$200 NLHE Full Ring: Call or Fold?

[Herkstwin]

Not sure how this post got a title with "$200 NLHE...". Buy-in minimum is $100, maximum is $300.
In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
__________________

 

[gustav197poker]

Apparently it looks like it's a tight table, so I would have played the same way preflop.
On the flop I'm probably only checking when I'm willing to play the full stack on this board. Otherwise my move would have been a simple continuation bet, looking to get the opponent to fold.
The turn is basically a brick, according to how it was played. Therefore villain is playing without a solid strategy and you represent a bit weak range in this sequence.
There is no money invested in the hand, I don't see you committing yourself too much for this to be a hero call. So if I had played like that, I probably would have folded.
Greetings.

 

[Batarang96]

Don't give him a free card. Bet $10 on the flop; jam if he raises.

Then jam on the turn.

If he folds >16% of the time, then you break even. Your pot odds are 4:10; the Straight/Flush that you'll hit, 24% of the time, makes up your remaining equity.

 

[barbados]

An interesting and familiar alignment. The mathematical version of the occurrence of this or that event has already been suggested to you by the guys. However, this is not enough, in my opinion. What does your intuition tell you? I had a similar event a long time ago. My intuition told me to fold the cards. But I went all-in and lost. So there was an experience.

 

[eetenor]

Not sure how this post got a title with "$200 NLHE...". Buy-in minimum is $100, maximum is $300.
In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
__________________

Thank you for posting

Preplanning a hand is a skill we practice off table to be able to use in game when we have less time and more pressure.
Once we take an action like raising AQss we then have to think about what next-

1 What to do if raised
2 What range just calls---position based
3 What to do if we hit flop or miss it----How do we get value--bet- XR -check for later street value/ how do we get folds?
4 How do we get to showdown---pot control-- bet----check call ?
5 How do we play draws?
If you take the time to think about the above to preplan a hand preflop it will help in game

As played
On this flop We have a combo draw and we can rep a made hand as we have lots of KX hands
Even if we are behind at the moment we can easily make the best hand and when we do we want the pot to be large
Therefore we can bet- call raise on the flop easily. Lead flop 100% of the time is the correct play here.

As played we can call and gamble or fold The shove suggests the V's hand is weak not a ten not a full house most often so we have 45% or more equity fine to gamble in that spot.

Hope this helps

 

[cheeeer]

I don't know what is Bad Beat Jackpot. I doubt he would has played like this with full house or quads. So you have 28% to get a straight, flush. possible A. I think he could had had AQ too or K.

 

[freddydr87]

i fold with out thinking to much,vilain mades a hudge overbet even with a strong combo draw we dont hav the odds for calling, the spades and the J probably dont suit you, you have 1 out, the jackpot is good iff you are in front and vilain badbeats you,but calling triying to hit the jackpot thats big gamble.

 

[najisami]

Not sure how this post got a title with "$200 NLHE...". Buy-in minimum is $100, maximum is $300.
In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
__________________

It would've been helpful if you had an idea about your opponent tendencies, but the way the hand has been played, the call became kind of tough because now you only have one card left to come (Except if villain is a maniac). I definitely would've played the hand differently. You were the aggressor and you got a great flop, a continuation bet could've made things a lot easier...

 

[siberianspecial]

Mathematically, this hand should be called, but depending on the position I would go All In on this flop.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I'm not sure why so many people want to call here. I think this is a snap fold, nothing to think about. Even some of Vs bluffs have Hero crushed. I agree with others to c-bet this flop as you can get better hands to fold, and can outdraw lots of strong hands but after the flop goes x/x and hero checks turn and gets jammed on for $100 it's just not close. Unless V turns over his hand and shows you a naked diamond draw or some hand we beat just fold. Here are a few expected value calculations to help illustrate:

Pot is $115 after his bet, we need to call $100 to see the river. Nice round numbers.

If V has pocket 2s. We are exactly 50/50. So when we win it's $115 * 50% = +$57.5 and when we loose it's our $100 call * 50% = $50 so over 10,000 of such hands we'll make $7.50 on average. There are much better spots to make less than 4 big blinds by risking $100 on a draw.

V has pretty much any other pocket pair 44-99: $155 * 45% to win = $51.75 when we win - $100 * 55% = -$55 when we lose. So again on average this call is a losing call. And every time we make it we should expect to lose $3.25.

It can get worse. What if V turns a hand like A3 into a bluff, now we only have 37.5% equity! So our call on average looses us: $43.125 - 62.5 = -$19.375

Similar story if he jams Kx here we're expecting to lose 20 bucks to draw against him.

If he happens to go crazy with Tx we are losing almost $60 of our $100 bucks on a call.

And if he has the boat or quads we have the same 1 outter with 2.27% and are losing $95.12 of our $100 call on average.

Even a maniac will show up with hands like A3 and 66 often enough to make this a losing call on average in my opinion. Sure he could show up with QdJd or something like that some of the time. But there are much better spots to bluff catch for this price with almost no money in the pot in my opinion. If you folded and would have hit the bad beat that's Vs fault for jamming $100 with quads with $15 bucks in the pot.

 

[Station_Master]

Snap fold, as per the above post we dont have the pot odds to call. Wouldn't suggest putting too much weight on the bad beat jackpot as surely its him who wins it if you hit your straight flush anyway.
Also why not cbet, were you looking to x-raise. On the flop it would be much more reasonable to call off