$200 NLHE Full Ring: Big draw vs a 3 bettors Cbet.

[JOEBOB69]

Hero ~$180 (90 bb’s) on the button.
Villain has hero covered in the big blind.

Folds around to hero. Hero raises to $7with
SB folds, BB 3bets to $20, hero calls.
Flop
Villain bets $30, Hero ?
Do we have enough FE to jam, against a 3bettors range?
What’s the play?

 

[Alucard]

I don't think we have any fold equity vs ATo/ATs+. But equity wise it's 50-50ish. So basially a flip


http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ah8c7c
Equity Win Tie
BU 51.01% 51.01% 0.00% { 6c5c }
BB 48.99% 48.99% 0.00% { AA, ATs+, AJo+ }

If you add TT-KK & some bluffs jamming there would be profitable I think

 

[JOEBOB69]

If we jam flop what does our range look like? Axc, sets, AQ+
Do we ever have a pure bluff here?

The reason I ask villain folded AcJh face up and made the comment since he had the Ac blocker I had to have a set.
Just made me think.

 

[TenJack]

Why are we playing less than 100 BB? Thats my first thought.

As for what to do here, i like to call flop when im this strong. If we call and villain fires again on the turn we have an easy jam spot. I am happy to get the money in versus AK here though as well if you think v will call.

I would be fine with a raise to like 80 or 90 if we were stacked for more, but i think that is a bad idea here as it basically prices you into any turn/river.

What does a flop jam look like? Probably not AQ, AJ type hands because jamming those on this flop would be kinda silly, you would be choping at best when called. It looks more like 77, 88, A8, A7 that is cared of the club/straight draw.

 

[Hujiko]

Yes we have enough fold equity to make it a +EV play as the hand is so strong that we almost have enough equity if he calls always. But that does not make it the best play.
In position (we have control) I would just call on the flop most of the time if he has nothing he will prob shut down on the turn and a turn bet will pick up the pot most of the time.
Out of position I am more likely to jam but still with so many outs I might also just call.


If he bets the turn if against an aggressive opponent I will raise if against a passive opponent I will call if the odds are right and give up otherwise. If he checks the turn I def raise the turn to try to get him to fold but would try to leave room for a river bet.

 

[JOEBOB69]

Why are we playing less than 100 BB? Thats my first thought.
This is live I’m not topping off every 2-3 hands.



As for what to do here, i like to call flop when im this strong. If we call and villain fires again on the turn we have an easy jam spot. I am happy to get the money in versus AK here though as well if you think v will call.
It also leaves you open when turn bricks and villain bets turn.

I would be fine with a raise to like 80 or 90 if we were stacked for more, but i think that is a bad idea here as it basically prices you into any turn/river.
Yes

What does a flop jam look like? Probably not AQ, AJ type hands because jamming those on this flop would be kinda silly, you would be choping at best when called. It looks more like 77, 88, A8, A7 that is cared of the club/straight draw.

Yes agreed, we will never have a bluff here.

 

[TheBigFinn]

Jam without a thought. Folding is not and option, so if Hero just calls there is $101 in the pot and Hero has $130 behind. If Villain is pretty tight the A on board pretty much guarantees she has a high pair. It also makes it unlikely she has 2 pair with almost no 7s or 8s in her range, not that it matters since Hero needs to hit the flush or straight to win.

If Hero just calls and one of his 15 outs comes in will Villain pay him off with just a pair? She has to call $130 to win $231 and has to wonder how good she really is with just a high pair. If the outs don't come and Villain bets $65 what does Hero do? Hero's 15 outs make him a 30/70 dog. Hero can call $55 to win $165 which is just about right. If Villain bets any more Hero doesn't have the odds to call and puts himself int the position of folding after putting $50 in or calling/pushing without the correct odds.

If Hero pushes on the flop it looks exactly like what it is and Villain has the same odds to call and will call all of her high pairs, fold all of her bluffs and may fold some of here weaker pairs )TT?).

You can't fold with 50% equity. If Hero just calls he gets worse 70% of the time and doesn't get paid maybe 1/2 of the time he hits. Ergo, SHOVE the flop.

 

[formertroll]

i think jam is best. most likely you have 15 outs with two draws so pretty good odds, plus two of those draws are to the nuts (most likely). there's a lot of hands the villian keeps (ace/face, club ace draw, KK/QQ perhaps) but there's enough fold equity to make up for you starting out behind, in my opinion at least.

 

[braveslice]

TheBigFinn: “Hero just calls there is $101 in the pot and Hero has $130 behind.”
I agree with him. I like the jam best here, after flop call villain cannot fold TP vs missed draws and hero cannot fold (he could really making not jamming obvious mistake), thus any fold equity on the flop is good.

I don’t understand why you would call 3bet with 56s under ~130bb deep or even then if our villain is that tight.

 

[TenJack]

I think BraveSlice's comment on calling 3-bet with 65s is correct. We really should just dump this pre. Lets take a more in-depth look at this hand.

1. It is in the bottom half of any range.
2. crushed by 66-AA
3. makes weak flushes and idiot staights
4. very rarely flops TP,

Can we see where I am going? I could say a bunch more stats but i think thats overkill. Indeed, you are in a flip versus most of his non-pair range (41-58 vs AKo) but it is similar to 22 vs AK. You might flop bottom pair on a Q95 board and not know you are ahead.

So to conclude, dump it pre and jam the flop.

 

[Misaki]

if you want to be balanced it's a clear raise/call spot. + we have some feq and we mostly flip here vs villain's range so it's always +ev spot. We always want to play aggresive some draws in proper spots and here you can't imagine a better draw.It's even better than Tc9c because in villain's range there would be some Jx and he could take you some outs

Problem is that most of the time it's a fold preflop. Unless he 3bets like 15%+ on BB vs BU then it's ok.

 

[777alex777]

if you call 3bet with 65s, you should have a plan for the distribution and clearly understand that you have little chance to be ahead on the flop. In this case, you're lucky and you're probably ahead, but do not have a ready hand, so the best will play a raise on the value.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

fold pre. next hand. Not deep enough. need 20-1 implied odds minimum here to call 3b, we have to call 13 more and we only have another 160 back.

this is a clear fold pre and never think about the hand again.

 

[Tuan]

I think it depends on how we play our big hands. If we always raised two pairs or better here on flop, then a raise with this draw could balance our strong hand. If we slow play most of our two pairs or above here, then I would say we just call. I would not shove here because he only bet 30, we should 2.5x or 3x his bet and proceed on the turn.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

We are definitely on the shallow side to play this hand, but I at least thing it's close.

Those saying this isn't even close live are probably more used to larger sizings preflop in live environments. No we're not getting 20 to 1 in implied odds, but this is live poker and people are bad, so I give a little leeway here. $160ish behind and we only nee to call $13 to continue in position... I'm not folding 100% of the time either.

Anyway on the flop we said somewhere earlier that we never have bluffs here... why? If we NEVER have bluffs I feel like we shouldn't have a raising range here. Which I'm fine with, but I don't think is necessary. We have plenty of hands that make sense to raise here.

Value: 77, 88, 87s, maaaaybe some Axs two pair hands?
Super strong semibluffs: 65cc, T9cc
Bluffs: T9s and 65s (non club)

This is around 9-13 value combos, 2 semibluffs that are basically flipping vs villain's continuing range, and 6 bluff combos. I think that's a pretty reasonable approach, although I'm guessing a solver would have you "mixing" your strategy here and only doing each action some of the time with those holdings so that we still have some mega strong hands to call with and have in that range to be able to call down multiple barrels.

But we'll also have the AXcc hands for that so I'm not too worried. Plus this is live poker so this is all a bit overkill imo.

That being said I don't think we should just dismiss bluffing here with some of our weaker holdings unless we think the villain is just never folding off here and never cbetting TT-KK etc. If that's the case then by all means, call with all your draws and raise your sets and two pairs.

Given the question's phrasing, I don't think we have that read, so I'd lean a little closer to balance here than normal, but again this is live poker and a 3bet pot so I don't think we find a lot of bluffs in villain's range pre or on the flop that we get heaps of FE from.

So with this exact hand I'd probably raise just because it performs so well against ANYthing and is at least not a mega-value hand so it provides some semblance of balance and evens out our raising range if we DO decide to bluff with weaker holdings here.