$200 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom 2 pair vs. good reg, wtf is he repping

[baudib1]

I Mississippi (straddle on BTN) for $6 in a $1/$3 game, 4 callers, I check my option with 62o.
Villain is obviously competent young player, almost certainly a 2+2 type with tons of online and live experience. He's fairly LAG pre, isoing weaker players often and cbetting a ton but playing pretty snug past the flop. He perceives me as LAG and competent but generally when I've been betting or raising I've had it this game.

Flop:
Pot is $30, 3 checks, villain bets $20, I call $20, everyone else folds

Turn:
Pot: $70, He bets $50, I call

River:
Pot: $170

He bets $50, I raise to $125, he snap shoves all in for $250 more.

 

[blueskies]

Two pairs possibly? The flop bet suggests a medium strength K of some sort. Possibly KJ, KT, K9. So it could be K9, but if that 's the case, I'd imagine the river bet would be larger, unless he thinks you have something like a weak pair plus busted draw. A set is possible but somewhat unlikely since you have a 6 and a 2, and I don't think he would be doing this with 77 or 99, again I would think the river bet would be larger.

If he's really competent, the river play doesn't make much sense. Maybe he thinks you're trying to steal on a busted flush draw? Another possibility is that he's feigning weakness and enticing you to raise him.

Since bottom two pairs isn't that strong and pretty much like TPTK and his flop bet suggests a K, I would have tried to extract value earlier.

 

[bgomez89]

no idea but all of this wouldve been a lot easier if you had just raised flop

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

Why raise river?

Especially against this LAG who's putting this little baby value bet on the river.
I snap call and flip..

Really tough position here, river bet really doesn't add up.. Could be a cold deck though, 22, 66, maybe he caught it for K9?

His stack size really sucks too, he's got enough to pull off a river bluff and also a good amount that you can call to find out he has you beat..

Pretty much why I don't raise river, I probably muck considering LAG players like these, love to set themselves up to get paid off just like this.

I think it's definitely a muck if you ask me, you said he doesn't usually fire past a flop bet, and I feel there's no way he's bluffing here because that would be a terrible $50 bluff on the river. He has you.

 

[baudib1]

I mean I insta-snapfolded to the river jam. I can't come up with any value hands that he'd play this way consistently, he has sets, K9/K7, T8dd, he never has KQ/AK/AA, he'd have to have a ton of bluffs to make this a call.

In retrospect I agree that river raise is terrible; my line looks so FOS he might actually be capable of jamming a 1-pair hand for value but that would sort of be batshit crazy. I just felt he was value-betting thin with a Kx hand and that he could call with KT/KJ precisely because my line looks so FOS.

 

[baudib1]

Reasons for flatting flop:
1. I think his range for betting this flop is bluffs and hands that have huge equity vs. my hand. His continuing range destroys me as I don't think he's calling with Kx hands.

2. I didn't list the stack sizes of other players (I should have) but there were plenty of stacks behind that could check-shove with a draw.

3. There's not much I can really represent and again I'd have to fold to a jam anywhere.

 

[bgomez89]

Still want to raise. Lags hate folding

 

[c9h13no3]

He has a set. I just call three times.

 

[baudib1]

A set or T8dd. Giving a good player just 5 combos here is probably bad but he seemed super confident.

I really like his line if he has a nutty hand.