$200 NLHE Full Ring: 1/2 NL deepstack (500 max buy-in) check-raised on turn

[Styrofoam]

This game is a 1/2 NL game at the casino, where the max buy-in is 500. Effective stacks are about 162, I have villain covered.

This is a straddled pot. I am the Straddle. $5 to go.

Folds to HJ who limps, Small blind Limps, Big blind folds. I look down at

AdQc. I raise to $20

HJ Folds, Small Blind Calls. Heads up to a flop (Pot is $47)

Qs 7d 5c

Small Blind Checks. I bet $30. Small blind calls. (Pot $77)

Turn: Jh

Small blind Checks. I bet $45. Small blind tanks for a good minute, counting out 45, then finally putting all his chips in the middle. Raise to $112 and all in.


What should I do in this spot? I am getting about 3.5 to 1, which means I need to win less than 25% to be profitable call. I don't have any real reads on my opponent, but he's been involved in a few pots and not showed down his hand, mostly losing and mucking. My thought process is put the money in thinking I'm probably behind most of the time. Or is this just a super easy fold that I am missing?

 

[gustav197poker]

Your opening is a bit small being the straddle, but if we consider the effective stacks it seems reasonable to me not to make a bigger size. Also, we don't have enough readings to justify the preflop aggression a bit more. So I think I would use a similar size.
On the flop I like the size you use. We want to collect money from worse hands and we are ahead in most queens. Possibly we will get 2 pair raises most of the time. However, it is possible to delay the aggression of the villain, when his range has very strong values ​​(eg sets) because somehow, we are doing the job that the villain wants, and he, will get more fold equity than value in his raise range, when the texture of board is very dry as in this case.
With this last point in mind, I like the ratio change you used on the OTT bet size. The table is still a bit limited for our range, even though we have a good blocker (Ad). Because V is unlikely to want to catch up with hands like KQo who had a chance do it on the previous street. Whereas all QJ suit combinations are more likely in V range. As our our opening it was a little small being the straddle, our range is perceived more wide against this villain here.
We would need some additional tells to make a better decision. Without more information I am closer to folding this hand.
Greetings.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I like a larger pre flop sizing. The way I look at it you're raising the stakes with the straddle and making the BB effectively $5. So a raise to $20 would be fine with one limper (4x) but with two limps I would go $25 and I'd keep increasing as the limps increased or over limp myself if our hand isn't strong enough.

The flop I think is the opposite. We are in position with a monster. Even for our sizing it will be hard for V to continue for a greater than 1/2 pot bet. We will likely only get action from smaller Qx and maybe some sticky smaller pairs. There aren't really any draws to charge given the action.

Turn is a bit interesting given the pot is 77 and V has 112 behind. I just don't see a way we can bet / fold here. If we bet it should be with the intention of getting it in and $45 is enough to accomplish that. Given we've seen this guy mostly losing and mucking I'm not giving him this much credit when we have TPTK for this price. He will show us QJ sometimes but I think he shows us enough other Qx and weaker that we can profitably call. Against a different player type this could be a clear fold but that does not seem to be what you're describing here.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think that given the raise sizing and the price you're being given, you almost have to call.

It's not a fist pump call, but you'll be ahead and up against some random weirdness enough times to make the call profitable.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I agree with previous comments.

Pre-flop raise is good but increase sizing. $20 is closer to a pot sweetener. Depending on the tendencies of the specific table, I'd usually go $30 or even $35 here.

At the flop, we have to call the jam. Sometimes he has worse like KQ and even when we're behind, if we have a 5-out draw that's significant when we only need around 22% equity to have a breakeven call.