$200 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped bottom boat facing river jam

[Gildog89]

Live $1/$2. Villain is an active reg who plays pretty tight from early positions. Effective stacks are $475. Villain is UTG and I am on the button.

Blinds Post
Villain bets $15
folds
Hero 3d 3c calls $15
blind fold
Pot is $33

Flop 3s 4s 4d

Villain bets $20
Hero raises $65
Villain hmms and calls $45
Pot is $163

Turn 3s 4s 4d 9c

Villain checks
Hero bets $85
Villain calls $85
Pot is $333

River 3s 4s 4d 9c Qd

Villain jams for $ $310
Hero?

I knew V had an over pair, and he definitely tends to call down with big pairs when he should know he's beat. Overall thoughts on the hand?

 

[maksonios]

I think villain bluffed or maximum had 9Q and hero should have called that bet.

 

[MungBeans]

I could see him having QQ. I'm a little skeptical that he checked the turn with an overpair on the turn but it's not unreasonable after your flop raise.

He could have KK or AA.


I could also see him having AQ or KQ and just be putting you on nothing (your hand isn't obvious).

If you include all these hand then your equity is 85%. You're definitely getting the odds to call. Even if you leave out AQ and KQ you're getting the odds to call.

What do you think of the hand? Did you end up calling?

 

[mrgupta]

I like how you played the hand (especially the flop raise, given the fact you guys are deeper), I'd maybe go slightly bigger OTT, but that's just me.

I don't think I can fold the river, sure the villain could have queens or nines, but you gotta call it anyway... On occasion, he might show up with KK, AA or even AsQs, KsQs. 100bb it's a no brainer call, it gets slightly tougher being this deep, but I call anyway.

 

[gustav197poker]

If the villain plays tight from the first positions, we must include a set of queens in his rank, and since his hand does not block these streets, he would assign a maximum of 6% probability that this will happen. (applying the 2% rule * 3 possible queens)
In addition, any high hand pair that the villain can bring, would give you as the winner.
There is an unlikely possibility that the villain has achieved a set of 9 on the turn (he would assign this a maximum probability of 6% = three 9 * 2%)
In the river, the villain could not form ladder or color, therefore, I believe that in this instance, his rank is composed of many combos of lanterns. (I would say 85% -90% bluff combos)
If the villain bets so big, I would double his bet to 2.5 times to try to induce his bluffs.
Greeting!

 

[Gildog89]

So I reluctantly folded (hated doing it). Thought process was that this specific villain would check call AA or KK and is only jamming QQ or 44.. I think he thought I couldn't fold my hand. It felt too much like he made Q's full.

 

[quant1986]

So I reluctantly folded (hated doing it). Thought process was that this specific villain would check call AA or KK and is only jamming QQ or 44.. I think he thought I couldn't fold my hand. It felt too much like he made Q's full.

I think 33 or 43 is top of your river range given your line and you cannot fold if villain is capable of bluffing with AsXs, which is probably not typical for ABC tight reg at 1/2.

 

[Gildog89]

I think 33 or 43 is top of your river range given your line and you cannot fold if villain is capable of bluffing with AsXs, which is probably not typical for ABC tight reg at 1/2.

I guess he could jam AQ here if he thought I just had a 3 and was betting the low cards flopped, but any 4 still has him crushed in that scenario. I think he is a smart enough player to know that a 2 pair hand is no good here, and I don't think he thinks I am capable of folding 33 , 34 or 4x here.

Is the rest of my line ok here? I have to raise that flop OOP here to get value imo.

When I folded, I looked at my cards and showed one of the 3's hoping he would table his cards. He said, "just one of em?" and flipped a Q off the top without looking at his cards. Pretty sure he had it.

 

[fundiver199]

I hate folding full houses, but this is actually a spot, where I think, you can do it and be right about it a lot of the time. Usually this is going to be exactly Q´s full, because that is really the only hand, it makes for him to play this way. Only some crazy lunatic 10 bears in would think, he can jam a worse hand for value, and there are no natural candidates for bluffing.

Sure he can have some missed flushdraws, but from UTG these are hands like AK, AQ, AJ and KQ, and they all have showdown value, so it makes no sense to bluff. Your range should be very polarized here between full houses and missed draws, so AK, AJ can check and sometimes win against a worse busted draw, which decide to give up.

 

[TonyTwoCheeks]

Did he show you the ?

 

[Gildog89]

Did he show you the ?

No. Queen was red. No flush draw.

 

[eetenor]

I guess he could jam AQ here if he thought I just had a 3 and was betting the low cards flopped, but any 4 still has him crushed in that scenario. I think he is a smart enough player to know that a 2 pair hand is no good here, and I don't think he thinks I am capable of folding 33 , 34 or 4x here.

Is the rest of my line ok here? I have to raise that flop OOP here to get value imo.

When I folded, I looked at my cards and showed one of the 3's hoping he would table his cards. He said, "just one of em?" and flipped a Q off the top without looking at his cards. Pretty sure he had it.

Thanks for posting.

We have to break down our feel play here. Why do we feel he has it?

Why do we think he would jam QQ and expect to get called?
Why does he not think we have 1010 99 88? Why does he expect us to be raising 33 or a 4 only?

There was a possible flush draw on the flop and he could have hit that Q as part of it. Did you see him over value any hands prior to this? He might think AQs was the nuts and act like it was.

Did he take the lead on other rivered hands flushes etc?

When we folded and showed the 3 was he not angry or disappointed you folded? Would a guy not be who had QQ?
This helps in later hands.

What was your image? Were you the most aggressive player on the table? What were the most recent hands you had to showdown and how do you think that made you look to him?

Hope this helps

 

[TonyTwoCheeks]

This is where Doug Polk argues about making the right play versus the correct play. But I think you saved money here with the right play.