into the pot as possible to maximize EV. The more flush combos we give V and the less continuing combos we allow him to call with will decrease the EV until we break even with regard to the number of combos we can beat and still be called by and the number of combos of flushes he can have. So in this case even if we say he's only calling with JJ and QQ then as long as he doesn't have 6 combos of flushes we can rip it and pray to try and get the max?
When V slows down on the river, he is not representing strong holdings and is more often including weak hands that he wants to protect, such as KJo e.g. Maybe with the Kh the V was betting on the turn, but now it's a missed draw. However, given the size OTR chooses, possibly V is hoping to block a hand like AK from your range.
It seems that V should give up when you raise OTR, because in the best case: which bluffs of yours is he winning? It could go ahead of AA, if V has 2 pairs like QJ. But it gives the impression that this player intends to eliminate all those hands, as he expects you to 3-bet preflop not only with the premium hands, but also with a decent range like: AQs +.
In the case that V has a set, you may get a higher + EV. But it's really hard to think of a frustrated person playing a strong hand so passively, at least on the flop. On the turn It might make more sense. However, there is a real chance of being defeated by over sets.
In general I think that if V is frustrated regardless of how big OTR you raise, he will most of the time give up on a texture and sequence like this and will only call with the top of his range, which should be second nut flush.