$200 NLHE Full Ring: Fold or call river

swannymojo

swannymojo

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Here's an interesting hand some friends and I disagree on whether it's a call or fold on the river.

123 game at matrix San Jose .
I'm dealt kk in the bb my first hand at the table. A SUPER tight nitty player with 120 effective bets 16 utg. Mp1 raises to 50 with 300 behind. Field folds. I call with 250 behind after I flat.

I flat here knowing the player pool, aware that mp1 who 3bet the initial short stacked opener knows how tight utg is. The 3 bet to 50 is asking utg to go all in and screams strength to me. Right now I put him on a range of AK aa qq or jj...I block kk) Those are the only hands I could see him 3 bet out of position against a nitty shortstack.

Flop comes q 10 5 two hearts. I check. Villian bets 60. I call. Turn is 2 of hearts. I check Villian checks behind. River pairs the board with another 5. I check Villian bets 110. I call. Villian turns over aa.

After thinking through the hand I think it's a super close (player dependent) fold on the river given the action preflop. But it's close. Curious to hear yalls thoughts on this one.
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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It's a spot i probably fold pre tbh, mp1 actually has position on utg and in a 9 handed game i'm already thinking KK+ to 3bet this spot. And it's very possible MP1 is only ever 3betting AA here Vs this villain.They very likely flat JJ-QQ AK possibly even KK in this particular spot and they don't have any bluffs.It feels super nitty ourselves of'course but given all the info and the positions it might be correct.I wish you hand't posted the result of the hand though.
 
Hujiko

Hujiko

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Most people don't three BET UTG players lightly and certainly not if UTG is super nitty. I would put him on a way better range then the UTG player so that makes that AA, KK and perhaps AK come in mind to 3 Bet the UTG player with. You elect to call and the MP1 player begs the UTG to go all-in. Now it is more likely that the main villain has AA as that is the only hand he should be comfortable with after you called in the BB as your call also screams strength.

6x AA combo and 8x AK combos but we are not sure he would three bet them all the time against a nitty UTG raiser so hes more likely to have AA.


Flop comes QT5 with two hearts and MP1 bets out. Given the preflop action and the tell you saw now it is time to trust your pre-flop feeling in this marginal situation and fold.

As played I would normally call the river because of the turn check.
 
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PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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Just on your postflop play as played for me it would be a fold before the river on this board so the most likely street to fold once you call pre is on the turn.This is because we are never expecting villain to now double/tripple barrel bluff us with AK given all the info we have going on.And the only other hand we were ahead of QQ now beats us with a set.And it's extremely debatable whether or not AK even cbets in this spot on the flop once we overcall the 3bet.That's if it's in his range to begin with.
 
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