$200 NLHE Full Ring: flop top 2 play for stacks on turn?

Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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UTG limps $2 off $180

UTG+1 folds

Hero MP1 has $400 raises to $10 with :qc4::9c4:

CO flats off a stack of $650

BB calls off a stack of $250

limper folds.

Pot contains $48 3 players

flop :qh4::9s4::4h4:

I bet $30

CO calls

BB folds


pot contains $108 turn card is :10s4:

I bet $70 and CO raises to $150.

our move? Do we flat? do we jam it in? I can't imagine folding here...
 
PaxMundi

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Does villain really raise AQ KQ 9T type hands here for value? If were going with the hand i think i prefer jamming over flatting because of the wet nature of the board texture. There are just so many rivers that kill the action and that we wont like. Is this live though ? i dont play live and from what i understand this would be a much easier stack off live than online.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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Yes this is live
 
PaxMundi

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After looking again i actually prefer just flatting as villain might raise AQ perhaps KQs to control the river action and if we shove they have a relatively easy fold with those hands.Vs 99,44,AQs,KJs,QTs,T9s,AQo we have around 48% equity but if villain can have KJo here our equity takes a nose dive to around 33% .If we account for some draws in villains range our actual equity is likely around 40% so somewhere in the middle.It's possibly not a spot we really want to shove as all worse hands likely fold. But we can call the turn and defend a good amount of rivers Vs a shove.And we also get a check back from villain for showodwn a good amount on the river as well when we flat the turn.So for those reasons flatting is possibly preferable to shoving in this instance.
 
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Gildog89

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This seems like a player dependent spot to me. Any reads on the CO? Would they make that raise with a draw or just with a nutted hands or would they flat with nutted hands an make this move with QsXs? I don't like overvaluing 2 pair here, so without info, I would tend to flat.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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I dont have any reads. I play in this game a lot but have never seen him before and I had only been at the table less than 10 mins.

My instinct was that he believed he was strong....but also my snap judgement (which could be wishful thinking) was that he wasn’t a particularly savvy player and might not know what relative strength looks like on this board
 
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c0rnBr34d

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Pretty gross spot. Is $10 your standard open over 1 limper in MP? For live this seems small to me. In my games you'd be lucky to only be 3 ways raising to 10 over 1 limp. As played people call too wide live so I like the flop sizing with the flush and straight draws on board. The T on the turn looks like mostly a brick as the only hands that caught up should be KJhh, QT, TT after floating a strong flop bet so I like the double barrel and sizing. When we get almost min raised here OTT after raising pre and double barreling around 2/3 pot it feels really strong. You could be right that V is overvaluing a weird one pair hand but I think it's more likely that V has 2 pair + or a pair and a draw or a combo draw here. I hate flatting here with no reads because any good V will be applying pressure OTR and we likely have less than 4 outs to improve and less than a pot sized bet. Realistically we shouldn't be checking monsters out of position on the river hoping V will continue to bet so if we flat we allow him to play perfectly and put ourselves in a ton of really tough spots. Expecting a check back with no reads is a leak in my opinion. Our jam is only 210 more and the pot will be 618ish after our jam. I don't see a scenario where V can min raise / fold here. There are tons of rivers where we will want to x/f though if we flat. Due to his almost min raise sizing this feels to me like value, I prefer a fold. If he wanted to get folds I would expect his sizing to be 200+. The only saving grace could be as you say if V doesn't realize relative hand strength and is overvaluing a weaker hand. Since we have no reads I don't think it's wise to make that assumption 10 mins in. I can understand jamming here but I still prefer a fold until I have some sort of read.
 
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quant1986

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Without read I would fold in live game as low stakes players tend to underbluff on the turn. I guess sometimes there are players raise with T9 to see where they are but there are many more value combos that won't fold if you jam.

Against occasionally solid reg that play draws very aggressively, I would consider jam the turn but definitely not my typical line as I have better hands to defend here
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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thanks guys. I jammed which I think is a poor choice. I do agree $1/2 players tend to underbluff on the turn....on all streets really except maybe flop.

He tank called and had AA which is a weirdly played hand by him but I think this was lucky for me to run into that part of his range and getting it in on turn here will lose money long term.

I think I should perhaps call turn and re-evaluate river sometimes check calling and sometimes check folding.

it's worth noting that in the moment I did think he was capable of raising AQ for value...but I think it will make up a small part of his total range....and sometimes he will just call with it whereas he will probably always raise with his 2pair and better.
 
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